Echoes of the Past: Ukraine

By: Jerome Mangadap

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Piqued Obama traded accusations with Putin on Crimea back in 2014. The US president scolded the Russian president for his country's illegal annexation of Crimea. The latter, of course, denied any wrongdoing and further asserted that the Crimean people had the right to choose which country to align themselves to.

What ensued was a 'diplomatic karaoke' showdown of sorts between the two with Barack singing a circumspect slow rock and Putin belting out a bellicose heavy metal- the contrast couldn't be clearer. At the outset, the US president's tune was flat on Crimea- sounding a bit like a sickly grade-school best-friend chastising a bully for snatching his buddy's blinis sandwich- but eventually got his groove back, compliments of the cocktail of sanctions imposed on Russia, and its unceremonious ouster from the powerful G7 bloc.

His use of condemnatory words was not adequately reinforced with a clear semblance of resolve to make for a compelling case, squandering early opportunities for decelerating Putin's momentum. After condemning the act, at first, Obama could have answered Putin's justification vigorously point by point- carefully 'nuancing' it to debunk his pretexts as he had had while invading Georgia in August of 2008. This verbal Jiu jitsu was supposed to be necessary to slow down the Moscow juggernaut.

Case in point:

Putin: " We are protecting Russians and Russian speaking population in Ukraine..."

Obama's reply could have been:

"We are?likewise?protecting the territorial integrity of Ukraine not just as a close ally, but as a?sovereign?member of our family of nations (UN) which Russia is a member. Invasion is?never?justifiable."

"We are family?here. Let's?not encroach?on each other's border. The whole world is watching. As a gesture of our genuine concern, not only for Ukraine, but for Russia, we are making minimal deployments?as I speak?along the border to prevent an escalation which is in the?best interest of all parties. Rest assured, this is for?defensive?purposes only. I?strongly urge?Russia?not?to react on this deployment and I invite President Putin to sit down with us to?immediately resolve?this issue. This has to?end! Let's?make it happen!"

Obama brought the matter to the UN General Assembly where the issue could be amplified in building a stronger case against Russia whose military adventurism hark back the old Soviet Union's expansionist ambition. America's use of the venue as a message platform is a clear non-verbal clue of America's intention to rally a much broader alliance versus Russia.

He sounded more solid than his tone on Syria. Strategic pauses were more pronounced to make the message more compelling and invite the target international audience to imbibe America's position on the matter. Power hand gestures intensified the impact of his keywords. Overall, the tone reinforced the verbal message well.

However, the US President's delayed actions on Ukraine exposed his sophomoric grasp of this delicate geopolitical event. The absence of a tangible NATO-led defensive military layer around Crimea early in the game, provided impetus to Putin's maneuver of annexing Crimea while leaving allies in Eastern Europe nervous of its "spillover" effect to their territories. In this "high-stakes" situation, time is of the essence. Any delay projects a message of indecisiveness-a weakness that Putin happily exploited.

In hindsight, had the US leveraged the element of surprise by making swift and decisive actions early on before Russia could even react, would have been a game changer for Ukraine and would have preempted the invasion.

Moscow's sending of soldiers over to Crimea discreetly with no name tags or identifiable insignia is not exactly a nonverbal sign of a confident invader but of a wavering leader just ordering a TEST MISSION, if you will, to gauge how strong the response will be from Ukraine and US/NATO forces. Efforts to engage Putin early on were anemic and no clear signs of exhaustive back-channeling efforts were palpable.

Consequence:?President Barack Obama clearly miscalculated on Ukraine. Verbals were not supported by prompt action which allowed Russia to easily annex Crimea and encroach deeper into Ukraine. Although the 'after-the-fact punitive action' was a huge success, it didn't dampen Putin's expansionist resolve and the experience actually gave Moscow a lot of insights to work with in terms of planning the next military adventure. America on the other hand was exposed as a flawed Superpower whose resolve is seen as nothing short of questionable.

With US emerging recently from a tragic Afghanistan exit, Russia, yet again, may exploit this as a psychological advantage to demand more concessions from the Biden's Administration and NATO. Therefore, all America has to do now is to avoid reusing Obama's calculus and borrow a page off Trump's playbook to unsettle Moscow.