The Orange Phoenix - Part II Addendum: Biden drops out, the odds-on Trump winning tick up even higher… ?

We put out a long reflection piece over the strongend - had a touch of editing issues as it was published in draft form (apologies to the Yale alums), yet all fixed now - so please make sure you circle back if you missed it, as we expanded on quite a number of points in its final form.

As of Sun (21/07) US time, current US President Joe Biden has dropped himself out of the US presidential race. Here is his post on X.

“My fellow Democrats, I have decided not to accept the nomination and to focus all my energies on my duties as President for the remainder of my term. My very first decision as the party nominee in 2020 was to pick Kamala Harris as my Vice President. And it’s been the best decision I’ve made. Today I want to offer my full support and endorsement for Kamala to be the nominee of our party this year. Democrats — it’s time to come together and beat Trump. Let’s do this.” - Joe Biden

So this almost certainly solidifies Kamala as the Democratic Nominee which should be set to take place in a little over a month in Chicago, from Aug 19 – 22. Latest probability markets see her at a c. 80% chance to win the Nominee. Some betting platforms early Asia Monday have seen the Trump – Vance ticket get too close to 75% probability of a win, which is huge. Both of these odds are likely to reverse & will naturally fluctuate over the next few weeks, before true price discovery is settled on.

Focus will turn to who Kamala will pick as her VP, which will be largely irrelevant. It doesn’t matter in the grand scheme of things, yet will make for glorious political noise. Other folks, in addition to being VP candidates may actually look to make a play for the Blue Throne themselves, such as: Gavin Newson (likely having run out of ways to make California worse), Senator Joe Manchin is considering taking off his red suit & throwing on the blue blazer once again, of course you still got the outliers like Michelle Obama or perhaps even Obi himself who has not (yet?) endorsed Kamala Haris for the nominee. Unlike the Clintons who have.

Focus will also be on Biden to resign, rather than serve out his term – again, don’t think this materially changes anything. Him resigning would only complicate the works for Kamala’s effort to muster support for the blues.? Even if we get to Aug 19 – 22 & the Dems pull another “Bernie under the bus” technique,? you are competing against someone who’s survived an assassination attempt & who is also the beneficiary of the protest vote against the establishment.

The last part is a key part that most people miss. A lot of voters think of Trump first & the Republican Party second (if at all), which is the rational, correcting decision-making process. Rather than already starting in camp red or blue, then defaulting to whatever turkey or eagle that may just happen to be its current head.

Let's see how the rest of the month plays out.