OpsCast Week 48: Thanksgiving Travel Chaos: Day-by-Day Weather, Airport Alerts, and Insider Tips to Stay Ahead

This week: The United States is poised to experience record-breaking travel volumes, with nearly 80 million Americans expected to journey 50 miles or more from home. (AAA Newsroom)

This surge surpasses pre-pandemic levels and marks a significant increase from previous years.

Key Travel Statistics

• Total Travelers: Approximately 79.9 million Americans plan to travel during the Thanksgiving holiday period, an increase of 1.7 million from last year and 2 million more than in 2019. AAA Newsroom
• Air Travel: The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) anticipates screening 18.3 million passengers between November 26 and December 2, marking a 6% increase from 2023. Transportation Security Administration
• Road Travel: A record 71.7 million people are expected to travel by car, supported by lower gas prices, which have reached their lowest levels since 2021. MarketWatch
• Other Modes: Nearly 2.3 million individuals will utilize buses, cruises, or trains, reflecting a 9% increase from last year and an 18% rise compared to 2019. ABC News

Weather-Related Travel Impacts:

• West Coast: A significant storm system is forecasted to bring heavy rain and mountain snow to California's Sierra Nevada through Tuesday, potentially causing flooding and landslides. As this system moves eastward, it may affect the Rockies and the Midwest with rain and snow by Thanksgiving. New York Post
• Northeast: A developing storm system is expected to bring rain and potentially impactful snow, especially around the Great Lakes. Major airports along the I-95 corridor, including those in New York and Boston, may experience delays due to wind and rain. New York Post
• Midwest: Early-season snowstorms have already impacted areas like upstate New York and Pennsylvania, leading to flight delays and cancellations. Travelers should remain vigilant as additional weather systems could bring further disruptions. New York Post

Airports Likely to Be Affected

• Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR): Ongoing air traffic controller shortages have led to significant delays, with some flights delayed nearly an hour. Travelers should anticipate potential disruptions and plan accordingly. AP News
• Charlotte Douglas International Airport (CLT): Service workers are voting on a potential 24-hour strike during Thanksgiving week, which could impact operations and lead to delays. AP News
• West Coast Airports: Airports in California, particularly those serving the Sierra Nevada region, may experience delays due to heavy rain and snow affecting flight schedules. New York Post

Travel Recommendations

• Check Flight Status: Regularly monitor your flight status through airline websites or apps to stay informed about any changes or cancellations.
• Arrive Early: Given the anticipated increase in passenger volume, arriving at the airport at least two hours before domestic flights and three hours before international flights is advisable.
• Stay Informed: Keep abreast of weather forecasts for both your departure and arrival locations to anticipate potential delays.
• Consider Alternatives: If your flight is canceled or significantly delayed, be aware that new regulations entitle you to a full refund, allowing you to explore other transportation options. Barron's

By staying informed and planning ahead, travelers can navigate the busy Thanksgiving travel period more smoothly.

Day-by-Day Thanksgiving Week Travel and Aviation Forecast (2024)

Includes impacts on commercial and general aviation airports.

Monday (November 25, 2024)

• Travel Volume: Early travel begins as millions aim to beat midweek congestion. TSA expects to screen over 2 million passengers. (TSA Updates)
• Weather Impacts:

West Coast Storm: Heavy rain and snow disrupt flights at Reno-Tahoe International (RNO) and Sacramento International (SMF). General aviation airports such as Truckee Tahoe (KTRK) may also face delays. (AP News)

Midwest Winds: Strong winds affect Chicago (ORD, MDW) and general aviation hubs like Chicago Executive (PWK). (FAA Delays Map)

• General Aviation Impacts:

Private jet operators in the Sierra Nevada region may require diversions due to severe mountain weather. Alternate routes into coastal airports advised. (NBAA Weather Resource)

Tuesday (November 26, 2024)

• Travel Volume: Increasing traffic as TSA screens over 2.5 million passengers. Major roads in metro areas experience congestion. (AAA Travel Forecast)
• Weather Impacts:

West Coast: Continued rain and snow disrupt flights at SFO, LAX, and nearby general aviation airports such as Palo Alto Airport (PAO) and Van Nuys Airport (VNY).

East Coast Rain: Light rain affects airports along the I-95 corridor, including DCA, PHL, and JFK. Regional general aviation hubs like Teterboro Airport (TEB) may face similar delays. (NY Post)

• General Aviation Impacts:

East Coast private aviation sees ground congestion at high-demand FBOs, with holding patterns likely for afternoon arrivals. (NBAA)

Wednesday (November 27, 2024)

(Busiest travel day of the week)

• Travel Volume: TSA projects screening over 3 million passengers, marking a record single-day high. Roads are gridlocked as 46 million Americans drive. (TSA Updates)
• Weather Impacts:

Northeast Storm: Rain and high winds delay flights at BOS, JFK, EWR, and PHL. Smaller airports like Morristown Municipal (MMU) and Westchester County (HPN) face similar weather issues.

Midwest Snow: Snow showers affect operations at DTW, BUF, and general aviation hubs like Oakland County International (PTK). (Weather Channel)

• General Aviation Impacts:

High demand for private jet slots in major hubs like New York and Washington, D.C., will extend ground waits. FBOs may run out of parking for transient aircraft. (FAA Slot Management)

Thursday (Thanksgiving, November 28, 2024)

• Travel Volume: Lower than Wednesday but steady with late-morning departures for Thanksgiving events. (AAA Report)
• Weather Impacts:

Midwest Snow Showers: Light snow across Ohio and Pennsylvania could lead to minor delays at PIT and CLE.

Improved West Coast: Clearing conditions facilitate smoother operations at LAX, SFO, and smaller hubs like John Wayne Airport (SNA).

• General Aviation Impacts:

Afternoon arrivals to popular leisure destinations may face brief holding patterns as traffic peaks. Resort-town airports like Aspen (ASE) and Vail (EGE) report high volumes.

Friday (November 29, 2024)

• Travel Volume: Black Friday combines leisure travelers with shoppers. Airports see moderate traffic, and resort destinations experience a surge. (FlightAware)
• Weather Impacts:
• General Aviation Impacts:

Saturday (November 30, 2024)

• Travel Volume: Return traffic begins in the afternoon as families wrap up their holidays.
• Weather Impacts:

West Coast Showers: Lingering rain affects airports in northern California, including OAK and general aviation hubs like Hayward Executive (HWD).

Clear Elsewhere: Calm weather in most other regions ensures smooth operations.

• General Aviation Impacts:

FBO congestion at leisure destinations persists, with delays for private aircraft departures in high-demand areas.

Sunday (December 1, 2024)

(Second-busiest travel day of the week)

• Travel Volume: TSA anticipates screening over 3 million passengers, with roads experiencing heavy congestion as travelers return home. (TSA Updates)
• Weather Impacts:

Nationwide Congestion: Clear weather facilitates smooth operations at most airports, but major hubs like ATL, DFW, and DEN operate at near-capacity levels.

West Coast Showers: Rain in Northern California may cause delays at SFO, SMF, and smaller airports.

• General Aviation Impacts:

High departure volumes from resort destinations lead to delays. Private jets repositioning for Monday schedules will experience tight slot availability.

Helpful Links for Travelers

1. TSA Flight Updates: TSA.gov
2. FAA Airport Delays Map: FAA Delays Map
3. National Weather Service: NWS.gov
4. Flight Tracking and Updates: FlightAware
5. Private Aviation Tools: NBAA Weather Resources

By staying informed with these resources, travelers can better navigate the busiest Thanksgiving travel season on record.

BTW: It has been 40 years and 10 months since Van Halen's 1984 album was released on January 9, 1984.

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone! As we gather around to celebrate, let's take a moment to be thankful for all the Jump-worthy moments this year! Whether you're carving the turkey with the precision of a guitar solo in Hot for Teacher or enjoying a meal that makes you feel like you're in Panama, this is a time to savor the good vibes.

We hope your holiday is free of House of Pain and filled with loved ones who appreciate your Drop Dead Legs dance moves after dessert! And if someone shows up late, don't worry—we'll Wait for them because Thanksgiving is all about togetherness.

So, let’s toast to the memories of today, the stories of tomorrow, and all the Top Jimmy moments in between. May your holiday be as legendary as Eddie Van Halen's guitar solos and your gratitude as unstoppable as a Van Halen riff.

Rock on and Happy Thanksgiving! ????