`Opening Pandora's Box

 On his deathbed, a father is calling all his children to gather around him. He asks them to pull out of under his bed a bundle of sticks, simply attached by a thick string and says: “ the one that will break this bundle will get all my money and assets”.

Each one of the children throw himself to the task…to no avail. The big bunch is unbreakable. Frustrated and upset, but hesitative to speak out because of the situation, they all acknowledge their failure in breaking the bundle of sticks.

 The father then goes on saying: ” I see you could not break it when attached, so untie the string and each one will try to break a stick”. Obviously, all of them are more successful in this easier task and the sticks are soon all broken in pieces.

In his last breath, the father gather his children and says: “ this is my last teaching to you, sons: united and attached, even with a loose string, nobody will break you and no one can take what is yours. But each one on his own, you are exposed and easily broken. Stay united”.

I heard this nice allegory from my daughter who heard it from a Rabbi.

True, but not so deep: indeed, you don’t need to be a Rabbi, a scholar, or anything like that, to understand that a tied bundle of sticks will be more difficult to break than a single stick.

Not so deep?..and yet, most of the people able to see the obvious in this fable have voted for a BREXIT…

Countries and civilisations have been wiped down over centuries of Human History. Invincible armies have been defeated, Huge Empires have been reduced to small cities and Eternal principles are alive only because a few books still keep the facts recorded.

Hanging on some past glory, some moment in the history when the Sun would never set on your territories is nice and natural.

Taking a country backward 70 years for the sake of such Nostalgia is not only foolish, it is irresponsible.

The worst part is that the first 18th months will not be so bad. In Physics it is called Force of Inertia: you can’t stop a vehicle traveling at full speed in only a few meters… you need some distance and delay

This is what UK had become, or more exactly, what London is: a vehicle going full speed ahead that no one could stop on the path to success.

Rarely have I seen such an incredible case of “shooting your own foot” situation. Here it’s not only shooting it: it’s removing the leg and then throwing it in the Channel to make sure it won’t be found again.

Yet, this is not going to be so obvious at first. The Force of Inertia will allow Businesses and people to stay pretty much unharmed during this 18 months period.

 Because the politicians are negotiating and they need 2 years at least.

Because no serious company will lay off anybody before they have a back-up or replacement plan in mind.

Because there is so much wealth in and around London that it will take some time before it’s all drained out.

But it will happen. After the first 18 months, if BREXIT is fully confirmed, London will find itself with a vast excess in commercial real estate supply. New office Buildings will stay empty.70 to 100 000 employees will be laid off, primarily the “foreigners”, taking away with them high wages, skills, Business, Profits, etc.

 And then we will enter into a tough, terrible, medium term cycle where the UK will make a painful but necessary readapting in all of the different economic sectors.

 Meanwhile, some countries, encouraged by the seemingly untouched economic situation of the UK (think”Inertia”) may be tempted to do their own Brexit.

French elections are round the corner next year and Marine Le Pen has already understood the political gain she could make of the Brexit.

 If this happens and she is elected, France will become the real danger for the whole of Europe cohesiveness. This would be the again a great example to remind us that isolationism in one country is only creating an opportunity for extremism to flourish in another one.

Extremism is this third-party that wants to inherit of it all. This is the one that would be deterred if the bunch stays attached, in spite of many failed attempts. But will break easily each stick if separated.

Extremism has already started to infiltrate the core of most of Western European countries. BREXIT will help in making it worse, and never any more under control.

The Pandora’s Box is now open. We don’t yet see how It will unfold, but now that it’s been started, it’s time to start coping with it.