Optimizing Circular Value [3]

Backcasting our 10 main Circular Outcomes

Part 3 - Our 10 Circular Outcomes

Please note that this article starts here: Part 1 - Internalizing Externalities followed by: Part 2 - The Regenerative Stage. Part 3 is the last section.

Focusing on the "10 Priority Outcomes"

[...] If we look back at the modified Butterfly Diagram, we could then list some of the priority outcomes to be achieved should we be claiming to Optimize Circular Value (OCV).

With these proposed outcomes, any business today would find at least one - if not most or all - role(s) to play here:

Graph: proposed Circular Outcomes any company could be aiming at attaining - with collaborative partners. They are aligned with the several objectives the "Butterfly Diagram" is asking us to reach out to, in the years to come.

In front of each of these proposed outcomes, companies will have to come up with qualitative and quantitative indicators proving their upcoming innovations will be matching or are matching with these ultimate objectives:

Abundant energies is about creating products-of-services aiming at relying on renewable energies thanks to our understanding of abundance of flows;

Recycling phased out is confirming whether the solution provided is on its path to be using smaller loops so that recycling will no longer be needed since it is using too much energy and is often about down-cycling materials;

Decoupled tech-nutrients confirms whether our business models are using less or in different ways our technical nutrients so that decoupling and rebound avoidance (Zinc & Geyer, 2017) are a reality;

Valued manpower is about the assurance that humans-as-endless-energy (W. R. Stahel) are involved in a service based economy while maintaining the value of our technosphere;

Improved human development demonstrates that humans are taking advantages of what the technosphere is providing them with i.e. improved access and better experiences (advancement over growth);

Reused resources is ensuring that we are re-using and valuing all resources in effective and efficient ways according to the Principles and Concepts of the Circular Economy (Secondary production replaces Primary production);

Decoupled bio-nutrients confirms whether our business models are cascading biological nutrients or returning them back safely to the biosphere;

Valued human role is about using humans-as-endless-energy and/or -as-resources to rebuild our ecosystem via restorative activities;

Regenerated lands confirms that we grow more rich soils with our innovation than it was previously the case;

Improved life, health & food is about ensuring our biosphere is well-balanced so that it preserves life on Earth for all;

Applying these Priority Outcomes

Therefore we can apply these outcomes to the electric car market which is currently booming.

Without naming a specific brand, the below graph depicts what could be current results of producing, driving and managing the lifecycle of an electrical car. Obviously, this slide is mainly about showing you the areas of progresses (indicators with a "green check") or concerns (indicators with a "red cross") from our quest for circular value creation. Outcomes are reminded at the bottom of each list, starting with the "green arrow" (indicative here, not confirming that these outcomes are being reached).

Precise data are missing.

Graph: many indicators show that we are not on the path towards achieving the desired circular outcomes. This non-exhaustive list is shown as an example as to which directions we should strive to aim at in our daily business activities.

Abundant energies: electric cars are using - for most of them - lithium-ion based batteries. These are available in limited volumes and in specific - mainly arid - geographies. Costs are expected to increase exponentially in the future as the market grows. The use of truly renewable energies to recharge the batteries remains very limited today.

Decoupled tech-nutrients: in some cases batteries are recycled (used to store renewable energy production in the best cases) and cars are at times ordered on-demand. Both are positive progress towards our "tipping point" - as explained previously - but far away from our main objective of decoupling technical nutrients from economic growth. The capacity of lithium batteries to be reused to power a new car remains too weak today. Emphasizing on distributed product-of-services and eco-design so that parts can be disassembled for reuse and/or remanufacture is here critical should we wish to aim at and go beyond the tipping point.

Valued manpower: at production level, robots are often preferred over humans or humans come as complementing the robot tasks. Possibly here robots should accompany humans in the production of the cars, not the other way around. One needs to start considering robots as limited resources, hence, they need to be used carefully while giving the priority to humans (desired given that they are endless energy, Prof. Stahel). A fiscal approach to this dilemma should be discussed to ease manpower tax-wise while recognizing the real footprint of using robots and future expected pressures linked to using them in abundance (political, ecological, social, financial, fiscal, etc).

Improved life, health & food: driving while emitting no emission is a definite progress. Yet very far from claiming to have reach the "tipping point" i.e. moving beyond it into improving life and health. From a biosphere point of you, we are not achieving the desired outcome here. If you add the extractive and manufacturing activities, producing an electric car is twice as much polluting than producing a conventional car (Source: the Norwegian Institute of Science & Technology). An electric car will thus have to compensate (i.e. drive between 30,000 and 50,000 kilometers) to reduce its footprint when compared with conventional cars. Yet, the complete picture - from extraction to end-of-life - is slightly better with an electrical car: charge with coal based energy (120-140 g. CO2e/km) or charge with nuclear based energy (15-30 g. CO2e/km) whereas conventional cars are at an average of between 140-210 g. CO2e/km.

Regenerated land: to produce this car, we extract sizable amounts of resources leading to huge ecological footprints (as explained above). The speed at which we intend to reach out to the tipping point for regenerated land will also depend on our choice of energy to charge the car: coal, nuclear or fully renewable? As you can see, we are far from any regeneration of land.

Decoupled bio-nutrients: here too this is not happening here. As an example among others, the volumes of water needed to extract the lithium needed for the batteries in arid areas are extremely high.

If we look at the market of electric cars from our circular lenses, there is still a long way to go to not only move towards any clearly identified "tipping point" prior to be reaching the Regenerative Circular Stage. Yet, we now have a better comprehension as how we should go about attaining it by rethinking its design and use.

Setting up a framework recognizing positive circular outcomes of your upcoming solutions is definitely the critical step to more well-being for all of us.

The understanding of how to move towards more circular value optimization is what will be driving our businesses in the years to come, should we wish to achieve this future we most certainly want.

We can help you choose the right indicators/indexes/guidelines to measure your business advancement towards these Circular Outcomes. Feel free to email us at [email protected]

December 2017 update: The Optimization of Circular Value (#OCV) has been featured in a recent report by the Chatham House UK as outcome-based measurement and valorisation tool focusing on "whether a person's needs have been addressed rather than measuring a product circularity per se" (extract of page 15).

The Chatham House UK - the Royal Institute of International Affairs - is an independent policy institute based in London. Their mission is to help build a sustainably secure, prosperous and just world.