Optimism Bias and Health Behaviour: “It won’t happen to me!”

“I smoke, but I won’t get lung cancer.”

“I’m overweight, but I won’t develop diabetes.”

“I’m not going to adhere to lockdown measures during a pandemic, but I won’t get COVID-19.”

These are all examples of ‘unrealistic optimism bias’ – the unfounded belief that your chances of encountering a negative event are lower than that of other people.

This idea was first demonstrated in?1980?by Human Ecology Professor Neil Weinstein, who found that the majority of college students in his study believed they had a lower chance of divorce or developing a drinking problem than that of other students.

Perceived risk

Perceived risk is a key determinant of whether or not we engage in preventative health behaviours. While this appears to be a sensible basis for such decisions, optimism bias skews this perceived risk.

Interestingly, our perceptions of risk – and our optimism bias – are also influenced by the number of people who are exposed to the same risk. In other words, an individual’s perceived risk?decreases?as the number of people who are exposed to the same risk increases. This altered perception illustrates a false sense of security that arises based on sharing a risk with many other people.

Cognitive dissonance

Optimism bias is extremely common in health-related situations, driving us to carry out unhealthy behaviours despite our knowledge of the potential dangers. However, it could also be argued that cognitive dissonance is also playing a role – where we develop optimism bias to reduce our discomfort with carrying out a behaviour we know is unhealthy or dangerous.

Regardless of whether optimism bias or cognitive dissonance is at play, the belief that one is less likely to experience adverse health issues than others can lead a person to feel bulletproof.

A risky spiral

Perhaps you will be one of the lucky ones who doesn’t get lung cancer from smoking or who avoids COVID-19 despite not following recommended safety protocols . . .

The problem is, being fortunate enough to escape the negative consequences of one unhealthy behaviour increases your unrealistic optimism in relation to other unhealthy behaviours. Before you know it, you have a multitude of unhealthy behaviours, which further increases your risk of ill health. You might feel indestructible, but just as your optimism bias is on the rise, so is your health risk.

Harnessing optimism bias to drive healthier choices

What is your perceived risk of ill health or the implications of unhealthy behaviours? What about your customers, patients, or those you are developing preventative health interventions for?

Understanding the factors that are driving unhealthy behaviours is key to driving healthy behaviours. To learn more, please feel free to get in touch.