The Orie: First Launch of 2025. Where will the demand come from?

The Orie is poised to be the first private residential launch in 2025. Coming off a strong end to 2024—marked by successful sales at Chuan Park Residences and Emerald of Katong—its performance will offer insights into the resilience of demand for private homes in the first quarter of the new year.

Located at the junction of Lorong 1 and Lorong 4 in Toa Payoh, on the former site of the Policy Security Command Premises, The Orie benefits from a convenient location that includes a neighborhood center with shops, dining options, a soon-to-be-upgraded park, and nearby schools. It is also just 400 meters from Braddell MRT station. The development is a joint venture by City Developments Ltd (CDL), Frasers Property, and Sekisui House, which secured the land at S$969 million (about S$1,360 per square foot).

Spanning approximately 15,743 square meters, the development offers 777 units priced from S$1.28 million for a one-bedroom plus study, S$1.48 million for a two-bedroom (592 sq ft), S$2.09 million for a three-bedroom (850 sq ft), S$2.92 million for a four-bedroom (1,216 sq ft), and S$3.48 million for a five-bedroom (1,453 sq ft) with a private lift.

Several factors suggest The Orie could see strong demand. Since GEM Residences launched in 2016, the Toa Payoh area has not seen a major private residential project, and previous launches in areas with limited new supply have performed well. Chuan Park Residences in 2024 sold close to 75% of its units at an average of S$2,590 per square foot, and Norwood Grand sold 84% of its units on launch weekend at an average of S$2,067 per square foot. The lack of new supply may signal pent-up demand from upgraders who prefer to remain in Toa Payoh, particularly those with children enrolled in nearby schools or those wanting to stay near family.

Another factor is the strong base of HDB upgraders in Toa Payoh, where flats are popular for their accessibility and proximity to amenities. Data from DataSense by PropertyGuru indicates that in December 2024, the median price of HDB flats viewed was S$899,000 (Figure 1), while the 75th percentile was S$1.2 million, suggesting that more HDB owners are financially able to upgrade (Figure 1). Additionally, the area saw 1,648 four-room HDB flats completed between 2018 and 2020, creating a significant pool of potential upgraders in District 12. Some upgraders may come from neighbouring areas such as Bidadari Park Drive, Alkaff Crescent, or Toa Payoh East.

Figure 1 Demand Median Price Trends of HDB resale flats in Toa Payoh

Existing condominium owners seeking to purchase a new project to refresh their asset lease tenure could also consider The Orie. For example, owners who purchased at Gem Residences in 2022 might realise close to a 14% increase in home prices by the first quarter of 2025, potentially enabling them to purchase a new unit (Figure 2).

Figure 2 Gem Residences Median Unit Price ($ per sq ft)

The indicative prices of The Orie appear to align with the budgets of many property seekers looking for non-landed private homes in District 12. According to data from DataSense by PropertyGuru in December 2024, the median price property seekers target is around S$1.7 million, with approximately 25% focusing on listings priced at S$2.3 million and above. Specifically for The Orie, units sized between 751 and 1,000 square feet have attracted the highest number of views at a median price of around S$2.2 million.

With strong U.S. job growth in December 2024, there was initially some doubt regarding further interest rate cuts in 2025. The lower possibility of rate cuts is likely to encourage to enter now rather than later. Considering its location, pricing, and demand drivers, The Orie appears well-positioned to achieve promising sales when it launches.