Opportunities await those that make it through.

Walking through London’s Borough Market with its twinkling lights and buzz of people eating and drinking engaged my senses in a way that had been sorely missed through much of the year. Pushing back the door of Elliot’s restaurant cranked up this experience a few notches as that rush of hot air on my face, aroma of warming ingredients, and the chatter of people enjoying a night out was mixed with the heady expectation of food and drink to satisfy my building appetite that makes dining out such a joyous celebration.

The date was 15 December and I’d made a reservation for dinner at Elliot’s restaurant immediately after Boris Johnson appeared on our TV screens the day before to signal the end of Christmas festivities with the tier system imposing an effective lockdown on London and much of the south east of England.

With no reopening date in sight for hospitality, I did not intend to miss this last opportunity to be handed a menu and enjoy one of life’s great pleasures – choosing what to eat and drink. To maximise this experience, I make a point of avoiding looking at the menus of any restaurant ahead of a visit, which annoys my children who prefer the comfort of knowing there will be something at least recognisable for them to eat.

After two courses, my wife and son had to shoot off for a showing of Christmas Carol at the nearby Bridge Theatre. Since there was no way I could call it a day at this point, I promised my daughter a dessert (or even two if she wanted) in order that I could prolong the restaurant experience a little longer and squeeze in another IPA and then a prosecco to finish things off.

The trip to Elliot’s neatly encapsulated all that is glorious about dining out and so it was interesting to read the very next day it had taken on a second unit, in Hackney, east London. This was initially to serve takeaway and home-delivered pizzas, along with a selection of natural wines, and to then expand the offer out to a full restaurant proposition similar to that in Borough Market when conditions allowed in 2021.

The opportunity to take this unit came about when covid-19 prompted the Violet bakery to cancel its plans to create what would have been its second site. This will very much be a feature of 2021 – where the problems and failings of some operators create opportunities for others who have the resources to come out of this disastrous period with their businesses still standing.

Certainly, the numbers are pretty stark already. Closures of hospitality firms increased by 76% to 1,621 last year compared with 922 in 2019, according to the Centre for Retail Research. And, sadly, there will be many more to follow when the furlough ends at the end of April, the business rates holiday and the 5% VAT rate come to an end, and the issue of the massive backlog of unpaid rent presents itself and demands some sort of resolution.

For those like Elliot’s that ride out the storm, the opportunities will not only come from the availability of vacant units but also from the reduction in capacity in the market. It is fair to say that much of the industry will probably be relying on this to enable them to return to some sort of normality and, most crucially, get a sniff of what has been an exceedingly rare commodity through 2020 – profitability.

This is certainly the case with The Restaurant Group as its chief executive Andy Hornby has stated if the business can reach 80% of the sales it achieved in 2019, it will be in a better position because of the capacity that has now left the industry. On a per restaurant/pub basis, he suggested the company would be in much better shape. Having not been able to contribute to the likes of Elliot’s or The Restaurant Group’s coffers since mid-December, I, like many other people, will be looking to make amends when they are able to reopen their doors again.