Optimism will save the world

I had been missing from the cinemas for a while. I went back a few days ago to see #Oppenheimer, Christopher Nolan's new film.

Leaving aside the more cinematographic aspects or judgements on the film, one of the most obvious elements of the story is undoubtedly the main question that the protagonist asks himself with regard to the scientific developments that he is carrying out. Is the discovery of the atomic bomb good or bad for mankind? Will it contribute to a further escalation towards ever more destructive weapons and a global catastrophe? What future lies ahead for us human beings and what can be done to mitigate the risks of an all-out nuclear war?

A risk to the survival of mankind from which we have not yet emerged and to which are added those arising from biotechnology, artificial intelligence and those due to climate change.

Risks that may suggest pessimism for our future, but is it really necessary to be pessimistic?

Pessimism vs Optimism

Let us focus on one of the recurring themes of this newsletter - #climate change - and start with some data that is always good for not losing sight of rational elements.

If we look at some phenomena over a sufficiently long time span to identify general trends, we can see that these are still favourable.

Prices for solar and wind energy and low-carbon energy storage batteries have plummeted. Global deforestation peaked decades ago and is slowly decreasing. Sales of new gas and diesel cars are declining. The use of coal is gradually declining. Deaths from natural disasters are a fraction of what they used to be.

The crux of the matter, however, is not whether pessimism is accurate or not, but whether it is helpful or harmful.

A frame of reference

To understand what kind of thinking drives positive change, I refer to what Hannah Ritchie wrote in an article in Vox.

We can imagine a frame of reference where we consider two factors: the way people conceive the future and their ability to shape it.

If we put it on two axes we will have on the one hand the level of optimism, ranging from optimism to pessimism. People who think the future will be much better are at one end, while those who think it will be much worse are at the other.

On the other axis we have changeability, that is, how much people think the future can be shaped by the decisions we make today. Those who think the world is changeable believe they have the ability to shape it, while those who think it is unchanging believe we are on a predetermined path and that trying to shape the future is futile.

We thus obtain a table with four quadrants.

Unchangeable pessimists

Let’s start with the pessimists in the bottom right quadrant, those who think that the future cannot be changed. They are the doomers, the unchangeable pessimists. Their position is that we are doomed and there is nothing we can do about it. They have given up fighting for change, paralysed by high levels of anxiety, so they do nothing.

Changeable pessimists

There is a second type of pessimism: that found in the lower left quadrant, which is resigned to an inevitable future, but which thinks that rather than doing nothing, we should prepare for the inevitable. These are the changeable pessimists.

This group is as anxious as the unchanging pessimists, but they take action by promoting extreme and divisive environmental solutions that are difficult to achieve. An example may be the polarising and divisive actions of Extinction Rebellion and the call for all governments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to zero by 2025.

A reduction that is more than desirable in the shortest possible time, but which needs time to cooperate internationally, between governments and institutions of various levels, companies and of course citizens, in order to make the necessary transition.

Unchangeable optimists

Let us turn to the optimists. The unchangeable optimists, those in the top right-hand corner of our graph, are a dangerous group. They assume that the world will continue to improve no matter how hard we work to change it. For them, the use of fossil fuels is not an issue. They look at historical progress and believe it will continue, complacent about the advances made over the past two centuries in health care, energy, technology and education.

Yet even these advances were not natural or preordained. It took the deliberate action of people who were dissatisfied with the status quo, who strove to find new solutions to pressing problems.

Changeable optimists

This brings us to the changeable optimists, the group formed by those people who think that the future can be better if something is done to change it.

They are, for example, those in science or business who work to find innovative technological solutions to reduce environmental impact, find new more efficient materials, improve processes, avoid waste.

They are those who work to educate people about respect for the planet and rights (two factors that are always closely linked), who push for sustainable policies, who try to give visibility to small and large sustainability-oriented innovations.

It is ultimately people collaborating together because they understand that a complex problem such as climate change needs solutions designed by bringing many forces together to create shared and effective responses. (It is precisely that approach towards collaboration and sharing that, with totally different objectives, led to the success of the Oppenheimer-led Manhattan Project).

Changeable optimists do not shy away from criticism of the status quo. On the contrary, they are often its fiercest critics. Pessimism is often confused with critical thinking, which instead allows one to examine a range of solutions, discard the wrong ones and find and refine the more promising ones.

How we can become more optimistic

Pessimism is difficult to overcome because it has often allowed mankind to save its life by identifying threats in advance. However, it is not suitable to guarantee us a better future in the present context.

How do we become more optimistic? A few suggestions:

• Adopt a long-term perspective: consider human progress over time and recognise the huge improvements that have been made.
• Look at changes over time: do not focus only on snapshots of the present, but observe how things are changing over time. Pay attention to the pace of change. Small transformations can be the prelude to bigger changes.
• Understand complex problems: do not focus only on single data and metrics, but try to have an overview. Phenomena are often interconnected.
• Avoid becoming overly immersed in the news to avoid getting a distorted picture of the world. Instead, rely on reliable data and information to gain a clearer view of reality.
• Act collectively: understand that progress requires a collective effort. Alone one does not get very far.

Scaring people into action does not work. This is true not only for climate change, air pollution and biodiversity loss, but for almost any issue we can think of. We need optimism to make progress, but that alone is not enough.

To tackle environmental crises and make life better for everyone, we need the right kind of optimists: those who recognise that the world will only get better if we stand up for it.

That magnificent sun that keeps us all alive will continue to burn for another five billion years. Enough to look far ahead with due optimism and do our part to set evolution on the right track.

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Hello ! I am Antonio Di Bacco, a?business consultant?who guides companies and institutions on their journey towards economic, environmental and social sustainability through results-driven marketing strategies.

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