Opinion on arresting the propagation of COVID-19 Coronavirus.
We have noticed that various attempts (mostly half measures or postcode measures) to stop the spread of Coronavirus have not worked, rather, the infection rate is increasing across regions and countries. Hence, it is time governments took bolder steps which may be unpopular at the time, but will curb the spread of the virus.
Facts:
? For Covid-19, the incubation period ranges from 1 to 14 days. But most people who develop Covid-19 symptoms do so 4 to 6 days after exposure. Basically, science is saying it takes 1 – 14 days from infection to develop symptoms.
? Science also suggests that the most infectious period is thought to be 1 to 3 days before symptoms start and in the first 7 days after symptoms begin.
? Commonly reported symptoms of Covid-19 – such as fever, cough and fatigue – usually last around 9 to 10 days, but this can be longer. Here, science suggests that it takes two weeks on average to recover.
Based on the facts, I think a total and complete national lockdown of 28 days or One Month together with imposed and enforced curfew, while governments arrange for the provision and delivery of basic necessities; food, water and medicine to the population, will help stop the propagation of the virus. Those who have been infected with Coronavirus will be isolated (to stop spreading it) for long enough to either recover or be taken to hospital for further treatment, and infectiousness will drop or disappear.
Relaxation of the 28 days lockdown , should be immediately followed by enforcement of 7 - 14 Isolation period for all international travellers, irrespective of nationality and where they are coming from, until global infection rates is down to almost zero or Vaccines or Cure found for Coronavirus.
My Layman’s Opinion. Please, share yours
Emmanuel Okoroafor
R&D - Drug discovery and development expertise
4 年The scientific understanding has evolved rapidly. And scientists have been open about this - from saying we don't know for sure but this is what we think to 'based on observations, this is what we have seen'. So no arguments there. In summary, transmission is from person to person. When people stay apart from each other, they won't spread it. The problem now is those making the decisions are going for appearances. They make announcements and interventions designed to look that the government is doing something without it being directed at interfering with the spread of the virus. Why 10 pm curfew - anyone with two brain cells knows it would encourage people to down their drinks quicker, become more inebriated, more disinhibited, and packed together on the streets! Universities not asked to go online etc ... Liberties. That's what's killing us in the West. Your scenario is what saved China - for those who don't know or have already forgotten. There were reports that they literally dug ditches across roads out of Wuhan, and you saw the TV pictures of policed-maned checkpoints. In Italy people fled Lombardi, taking the virus with them when a curfew was planned. People want their liberties, and politicians have a habit of behaving as if the rules don't apply to them. Dominic Cummings comes to mind. And the MP that was going about with symptoms and even after a positive test. I agree with you. The government out to keep it simple, and honest; make it clear saving lives comes first, then liberties, then livelihoods.
"Circuit Breaker" lockdown of less than 28 days will be inadequate. Total and complete national lockdown together with imposed and enforced curfew will make more sense. Science will back the proposed 28 days. During this period, the government takes charge of everything, including provision and delivery of basic necessities; food, water and medicines, to the population, so people have no reason to step outside.