Other Nations React - Some Better Than Others

Lately the Business Intelligence Brief has seemed to be the Black Death Report with news of the virus outbreak and response dominating both economic and health related headlines. While much attention has been focused on the US and its response the virus has been a truly global threat. South Korea had its first case of COVID 19 on January 20 – roughly the same time that China was experiencing its outbreak. The surge in cases was on February 29 and was the second most infected nation by mid-March. Today the country has fallen to the tenth most affected and the new cases have slowed to a few per day. Over 86% of those that have gotten the virus have now recovered and there has not been a fatality in over two weeks. The country has been pointed to as the shining example of how the crisis should be handled and may serve as the most encouraging signal for the rest of the world.

The factors that have been considered vital to the success of the effort include rapid development and deployment of a diagnostic test that was administered systematically. It started with any sort of first responder – everybody in the health care field as well as those serving as caretakers for the at-risk population. The next wave of tests were administered to those considered at risk. There were thousands of test sites – drive-up locations, private clinics, hospitals, police stations, fire stations and more. Information on what to do and when, was constant and consistent. The quarantine order was explicit for anybody testing positive and the entire nation was ordered to take precautions. The outbreak was meticulously tracked through the use of patient questionnaires and the use of the GPS devices on people’s phones. This was how people who might have been exposed were identified, warned and urged to get tested. The borders were sealed quickly – especially those to China. The population responded quickly and followed instructions to the letter.

     Anyone who has familiarity with South Korea appreciates the ability of the population to respond to threat. The periodic drills to defend against a North Korean invasion transform the country in a matter of minutes. The desk clerk at the hotel changes from his suit to fatigues in seconds and stands ready with an automatic weapon. The immensely crowded streets are empty in minutes. This is a population that reacts quickly and decisively.

     Weeks after the outbreak globally, the US, Italy, Spain and others in Europe are still not able to test health care workers and others on the front line – much less the at-risk population. The various state and local governments still can’t decide whether to isolate, there is no way to track who has the virus or who they have been in contact with. The hospitals still lack basic protective gear and most are unable to offer treatment to any but the most seriously infected.

    South Korea offers an encouraging message – that this outbreak can be controlled and that life can return to normal. It also sends a message that chaos and lack of basic preparation will delay that recovery by weeks and perhaps months.

     The COVID 19 crisis hit India slightly later than in China but now threatens to do far more damage. The government of Narendra Modi was not swift in responding to the outbreak and that allowed the virus to spread quickly and has necessitated a draconian response. There was to be a one day shutdown but that proved to be a ludicrous strategy as the number of cases quickly escalated and caught the medical community by surprise. The order to shutdown for the month of April was issued but with little in the way of prior warning and even less preparation. The collapse of the economy was rapid as virtually all business ceased to operate. This left tens of millions of workers with no income and the vast majority of these are migrant workers that live day to day. They have had no choice but to flee for their original homes in the rural areas of India. The roads are now jammed with people streaming out of the cities and this could well trigger a humanitarian crisis that dwarfs anything else yet seen as a result of COVID 19.

The admonition on social distancing has been completely defied as people are packed in a mass exodus. They have little food or water and many are now traveling hundreds of miles to villages that lack any ability to treat any aspect of the disease. The expectation is that India will soon be the real epicenter of the breakout as millions will be exposed and only a fraction will be identified or treated in any way. The shortage of equipment is already at a crisis level and there are few options available for acquiring more. To make the situation worse there are rampant accusations from some in the Hindu nationalist movement that Muslims are responsible for the outbreak and that has led to an escalation in attacks against the Islamic population. There has been no consistency as far as government messaging and that has made reactions all but impossible. There is still regional denial as far as the threat is concerned and there has been little attempt to even track the course of the outbreak. There has been a total failure to understand the almost instant desperation of the millions of laborers in the cities and towns.

There could hardly be a starker difference between the nations of South Korea and India. There have been a few other nations that seem to have taken control of the crisis - Singapore, Germany and Sweden stand out at this point. Too many others are struggling to gain traction.

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