ORGANIZATIONAL RESILIENCE: BLACK SWAN The impact of the Highly Improbable, UNPREDICTABLE CRISIS PREPAREDNESS THROUGH TO RECOVERY.
A 5 Day Course Introducing the Black Swan Theory by Author Nassim Nicholas Taleb and incorporating International Best Practice for Crisis & Emergency Preparedness and Response.
Dr. Bill Pomfret shares his 40 years of experience and the lessons learned in crisis and emergency management while focusing on best practices in maintaining organizational resilience and responding to human needs during and after a crisis including Disaster Recovery.
Introduction: Every business, industry, institution, or government facility, regardless of size or location, is threatened daily by a variety of potentially devastating events that could impede the successful continuity of business performance. In fact, a minor incident may result in a catastrophic conclusion if there is insufficient preplanning regarding how to handle a crisis or disasters when they occur.
Whether the lack of crisis or emergency response planning is caused by the press of daily business activity or from apathy is unimportant. The fact remains that if a situation should arise that could substantially affect the health and welfare of people, and the destruction of property, and no plans exist to cope with the situation, the bottom line is total chaos.
This well-established 5 day course, presented in a dozen countries, and a wide selection of industries incorporates a plan that provides the model for your organization to formulate one or more plans to deal with unexpected Black Swan or undesirable events which we call a Crisis or Emergency.
The model was not intended to be a complete, detailed emergency response plan that would “fit” your organization’s requirements. On the contrary, it is only a guide; there are too many complex conditions and facets to each organization’s crisis or emergency response requirements. Instead, this model was prepared to define the key aspects to be considered in planning to cope with disaster.
Designed For: CEO’s, Executives and managers with crisis and emergency management responsibilities, response team members, specialists in each of the following risk management aspects, safety & loss prevention specialists, HR and training managers, maintenance and engineering
This course will incorporate the risk management aspects of the following:
- Six stages of communicating in a crisis
- Cyber Attack, Advanced Persistent Threats, Hactivision,
- Executive Protection
- Earthquake & Tsunami
- Terrorism, Biological, Chemical, Radiological, Nuclear
- The Incident Command System
- Banking Scandals
- Pollution & Oil Spills
- Crisis Leadership Competencies
- Product Recall examples
- Controlling Social Media
- Marine and Aviation Incidents
This course will make maximum use of professional PowerPoint presentations, Individual and group exercises, DVD’s, Q&A’s case histories, and other participatory methods of learning.
I. Definition of an Organizational/Business Crisis
“Any situation that is threatening or could threaten to harm people or property, seriously interrupt operations, damage, negatively impact the bottom line, therefore crisis management is how well prepared we are to deal with the deal with the emergency”
- Sudden
- Smoldering
- Perceptual
- Bizarre
II. Adverse Business Impact
Sales and profits operating expenses
Jobs Employee morale
Business reputation Competitive strength
Government intervention Legal/Consumer action
III. Harsh Realities about Crisis Management
Most crises can be predicted and prevented: Those that can’t be avoided can be minimized
Serious problems don’t become a “crisis” until one of your publics finds out
The longer a crisis goes on, the more damage it does
The primary concern in crisis management is the Court of Law when it should be the Court of Public Opinion
Social Media requires a quicker response
IV. Defining Your Stakeholders
? Activists
? Bankers/Lenders
? Competitors
? Directors
? Customers
? Employees
? Employee families
? Stockholders/Investors
? Financial Analysts
? Government Regulators
? Government Legislators
V. Managing a Crisis Involves Managing the Reactions of Key Stakeholders
Advocates
Make sure they give you the benefit of the doubt and continue to support you
Adversaries
Make sure they do not take advantage of the situation to promote their own interests
Ambivalent
Make sure they remain neutral (or) choose to support you rather than the Adversaries
V. The Crisis Management Approach
1. Define the Disruption
2. Prioritize Stakeholder Groups
3. Assess Concerned Stakeholders’ Reactions
? Current Position
? Likely Initial Reaction
? Reaction Turning Point
? Key People
4. Develop Reaction Management Strategies
5. Establish a Reaction Action Plan
VI. Initial Chaos
1. Crisis timing invariably is awful
2. Human and hardware communications problems
3. Some of the people you need most can’t help
4. Lack of a game plan for responding to the crisis
5. News media pressure and seepage
6. Social media often compounds the response challenge
VII. Inevitable Aftershocks
1. Discovery/Disclosure of other problems related to the crisis
2. Investigations by federal, provincial, state, local government officials
3. Lawsuits and financial penalties
4. Lost business, management changes, divestitures
(A Sudden Crisis Case Study) Sabotage Response
VIII. The Sudden Crisis Management Plan; Incident Command System:
A. Fact Gathering
Importance of first-hand information
Getting specific details if possible
Focusing on outside problems--Government, news media, etc
1. Assessing the Severity
2. Ranking the disruption--Levels 1 to 4
3. Forecasting change in severity--How soon?
4. Manpower needs--Fatigue and flight-time factors
B. Stakeholders
1. Internal and external stakeholder awareness
? Reactions thus far
? Stakeholder impact on the business
2. Outlook
? Expectations for the next 4-6 hours
? Likely impact on stakeholders
3. Recommendations
? Managing reactions of key stakeholders
C. Standby Statement
1. “This is what we can confirm at the present time…”
X. First Steps to Manage a Sudden Crisis
? Get someone to the scene who can provide first-hand information
? Line up extra telephone support and brief on how to respond
? Set up system for updating local managers and employees
? Get someone in touch with employees’ families--Home and/or hospital
? Arrange for media and social media monitoring support and updates
? Contact government PIO’s who will be involved
? Locate and arrange to update senior executives
? Contact customers and/or suppliers if production is impacted
? Advise other company locations and their PR people
? Schedule food, rest periods and relief for 18-hour day(s)
? Set up procedures for updating field locations
? Line up pagers, cellular phones, 2-way radios as needed
? Arrange with security for appropriate protection
? Set up location and provisions for briefing the news media
XI. Realities of a Smoldering Crisis
? Much more likely to occur and more difficult to identify the crisis potential in the early stages
? Usually a problem that management avoids, ignores or misunderstands in terms of its potential severity
? Human nature and corporate-political concerns often obscure the problem or its crisis potential
? Mismanagement or human errors usually are involved
? Problems like these sometimes go away on their own--which is what management hopes will happen
? These problems reflect on the quality and ability of management--and are taken personally by executives
XII. THE EARLY WARNING APPROACH TO CRISIS MANAGEMENT
MEWS (Management Early Warning System) meetings with key sources of crisis information
Human Resources, Legal, Marketing, Recruiting, Fund Raising, Operations
Management briefing/memo on the problems that have the potential to become a crisis
? Scenario if/when it goes “public” and the likely reactions
? Examples of similar problems in other organizations
? Time commitments for top management
? Potential $ impact
? What can be done to minimize the reputation and financial damage
XIII. Social Media
- The source for business crises
- The solution to some business crises
XIV. The ICM Smoldering Crisis Management Approach--Step 1
A. Define the problem and its crisis potential
1. What do we know for sure?
2. What don’t we know?
3 What could be the disclosure scenario? When?
4. Would it be of interest to the news media?
B. How to See and Size up a Smoldering Crisis Fact Finding
? What is known at the present time
? When did this first occur? How long has it been going on?
? Who is involved or implicated? What has been their role?
? What are the related political problems or other complications?
? Who else knows about the situation? What are they doing?
? What is likely to be the next negative development? How soon?
? What is unknown? What is being done to find out?
? What are the sources of this information?
C. Disclosure Assessment
? Likely disclosure scenario… How soon?
? News media interest -- potential and coverage forecast
XV. The Crisis Management Approach Step 2
A. Define the problem and its crisis potential
B. Focus on reactions of key stakeholders if/when they become aware of this business disruption
1. Pinpoint key stakeholder groups in terms of their business and financial impact
2. Anticipate stakeholders’ reactions based on:
Their affinity for the organization
How similar groups have reacted in the past when this kind of crisis has occurred
C. Define the Advocates, Adversaries and Ambivalent who are likely to be interested and get involved in this crisis
1. Specify any “Others”
2. Note what will they want to know and likely reactions
3. Project the impact and/or financial impact of their reactions
a. Business (Severity grade 1-5) or Financial (Estimated $ impact)
4. Pinpoint stakeholders whose reactions will have the greatest impact if this crisis erupts
a. Smoldering Crisis Worksheets for key stakeholders
5. Forecast the involvement of top management
a. Amount of time and direct/indirect costs
XVI, the Crisis Management Approach--Step 3
A. Define the problem and its crisis potential
1. Focus on reactions of key stakeholders if/when they become aware of this business disruption
2. Develop a reaction management strategy for key stakeholders’ likely reactions
? Stakeholders’ reactions will vary depending on the disruption and how they perceive it affects them
? Fill out or update the Smoldering Crisis Assessment Worksheet for each stakeholder group
B. Concentrate on the stakeholders who can have the biggest business/financial impact
1. Focus on the common concerns and reactions that will have to be addressed.
2. Develop strategies to minimize negative reactions
? Actions and/or communications to gain the benefit of the doubt
? Consistent themes and message points conveyed with empathy
? Pre-emptive communications strategies
? Concern for less important stakeholders
3. The Key: Maintain the loyalty of your Advocates, discourage your Adversaries and keep your Ambivalent neutral
XVII. The Crisis Management Approach--Step 4
A. Define the problem and its crisis potential
1. Focus on reactions of key stakeholders if/when they become aware of this business disruption
2. Develop a reaction management strategy for key stakeholders
3. Establish a Reaction-Action Plan for important stakeholder groups to minimize disruptions
? Advocates--To maintain their loyalty and financial support
? Adversaries--To discourage them getting involved
? Ambivalent--To stay on the sidelines and / or provide tactical support
B. Define steps to minimize negative reactions of Advocates, Adversaries and Ambivalent if / when the problem erupts
- Estimate the management time and out of pocket expenses based on what has to be done and who is responsible for each action item
- Use the time and cost estimates to brief management and determine if the problem should be resolved before it becomes a crisis
- Establish the Trigger Point for implementing the Reaction Plan
? What action(s) will indicate that the problem cannot be resolved and will become a crisis
? Who will approve the Reaction Plan and make sure it is implemented
XVIII. Your Crisis Plan Should Include:
1. Overview--Signed by Senior Executive
2. Response Team Chain of Command
3. Line and Staff Group Responsibilities
4. Designated Spokespersons and Disclosure Guidelines
5. Information Verification and Approval Procedures
6. Approved Background Information/Photos
7. Procedures for Securing Needed Manpower, Services
8. Crisis Response Policies (Privacy, News Media, etc.)
9. Logistical Checklists
10. Local and Trade News Media Phone Lists
11. Documentation Forms
XIX. Learn from Your Crisis Experience
? How could the crisis have been avoided or reduced in magnitude?
? What worked well during the initial crisis response; what were the unpleasant surprises and disappointments?
? What little things really made a difference--or would have made a difference if they had been available?
? How could we have saved money in responding to this crisis?
? How well did our existing contingency plans work? What else was needed?
- What’s your assessment of the news media coverage and its impact on the organization? How could we have handled it more effectively?
- Who in our organization really stands out in your mind--positively and negatively-- in terms of their contributions to the crisis response?
? What are the “If I had it to do all over again” lessons?
XX. Give Your Business or Client a Crisis Preparedness Physical
1. What kind of management notification system do we have in place for
Responding to emergencies during non-business hours? How good is it?
2. What’s our corporate emergency response plan like and how sure are we that it will work in a crisis? Has it ever been used or tested? Updated?
3. Who would be our spokespersons and how good would they be in responding to a mob of reporters and TV cameras?
4. How much information would we be willing to give out? Who would decide what would be said?
5. How would we inform our employees, shareholders, customers and other key audiences and how long would it take?
6. What crises have your competitors had and how well would we have done if it had been our business instead of theirs?
7. How well did we handle our most negative news event that went “public?” What would we do differently if we had it to do all over again?
Dr. Bill Pomfret
SAFETY PROJECTS INTERNATIONAL INC.