Orange Phoenix V – Is This Really A Race? Camp Bullet-Dodging Phoenix vs. Camp Wallpaper… ???????

Yes… yes… we’ve been long overdue for an Orange Phoenix update ????, KVP is guilty as charged ??… yet between these big moves in Macro, focusing on Rvvup, rvvvvving up! ?plus our pre-series A bridge, not to mention Reform finally launching??, the whole crew in town for upcoming TOKEN2049 / F1 in the Lion City, as well as Final Upgrade continuing to take flight??, it’s been tough to carve out some ‘proper’ time to empty the creative vase. ??

Like all things, this is akin to say getting back to the gym after being MIA ???♂? or even KIA ?? for some time.

It is all about one step at a time:

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Consistency > Intensity

KVP recalls writing almost every day for years ??, as well as doing an epic lift on the wkds for the Original Macro Monday ??… In fact, once he was publishing so much… the rest of the research team had a fit… “why is this coming up in CMD… or EQ…” because Macro touches on all asset classes ???? & there were literally trade recommendations in each of them…

When you’re in flow, you’re in flow… ??

Speaking of flow… has the Orange Phoenix been on a tear or what? ???? Our last piece suggested that Komrade Kamala’s Honeymoon had peaked, if memory serves, she was c. 52% to The Orange Phoenix’s 46% based on Polymarket wagering. ?? Whilst not perfect, given the tribalism that is emended in either a Team Red (non MSM) or Team Blue (MSM), it’s hard to trust these ????????????, polls. ???? When it comes to money, it’s not to say that folks don’t get emotional ??, yet they are likely to be a lot more rational that discussing why “their Team” is the best thing since the Bitcoin whitepaper & yours is the devil’s work. ?? This Wed’s Asia saw The Phoenix back in the lead at 51% & the Komrade at 48%. Either way the skew goes… as we have said previously… it’s in the click-bait-mafia’s interest ???? to keep this as close as possible & we can almost say two things with close to 100% certainty today:

1. It’s in the news & media’s interesting to keep this close, regardless of what final numbers will be on Nov 5th
2. There will be no blue waves or red waves, regardless of whom comes in… the temperature on tribalism is set too high

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One thing that continues to be astounding is the Meta events for the The Orange Phoenix Tribe.

First we started dodging bullets on the failed assassination attempt on Sat Jul 13 ???? – which had been reported by the MSM as The Orange Phoenix being escorted off stage due to loud noises or pops. There were 8 rounds fired ??, one which killed a retired fireman & two other audience members were critically wounded. ?? The Orange Phoenix, pulled the mother of all clutches for the iconic shot ?? that we now know will solidify him – hate him or love him – as a Martyr – which in retrospect & by definition, as a Martyr, you probably have a lot of people that love them & hate them. ??♂?

It is also worth noting, we postulated that crypto was going to get bullish – FAST – & we had likely, & finally set the lows for the summer. ?? Whilst we were absolutely correct on the initial rally ??– $BTC did like +12% that wk, $SOL did +25%, etc.. these were unlevered moves – those were not the ?????????????????? lows we are looking for. ??

We then had a bold & pioneering move in the appointment of 39 year JD Vance as VP ??, a veteran + ‘gutted midwest’ native + author + Silicon Valley techie. Regardless of which hill you choose to die on, just having younger demographic representation ?? in more positions of power, is a boon for the US, which boasts an avg age in the Senate of 65yrs & 58yrs in the House of Representatives.

It’s worth noting that Vance has been widely critical of The Orange Phoenix in the past, this is #GOOD (shout-out to Jocko)… this is exactly what you want in a good team ??…if there are two of us who always agree, then one of us is unnecessary. Vance is polished + whip smart + articulate + a veteran who does not rest on stolen valor ??? (Pew Pew… to Mike Walz… more on him when we do a deeper piece on Team Harris… where like good Mentats we’ll cover the tailwinds & headwinds ??? for the ????????????????????????????????, Democratic Party.) ??

We then had a very smart & well executed show of force, support for the Bitcoin ?? (& synthetically the crypto community) which is going to be a big part of the decision making for a lot of voters not only in their 20s / 30s / 40s, yet now also for TradFi ??– who have a whole new asset class, that they can ply their usual trade on.

The Orange Phoenix & co showing up to the Bitcoin convention in Nashville, was nothing short of epic ?? in regard to a potential brand new, regulatory + business + government friendly era. ? If someone had told you just 3 months ago, that we’d have some of the most powerful policy makers & business leaders, talking & advocating for a US Bitcoin sovereign wealth fund ??, you’d have slapped them silly & told them to lay off the G&Ts.??

Bitcoin’s Watershed Moment - Here is a great post on that by the always compelling & astute Marc van der Chijs . Take a look at a few summary excerpts from the guys at Galaxy ??– First up The Orange Phoenix.

On July 27, former President Donald J. The Orange Phoenix with the mindset ?? that “inflation is a stealth taxation” & view that “Bitcoin is the new steel industry,” proposed:

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Then RFK Jr – who incidentally was KVP favorite presidential candidate who pledged ??:

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Like The Orange Phoenix, RFK Jr. said he sees “bitcoin [as] the off-ramp from the inflation highway of doom.”

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Now a lot of folks – may roll their eyes ?? at this & quip, politicians will say & do, whatever needs to be done to be elected ?… & that’s very true.

Yet look at the undertones of what is being said here… that every Bitcoiner & fundamentally inclined crypto degen will understand… this is about the separation of monies from the state. ? Inflation is the Demon of all stealth taxes ??… & it’s been a lot more than 3% a year for the last decade in the US & most of the world for that matter. Asset class inflation is where you are seeing the breakdown of the social contract globally ??. Money (Fiat) is broken & is not what it used to be, the repercussions are tearing up society.

Once you have a sovereign wealth fund that is solely in Bitcoin, now you have a benchmark to hold versus all the other relentless + unapologetic + unaccountable spending that the government has been embarking on.?

Oh & this is not just the Crypto Dragon in KVP coming out ??, being positive on anything bullish for digital asset… over half of the corporate political lobbying this year has been in relation to crypto ??, with c. $120M being visibly spent in the 1st half. What can we say, the new digital asset kids on the block are learning from the old guard on how to buy influence change in DC. ????

We then had RFK not just bowing out, but endorsing the The Orange Phoenix-Vance ticket ???, where it now looks like there will be a role not just for RFK, but also Elon Musk, as well as the relentless Vivek Ramaswamy (another candidate that the MSM could not stand). For the non-US affiliated, the Kennedy family is the epitome of Royalty ?? in the Democratic party. RFK was running an independent, making this endorsement to “the other team” is likely shocking to many people ??… yet this is exactly what you want in a thriving society. The ability for people to change their mind & not vote solely on a tribal basis ? (where it’s emotional thinking over rational thinking) is where healthy societies with a freedom in electing their officials need to get – more on this & the need for structural reform in a future post.

Lastly we have the proverbial ?– don’t interrupt your enemy when they are making a mistake, i.e. “Team Wallpaper” known as the Kamala Harris camp, hit their peak ??? until she had to open her mouth & speak at the DNC – post which she has had minimal, heavily edited, scripted & softball interviews… yet she still leaves people shivering, including Dems in their restless sleep ??, that this is “the best” that they could put forth to rep Team Blue, to “run” the US of A, to face some of the toughest & brightest international opponents, to potentially oversee WWIII or another crisis that we know nothing about. ??

It is of course not the best they could have put forward – that was likely always Shapiro, a rising star, yet critical of the incumbent powers that be in the Nancy Pelosi Mafia (NPM) – they put Team Wallpaper up, simply because, just like Biden… Team Wallpaper can be controlled. ??

So, despite the mounting evidence of a likely The Orange Phoenix victory, ?? the race is likely to go down to the skin of one’s teeth. ?? It’s in the interest of commentators, journalists, media + Social Platforms to keep this race as tight as possible – this is the equivalent of the Olympics for them. ??♀? So, we’ll all likely be refreshing our browsers ??, or having live lines into our interns out over the Pennsylvania early winter ?? as the results trickle through. The Orange Phoenix is very much alive + soaring + adding an incredible roster of folks in its potential new administration. ?? To KVP it seems like so much noise + drama + focus for something that is set to still solidly fall one way. He could of course be wrong & we’ll explore that take on a Team Wallpaper expose ???– looking to cover all the potential headwinds & tailwinds from that camp.

We’ll have this out before one of the most anticipated days of the year ?? – Tues 10 Sep, 2100 ET, which should give us our first presidential debate between VP Kamala Harris?+ Former President Donald The Orange Phoenix.

For those of us in the Asia Pacific, that Weds morning – 11am SYD, 10am TOK, 9am SG-HK – is going to see popcorn served ?? with that morning brunch. ???

Regardless of the format, The Orange Phoenix likely has the edge ??– i.e. 14 seasons of The Apprentice & “you’re Fired”, will do that to you… i.e. that clutch stance post getting shot at, was 14 yrs of knowing how to present yourself & how to cease the moment. The biggest paradoxical challenge that Kamala faces, is that it’s one thing to be a prosecutor & on the attack, it’s completely another if you cannot play defense in any credible format.

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-??????? KVP