Opportunity Knocks!

TL;DR Forget the top end business jets and look to the bottom of the market for new opportunities....and is the $1,000 smartphone really worth it? :)

Hands up - Anybody who doesn't know that the $1,000 mobile is now a thing?

Spot the difference; smart phone or quadratic equation....Note 8, Pixel 2xl, iphone X, S8+, ax2 + bx + c = 0 or OnePlus 5T.

Arcane algebraic formula or the latest must have consumer electronic device? The use of such catchy product names helps the marketeers persuade us all that we really, really, really must have a new one every 12-24 months despite the fact that the phone currently in your pocket is still working perfectly well....

....and guess what this stuff works, it really works because millions of us (me included) are there queuing up asking them to just "take my money" often even "paying in advance" (sorry, pre-ordering) for the privilege of being one of the first of your friends to own one.

But here's the catch, despite what the manufacturers like to claim there really isn't much difference between your existing phone and the shiny $1,000 must have device. They all look pretty much the same, bezels and screen size within millimetres of each other, they all allow us to speak to other people, document your life on social media and send emoji's or memes to our hearts content.

The reality is that the manufacturers are now operating right on the ragged edge of where our knowledge and technology intersect. Rapid advances in capability are just not possible anymore until someone comes up with the next great leap forwards.

Think this isn't true? Then consider how many times recently we see stories about new smartphones which have a problem or two; its almost like in some cases that they aren't quite finished but we just have to get them out there anyway.

Exploding, bendy, laggy, hackable, dodgy screens. Take your pick. Yet still we buy!

It's not too hard to draw a comparison between mobiles and the top end of the top end of the business jet market. The cycle length is longer being nearer 5-years than 2 but the technology point is absolutely the same. Sure the manufacturer might squeeze another couple of hundred miles out of the airframe and engines; we nudge ever closer towards the speed of sound. Mach 0.97, 0.98, 0.99 anybody?

The issue of speed actually proves my point entirely. Civil passenger aircraft flying beyond the speed of sound was a thing in the 70's and 80's. Concorde, anybody? We are still trying to get back to that point.

Remember the point about how few of us ever use the full power or capability of the mobile in our pocket. How many times does a G650 ever operate close to the limits of its range or performance, really?

Each iteration or generation of the large business jet comes with another couple of million added to the price tag and all for only a relatively small or marginal increase in performance. Yet still the worlds UHNWI's are in the queue - take my money - and long may that continue, but....

As an industry we seem to be obsessed by the big jets. As an aircraft operator you almost get the sense that you have not really made it until you have a big Gulfstream or a Global under management. Yet in reality the opportunities at that end of the market are always limited. The pool of available aircraft is limited by the number of UHNWI's with deep enough pockets or the desire to own one. A flagship mobile has a market of tens of millions; a flagship business jet in the high hundreds maximum.

Think for a moment about Formula 1; each car costing millions to develop each year with engine and aerodynamic technology again at the very limits of what is technologically possible. The car manufacturers justify the expense in two-ways - it boosts their brand and of course today's formula 1 technology is all about making tomorrows family car, safer, more efficient and more fun to drive. Today we all have anti-lock brakes because of Formula 1.

However, in aviation almost the complete reverse seems to be true.

Look around in aviation, all of the exciting cutting edge technology development is taking place right now but not at the Formula 1 or Global end of the market. Instead, light aircraft and new technology is really where it is at.

Battery power, electric, solar, vertical take-off, light jets, personal jets, unmanned and single engine power are all emerging and fast developing opportunities in aviation.

Of course some of these will make it up the line to join the BIG Gulfstream or Global production lines which is fine. But, if we stop to think then it also offers business aviation a huge range of new opportunities.

An opportunity to change or create new business models, create new users, create new markets and to make money. Utilising the latest technology differently, dare I say it disrupting the status quo.

Harnessing the power of that $1,000 mobile to be a portal on a new world of possibilities, low-cost, subscription, inter-city or intra-city all offering point-to-point flexibility, convenience, security and value. All opportunities waiting to happen, if as an industry we can step up and take the chance.