The Other Parts of the Fourth Turning
The landmark book by Strauss and Howe focused on demographics. Coincidently major changes in industrial and communications technology overlapped the demographics to accelerate the changes.
The Fourth Turning is a commendable book because it explains the observable waves of civilization through a demographic lens. Turning history from a linear study to one that more resembles a circular stairway with repeating themes helped me to understand how generational changes are driven by common motivations and share similar events.
As events since 2016 have ignited the perception that we are in the Fourth Turning, I suggest that the generational demographics are not the only contributors to periods of rapid change. It is quite possible a corollary to the turnings, but coincident with the last two generational turnings identified, the US Civil War and WW 1/2, there were tremendous changes in the underlying economies of the Western world and the way people communicated. These changes were precipitated by the massive expenditures born of the previous series of wars and the relative, especially local, peace enjoyed by the United States.
Consider the technology revolutions that changed the landscape.
Steam power entered the toolbox of modern industrialists in the 1700s. Representing the potential to drive machines without rest. Replacing the biological engines of the era (horse and human muscles) marginalizes individuals that are not able to adapt. Standardization followed steam and cottage industries born of isolated crafts were driven to the margins. This disproportionately impacts those with fewer assets (time/age or money) as those are the resources necessary to learn and adapt to a tectonic shift in economics.
In the US, the adoption of steam power and the standardized production methods it made possible rapidly grew the Northern economy. It was ultimately the adoption of standardized manufacturing that allowed the North to out produce the South and win victory over slavery. I argue that without steam power, the North would not have had the confidence to challenge the South to what was expected by all to end with a war.
The turn of the 19th century saw the adoption of electricity and petroleum. Electricity meant light and light turned night to day. The natural rhythms of humanity were adjusted even beyond what was available from the torch. Kerosene, soon to be “Standardized” and electricity increased the economic power of the US so that it had sufficient capacity to out-produce Germany and Japan.
The displacement of millions of workers by machines lead the to labor strikes and revolutionary organization that challenged capitalism in the US and Western Europe and overcame it in Russia. The anger from being left behind was channeled toward a greater threat after Japan attacked Pearl Harbor. It should be understood that if there had not been a WW2, there could well have been a Civil War 2.
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Each of these technologies, steam, electricity and oil, caused great leaps in productivity that lead to dislocations of workers and caused schisms in society. The last World War saw the rise of calculating machines. Arguably, these machines only reached widespread use at the end of the last century. The adoption of the machines lead to the creation of a network for communication and ARPANET became the common internet. Fuzzy math lead to neural networks and big data spawning the tantalizing potential of “AI”setting us up for the next potential dislocation. AI is now in its second (maybe third) dawn and getting closer to the technology that Bill Joy warned would no longer need us.
These apocryphal visions aside, Covid has accelerated the adoption of work from home and the end of free money will force the recalibration of productivity that will weigh the application of AI against employment of middle managers. It is impossible to outsource plumbers, but office workers are a very different part of the equation.
The importance of all of this for today’s businesses and their managers can not be overstated. The changes we are seeing are the front edge of a completely different world. The demographic with the greatest purchasing power and, soon, the greatest influence on office and world politics grew up with access to these technologies. Like the first generation to have electricity from a young age, the new world does not know what it was like without machines that acted as an appendage. One would be correct to characterize this as the first generation of cyborgs.
We are reaching the tipping point as the millennials mature in to leaders. For businesses, this requires a fundamental recalibration of products and processes and how to relate to their customers and workforce.
The schism’s we experience in daily news are similar to those at the beginning of the last century. This turning is very similar to the last. Time will tell whether they drive another civil war or if a larger conflict will pull our attention to a common goal.