Optimism Kills

This is slightly (ok totally) different than what I usually post but hearing from a couple of people personally it was something I felt I needed to share. This is actually an exert from my book I wrote a few years back that foretold of some of the crisis we are going through now. The book is "Cultural Cycles: The History of the United States, Why it Repeats Itself, and the Next Looming Reset". In it I call out the end of 2019 into 2020 as potential for something like what we are going through today. All that aside in a recent townhall I was reminded of one of the chapters in my book, and in it I thought there may be relevance for some and hopefully more important, comfort for others…  

On a final note if you are not in the “some” or “others” group above then read this in context of your work and role and relate it to the theme of principled realism and how this message may be adapted to you. And in that keep calm and plan on…

Optimism Kills

With just a glimpse at the headlines, anyone can clearly see that things are bad and getting worse. Unfortunately – as people keep fighting to preserve liberty and to change policies and institutions – truth is (and statistics are proving out), that the cycle has progressed forward and is already beyond repair. It is no longer a matter of if the culture is going into a Reset but rather when and how long it will be there.

It was after I completed writing this book and a friend was reading a draft and asked how I handle everything that is going on and knowing what is going to happen. The problem was that she was stuck in a paradigm of choosing between optimism (hoping to change things back to the way they were) and fear (giving up and becoming pessimistic about where we are heading). 

In a book by Jim Collins, “Good to Great,” he talks about a principle called the Stockdale Paradox (named after the highest-ranking American prisoner of war in Hanoi, Vietnam).  In summary, the Stockdale Paradox states there is a different paradigm in which we should be realistic about our current circumstances while maintaining faith about the future.

The story of General Stockdale – who during the Vietnam War was held captive for eight years and tortured twenty-two times before finally making it home – is an inspirational message and benchmark for thinking during turbulent times and the oncoming Reset. He was asked in an interview how he could make it those eight years – being tortured – and never lose his mind or faith when so many others in lesser situations folded and could not make it out.

He responded, “I never doubted not only that I would get out, but also that I would prevail in the end and turn the experience into the defining event of my life, which, in retrospect, I would not trade.”

General Stockdale lived every day of his life in captivity with faith that he would get out – and that all of what he was going through would someday come to an inevitable end. On the more difficult days, he looked at the painful moments of reality and channeled them mentally to the right places to help survive by maintaining an unwavering faith in the end game. He made – and kept – a commitment to his self that he would survive whatever brutality and horror he faced.

The more shocking response came when Stockdale was asked why so many others broke down or why many died of exhaustion or mental breakdown. When asked about the difference between him and those that could not take it, Stockdale replied, “They were optimists.” On the surface, this may sound contradictory. How can he say that he had unwavering faith he would get out and yet not be an optimist?

Stockdale explained it himself saying, “You must never confuse faith that you will prevail in the end – which you can never afford to lose – with the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be.” He continued, “They were the ones who said, ‘We’re going to be out by Christmas.’ And Christmas would come, and Christmas would go. Then they’d say, ‘We’re going to be out by Easter.’ And Easter would come, and Easter would go. And then Thanksgiving, and then it would be Christmas again. And they died of a broken heart.”

Putting this in context for today, those that pine for the “olden days” or put all their hope in the next scientific discovery or government policy that are framed to protect us are the optimists that die in their own despair. For the individuals that fully grasp the realities facing us today, survival means shifting their paradigms from short-term pragmatism to principled realism. It requires that they stop looking back and begin looking forward and, in many ways, living in the now.

The first thing that must be done is to admit there is a problem. The system is on the verge of collapse – we have created an unsustainable bubble financially, liberties have been stripped from all of us, and abuse of power is rampant. Socially, we are in decay – the traditional family unit is the exception not the rule and we have become tolerant of evil. We live in unstable regions with a nationalism that (if unchecked) could put us at risk of global conflicts.

It is time to get real – the new Reset of culture and the economy is here! There must be (in the words of General Stockdale) “discipline to confront the most brutal facts of our current reality, whatever that might be.” As the optimists try to cling to hope and change from the next election or policy or mourn over the past, we need to take the lessons of Stockdale and be realistic about our current circumstances and faithful about the future.

The new focus does not ignore what is currently happening but prioritizes preparation for the future state. It is getting back to the lowest common denominator and focusing your energies on preserving family, home, community, and self. It is putting time and sacrifice into improving marriages, developing close-knit families, and raising children into responsible adults. It requires one to ground themselves and their families at the intersection of faith, reason, and personal responsibility. Lastly, it means strengthening local communities by working self-sacrificially alongside neighbors and creating a network that stands on its own and is prepared to help take care of its own.

It is not that the war has been lost. The good news is that – like Stockdale suffering through his bondage – I, too, refuse to believe there will not be a tomorrow. There is a new day on the horizon, and we even have a Biblical hope in this promise. 

So, how to answer my friend’s anguished question of how I handle everything that is going on today?

How do I face the Reset and what may be to come?

The truth is I am looking forward and have complete faith we will get through this. As sure as spring follows winter and things need to perish to rise again; as sure that as night comes, daylight follows. I hope to say – when rebirth finally arrives – as Stockdale said “I never doubted not only that I would get out, but also that I would prevail in the end and turn the experience into the defining event of my life, which, in retrospect, I would not trade.”

I could not tell you when or how or even if it will occur within my lifetime, but I never doubt not only that a new day will come but have faith that “all things work together for good, to them that love God and are the called according to His purpose.”