OpenAI - You spin me right 'round, baby, right 'round

I probably hold the title for being the only person that writes about AI who has not written about Sam Altman and OpenAI over the past week.

Why? Simply, I wasn't well and ended up sleeping most of last weekend. After that, things were moving so fast that it seemed futile to write anything until the dust had settled. Plus, I've not felt great all week, so I made sure I wasn't over stretching myself. So, I grabbed the popcorn and watched it all unfold... until now.

This is my Saturday morning brain dump of what has been swilling around in my head for the past week. So, normal then... I'll let you decide, but this is my opinion and thoughts at this moment in time. I have more questions than answers.

That said, I do have a funny feeling that there's another twist to all this coming at some point.

I found out that Sam Altman had been fired as I was falling asleep on the Friday night. I wasn't feeling great, but had enough energy to send a message to my friend Michael Baggs

"?? though I feel this is the beginning of the end for mankind somehow. At least he was kept in check. Bets are off and people will throw money at him."

What did I mean by this? Sounds dramatic and hopefully it is. Let's break this message down.

"?? though I feel this is the beginning of the end for mankind somehow." In my sleepy state, this felt like a significant turning point for the future of AI. A sliding doors moment.

Afterall, OpenAI was deliberately structured to advance their mission: to ensure that artificial general intelligence benefits all humanity. Ensuring that mission stayed on track would require hard decisions to be made and a huge resolve, but potentially so unintended consequences.

"At least he was kept in check."

In case you need any reminding. The statement from the board said "Mr. Altman’s departure follows a deliberative review process by the board, which concluded that he was not consistently candid in his communications with the board, hindering its ability to exercise its responsibilities. The board no longer has confidence in his ability to continue leading OpenAI."

What was it that was so bad that we got to this stage? Q* (pronounced Q-Star) is the main theory doing the rounds, as was the apparent over commercialisation of OpenAI by Altman. Q* has definitely got peoples chins wagging and it's potentially the smoking gun, but not the only bullet in the chamber.

What is Q*? In short its next level stuff and a significant milestone on the way from standard AI towards Artificial General Intelligence (AGI).

For a deeper dive you can read this article by Decrypt, but here's a snippet that stood out.

"OpenAI's rumoured 'Q*' could have a vast and varied impact. If it's an advanced form of Q-learning, this could signify a leap in AI's ability to learn and adapt autonomously in complex environments, resolving a whole new set of problems. Such an advancement could enhance AI applications in areas like autonomous vehicles, where split-second decision-making based on ever-changing conditions is crucial.

On the other hand, if 'Q' relates to the Q algorithm from MRPPS, it could mark a significant step forward in AI's deductive reasoning and problem-solving capabilities. This would be particularly impactful in fields requiring deep analytical thinking, such as legal analysis, complex data interpretation, and even medical diagnosis."

Whatever Q* actually is, it was scary enough for some of the OpenAI staffers to write a letter to the board.

If something as significant as this was news to the board, you can understand why they were annoyed. It could have been the straw that broke the camels back, particularly with Sam clearly being more commercially focuses than OpenAI's mission. It's likely that it wasn't just one thing.

Bets are off and people will throw money at him."

This was obvious and links to the first part of my message. Over 700 of OpenAI staff were willing to jump ship from an organisation that has a strong mission statement to their biggest investor who's mission is basically profit.

I'm not saying that making a profit is bad, but if that is the main motivator for making AI or AGI then I think humanity has the potential to be in trouble. Microsoft's CEO was king maker in all this, he and Microsoft stood to win either way.

An instant highly trained and motivated company would have basically slotted into Microsoft overnight, with little down time. Or Sam back at OpenAI with more power than he left with and Microsoft with more influence as a result.

No surprise that Satya seemed pretty relaxed about it all even though OpenAI tech underpins much of Microsoft's AI powered tools. Rumours of Macbooks and HR on standby suggestions they didn't know which way it was going to go, or was planted to add pressure to the embattled OpenAI board.

Did OpenAI employees threaten to walk knowing why the board acted?

In short, I don't think so. Perhaps the ones that didn't threaten to quit knew, or didn't feel they could for one reason or other.

There were also plenty of rumours that money was being offered left, right and centre to Sam to create a new AI company and that it was Sam's first reaction to being ousted.

With all that said, Sam chose to go back to OpenAI, even though he owns zero shares. The package from Microsoft would have likely included shares and performance bonuses. With $500m to $700m net worth, he doesn't need to be driven by money. Though he does at least seem to be driven by commercial success, which would make sense. Even though it is at odds at times with the OpenAI mission.

Wait... we've sort of been here before...

Sam, isn't new to boardroom drama.

"For a brief, eight-day period in 2015, Altman was the acting CEO of Reddit, taking the reins after its CEO, Yishan Wong, resigned and before its previous leader, Steve Huffman, reclaimed his old job. Reddit was also a Y Combinator startup; Altman was its lead investor in round-B funding in 2014 worth $50 million, as well as a participant in its C-series funding in 2017, worth $200 million. In addition, he served on its board from 2014 to 2022."

I would guess that for OpenAI to succeed in it's mission, Sam believes that OpenAI needs to make money and a lot of it. Otherwise it will fall short, finding the balance between it's mission and generating revenue was always going to be difficult.

Surely, all involved know this and perhaps that it is the biggest surprise all. Expect a series on a streaming service near you in the not too distant future.

Just know... There's another twist to this story and more plot holes that Lost.