Oscars 2020 Winners

With the BAFTAs taking place at the weekend it is now pretty clear who will take what in the main categories at this weekends Oscars. The following looks at who will win 6 of the main awards using my model and the data gathered from this award season. The model splits the award season into Guilds, Standard (BAFTA, Satellite, Globes etc.) and Critics, awarding weighted scores to each film based on the awards they have received. The model then takes into account how the specific awards have fared with their past Oscars predictions.

The Best Film category looks to be the tightest, however it's not that close. 1917 is the front runner, having taken the Producers and Directors Guild awards as well as numerous others.

Parasite has a slight chance since the Academy hasn't always followed the favourite over the last few years. Also, 1917 won the BAFTA and they haven't predicted the Oscar since 2014 when they awarded Steve McQueen's 12 Years a Slave. 2 years ago both the Producers and Directors Guild gave their awards to Shape of Water and they have both chosen 1917 this year. In the last 25 years the Producers and Directors have chosen the same film 18 times, with 15 of these going on to win the Oscar. Yet the year before they both picked La La Land and the farce that followed doesn't need explaining. So, 1917 is where the smart money is but it could always be worth a backing Parasite after Green Book sprung the surprise last year.

Moving on to Best Director and 1917 director Sam Mendes is the clear favourite, taking 83% of the points available.

Bong Joon-Ho has fared well with the critics, however it was Mendes who picked up the Directors Guild, which has been spot on the last 6 years and only not matching the Oscars once since 2004, with Ben Affleck for Argo in 2013 (Affleck wasn't even nominated for the Oscar that year).

Best Actress is just waiting on Renne Zellweger to polish up her speech for her role in Judy. She got 78% of the points available in this category

Her toughest competition should have come from Lupita Nyongo'o for Us, however she didn't even get nominated. Also unlucky to miss out on a nomination was Awkwafina who picked up both the Golden Globe and Satellite Award for Comedy performance in The Farewell.

Just like Zellweger, Joaquin Phoenix will be making his acceptance speech on Sunday night for Best Actor for his take on the Joker.

The early critics awards were looking towards Adam Driver for Marriage Story, but his chances have faded. The Globe went to Phoenix and they have been spot on every year since 2013. Just like Awkwafina, Taron Egerton was unfortunate to miss out on a nomination after picking up the Comedy/Musical awards for his portrayal of Elton John in Rocketman.

The last two categories I have looked at are the supporting actor categories and these are just as obvious as the other 4 awards. Laura Dern has been hoovering up the awards this season for Netflix's Marriage Story, getting 80% of the points.

Whilst Brad Pitt has got 86% of the points available for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.

From my model some films and stars have been unlucky to miss out on nominations. I've already mentioned Lupita Nyongo'o, however Adam Sandler and Uncut Gems could arguably have been selected after picking several awards and nominations this season. Jennifer Lopez was really unlucky to miss out on Best Supporting Actress for Hustlers having picked up early awards. Song Kang-Ho can also be disappointed that he didn't get the nod for Best Supporting Actor for his role in Parasite.

Thanks for reading and thanks to Numlock News and Walt Hickey, and Ben Zauzmer (@BensOscarMath) for for their Oscar modelling and metrics, you guys are great.