Orbital Cyberwarfare our next frontier in cybersecurity ?

Introduction

In recent years, the increasing competition between major world powers for dominance in the space domain has raised concerns about the possibility of a space war. In light of these concerns, former US Air Force Major Even “Jolly” Rogers established True Anomaly, Inc, a company aimed at addressing the challenges posed by orbital warfare.

Orbital Cyberwarfare our next frontier in cybersecurity ?

According to a recent filing with the US Federal Communications Commission, True Anomaly is preparing for its first orbital mission. The mission, called Demo-1, will involve the launch of two Jackal spacecraft aboard a SpaceX rocket. The Jackals are equipped with thrusters, radar, and multi-spectral cameras, allowing them to maneuver close to other satellites and gather intelligence. In the event of a successful first mission, Rogers envisions deploying thousands of autonomous spacecraft controlled by both human operators and AI to support the US military in its defense efforts.

While True Anomaly’s website does not explicitly state the development of offensive weapons, Rogers has hinted at the importance of being able to disable enemy spacecraft in the event of conflict. He has stated that tactically disabling enemy spacecraft could be crucial in determining the outcome of a battle.

Some scenario's

When considering the possibility of cyber warfare in space, it is important to consider the various scenarios that may arise and the possible outcomes from both a societal and legal perspective.

Scenario 1: State-sponsored cyberattacks on military satellites. In this scenario, a state-sponsored group launches a cyberattack on a military satellite, potentially disrupting communication and navigation systems. The outcome of this scenario could be a loss of confidence in the security of military systems and the escalation of tensions between the affected state and the state responsible for the attack.

Scenario 2: Jamming of commercial satellite communications. In this scenario, a state or non-state actor jams the communications of commercial satellites, potentially disrupting services such as GPS and television broadcasting. The outcome of this scenario could be economic loss for the affected state and private companies and a decrease in trust in the security of commercial satellite systems.

Scenario 3: Cyberattacks on civilian space missions. In this scenario, a state or non-state actor launches a cyberattack on a civilian space mission, potentially compromising sensitive data and endangering the lives of astronauts. The outcome of this scenario could be a decrease in public support for space exploration and a decrease in investment in the space industry.

A spy balloon ? Or is this a prelude to orbital conflict ?

The recent deployment of the Chinese "spy balloon" flying at a high altitude and gathering intelligence above the USA could be a potential trigger for the initiation of a space conflict. The presence of such a device could be seen as a threat to national security, potentially leading to a response from the affected state.

Nope it's a dry run: Balloons called top ‘delivery platform’ for nuclear EMP attack

High-altitude balloons, such as the one China has floated over mountain state military bases this week, are considered a key “delivery platform” for secret nuclear strikes on America’s electric grid, according to intelligence officials. Take a dive and read this report to learn more Source intelligence

In September 2018 (source Chinese media) a similar platform was tested to launch hypersonic missiles

Pentagon shot down this balloon with a F22

President Joe Biden ordered the action on Wednesday, but it was delayed until the balloon was over water off the coast of South Carolina to ensure no Americans on the ground were harmed.?

"The balloon, which was being used by the PRC in an attempt to surveil strategic sites in the continental United States, was brought down above U.S. territorial waters," Austin said.??Source

Once Twice Three Four times the same mistake ?

It's possible that the balloons you saw were not intentionally out of control. There could be various reasons for the balloons to drift, such as changes in wind patterns or malfunctions in the equipment. It's also possible that the balloons were intentionally made to appear out of control for some reason, but without more information, it's difficult to say for certain. See the camera's computers and sensor arrays... In my personal opnion this is just a prelude to more trouble ahead

Sources

https://amp-cnn-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/02/12/politics/lake-huron-high-altitude-object/index.html (object shot down last sunday)

https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/breaking-canada-shoots-down-unidentified-29194484

Spot the difference between a wheather balloon and intel based spy device

"We are aware of the PRC statement. However, the fact is we know that it’s a surveillance balloon, and I’m not going to be able to be more specific than that," Pentagon spokesman Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder said during a Friday briefing. Source

Force majeure...

"China strongly disapproves of and protests?against the U.S. attack?on a civilian unmanned airship by force," the Foreign Ministry said. "The Chinese side has, after verification, repeatedly informed the U.S. side of the civilian nature of the airship and conveyed that its entry into the U.S. due to?force majeure?was totally unexpected. Source

Greenfield in legal regulations

From a legal perspective, the lack of clear norms and regulations regarding the use of cyber warfare in space raises questions about the accountability of actors involved in such conflicts. It is crucial for states to engage in discussions to establish clear rules and norms for the use of cyber capabilities in the space domain to prevent the escalation of conflict.

This is only the beginning

China's growing interest in space exploration and its potential military applications is well-known. The country has made significant strides in developing its space program over the past few years, including launching its own space station, sending probes to the Moon, and developing advanced missile and anti-satellite technology.

The statement implies that the Chinese balloon incident might have revealed something about China's intentions in space that was previously unknown. However, it is unclear what that incident was or how it relates to China's alleged desire to dominate the orbit area.

The reference to weather balloons and low orbit satellites suggests that China may be interested in disrupting or disabling these systems as part of its military strategy. Weather balloons are used for a variety of purposes, including atmospheric research, meteorology, and communication, while low orbit satellites are used for Earth observation, communication, and navigation.

If China were to dominate this area of space, it would have significant implications for global security and technology. It would enable China to control access to critical satellite-based services, potentially giving it an advantage in military and economic spheres. This would be a cause for concern for other nations, particularly those with strategic interests in space.

What is next ? The Spaceforce procedure

The procedure consists of different phases and sub-phases, each of which describes the escalation of the conflict and the type of action taken.

Phase 0: Pre-War Buildup (Shape) involves a range of activities, including overt weapons testing and deployment, treaties, saber-rattling, and space alliances. During this phase, there may also be normal space surveillance, tracking, and reconnaissance activities, as well as satellite close inspections.

Phase 1: Deployment / Deterrence (Deter) is the trans-conflict phase and involves the deployment and deterrence of weapons. During this phase, there may be provocative but false attacks, demo attacks, and alternate country attacks. Blockades, major covert SOF attacks, terrorist attacks, and the seizure and sequestering of suspected terrorists may also occur. Anti-satellite systems may be alerted, and satellite self-defense mechanisms may be armed. Allied astronauts on the International Space Station may also be armed.

Each phase and sub-phase of the escalation ladder corresponds to a specific weapon type or weapon category, including overt weapons testing and deployment, diplomatic requests and demarches, economic actions, embargos, legal actions, administrative actions, transmitting propaganda broadcasts, jamming propaganda broadcasts, increased spying and surveillance, and unusual increases in space surveillance and tracking activities.

The escalation ladder highlights the increasing severity of the conflict and the corresponding escalation of the type of action taken. As the conflict progresses, there may be an increased likelihood of major covert SOF attacks, cyber attacks, and the employment of lethal force against one's citizens.

In much more detail this escalation ladder looks like this.

Phase 0: Pre-War Buildup (Shape)

During this phase, countries may engage in a range of activities designed to shape the conflict environment and deter potential adversaries. This may include overt weapons testing and deployment, the negotiation of treaties and alliances, and normal space surveillance and reconnaissance activities. There may also be satellite close inspections, where one country inspects the satellites of another country to determine their capabilities and potential vulnerabilities.

Phase 1: Deployment/Deterrence (Deter)

During this phase, countries may deploy and position weapons in space as a means of deterrence. This phase may involve provocative actions, such as demo attacks, alternate country attacks, and blockades, as well as covert actions, such as cyber attacks and political disruptions. Countries may also mobilize their forces and increase their military alert level. Satellite self-defense mechanisms may be armed, and anti-satellite systems may be alerted. In addition, allied astronauts on the International Space Station may be armed to defend against potential attacks.

Phase 2: Conflict

During this phase, the conflict has escalated to the point where weapons are used to achieve military objectives. This may include the use of kinetic weapons, such as direct-ascent ASAT, co-orbital ASAT, hit-to-kill ASAT, and rendezvous and proximity operations (RPO), as well as non-kinetic weapons, such as electronic warfare, cyber attacks, jamming, spoofing, dazzling, hacking, GPS disruption, EMP, RFI, and laser weapons. These weapons may be used to destroy or disable satellites, disrupt communications and navigation systems, and create debris in space. This phase of the conflict is characterized by significant military activity and can have serious consequences for space exploration and for the civilian use of space-based technologies.

Phase 3: Post-Conflict

During this phase, the conflict has ended, and efforts are made to mitigate the damage caused by the conflict. This may include debris cleanup efforts, such as satellite servicing missions, robotic systems, ground-based lasers, tethered nets, electrodynamic tethers, and harpoons, as well as diplomatic efforts, such as negotiations, treaties, agreements, confidence-building measures, and dispute resolution mechanisms. This phase may also involve efforts to enhance space situational awareness, transparency, and confidence-building measures to reduce the risk of future conflicts. The post-conflict phase is focused on repairing the damage caused by the conflict and restoring stability and security in space.

Overall, the space escalation ladder serves as a useful tool for understanding the potential escalation of a conflict involving space warfare and the corresponding actions that may be taken at each phase of the conflict.

The consequences for our information society

A military conflict in high orbit has the potential to cause serious disruptions that could have far-reaching consequences on society. There are several ways in which such a conflict could impact our daily lives, including:

1. Debris: A conflict in high orbit could generate significant amounts of debris, both from destroyed satellites and from the use of anti-satellite weapons. This debris could remain in orbit for years, posing a threat to other satellites and space missions. The debris could also re-enter the Earth's atmosphere and cause damage on the ground. This could lead to serious disruptions to critical infrastructure, such as communications and transportation systems.
2. Disrupted Communications: The use of electronic warfare, cyber attacks, jamming, and spoofing in a high-orbit conflict could disrupt satellite-based communications systems. This could impact everything from cell phone and internet access to GPS navigation and weather forecasting. In today's interconnected world, these disruptions could have far-reaching consequences on commerce, emergency services, and daily life.
3. International Relations: A high-orbit conflict could have serious implications for international relations, particularly if it involves major powers such as the United States, Russia, and China. It could escalate tensions and trigger a wider conflict, including on the ground. This could have major geopolitical consequences, as well as economic and social repercussions.
4. Space Exploration: A high-orbit conflict could also impact space exploration efforts, both in terms of current missions and future ones. It could delay or disrupt ongoing missions, and it could make it more difficult and expensive to launch future missions. This could impact scientific research, commercial opportunities, and international cooperation in space exploration.

Overall, a high-orbit conflict could have serious and long-lasting consequences for society, impacting critical infrastructure, disrupting communications, straining international relations, and impacting space exploration efforts. It is important to develop norms of behavior and international agreements to prevent such a conflict from occurring and to manage any conflicts that do occur in a responsible and safe manner.