Open Pass – March 2024: Global supply chains, Fine food price hikes and the US dollar Outlook

WHAT IS OPEN PASS?

Open Pass is our monthly collection of free to view reports and live interviews from our award-winning analysts, economists and strategists.

Ready for the main event…

Welcome to our third edition! Preparations for the first ever HSBC Global Investment Summit (Hong Kong, 8-10 April) are in full swing. This major conference will bring together more than 3,000 delegates, world leaders, major investors and top decision-makers to discuss key trends shaping our future.

Over recent weeks we’ve been sharing Global Research perspectives on themes that will be part of the debate in Hong Kong. In Trade Flows, Shanella Rajanayagam examines shifting global supply chains, and Frederic Neumann explores Asian integration. In Future Transport, Mike Tyndall looks at electric vehicles, hydrogen engines and sustainable aviation fuel. And in Demographics, James Pomeroy asks – with the urban population set for rapid growth, can cities absorb a billion people?

To find out more about what was discussed at the Global Investment Summit, sign up for our next LinkedIn live on 12 April. Dr. Murat Ulgen will share his reflections on what is sure to be a lively and enlightening exchange of ideas. Don’t miss the chance to ask your own question. Details below.

Also in this edition: Pranjul Bhandari and Aayushi Chaudhary discuss India’s strong growth outlook. Paul Bloxham and Jamie Culling explain why fans of finer foods might need to brace for price hikes. And Paul Mackel and the FX team give their view on the US dollar and other major world currencies.

Read on for more on all of these, as well as our recent podcasts and free to view reports. Let us know what you think via [email protected]. And do subscribe to the Open Pass here!

Key content on the HSBC Global Investment Summit

Live Insights: Key takeaways from our Global Investment Summit 12 April 2024 | 10:00 UKT / 17:00 HKT

HSBC’s Global Investment Summit (8-10 April) brings together world leaders, major investors and top decision-makers to discuss key trends shaping our future.

What’s on their mind? Join us live from Hong Kong as Dr. Murat Ulgen , Global Head of Emerging Markets Research, discusses takeaways from the big debate.

Register here for this event, streamed live on our LinkedIn channel

REGISTER ?? https://www.dhirubhai.net/events/liveinsights-keytakeawaysfromou7176239707293409282/theater/

Ahead of the event, we’ve been sharing research on themes likely to feature in the debate, including future transport, demographics and trade flows.

Future Transport - Piecing the puzzle together

Disruptive change is underway in road transport, shipping and aviation, say HSBC’s Future Transport team. As the sector is a major contributor to global carbon emissions, efforts to decarbonise demand immediate action. But software, autonomous driving and mobility solutions are key topics dictating longer-term developments in the space.

Click to view ?? https://grp.hsbc/61107kvYOc?

The Macro Brief - Can cities absorb a billion people?

With urban populations set to rise dramatically over the next decade, James Pomeroy , Global Economist, looks at what cities need to do to unlock their economic potential. ?

Listen to podcast ?? https://grp.hsbc/61108kZ1be

The Macro Brief - Shifting supply chains

Shanella Rajanayagam , Trade Economist, looks at how supply chains are reconfiguring globally and assesses the extent to which countries are moving production closer to home.

Listen to podcast ?? https://grp.hsbc/61106khRPQ

Plenty More to Gain – Regional integration in Asia

Frederic Neumann examines why trade and investment ties between Asian economies are set to grow stronger.

Click to read ?? https://www.gbm.hsbc.com/en-gb/insights/global-research/regional-intergration-in-asia?

Under the Banyan Tree - Globalisation isn’t actually dead, is it?

Frederic Neumann sits down with Asia Economist Ines Lam to discuss how Asian trade proves that cross-border integration is alive and well, despite what the headlines suggest.

Listen to the podcast ?? https://grp.hsbc/61101k2ujZ ?

Economics commentary

India GDP – You need to calm down

HSBC’s Pranjul Bhandari and Aayushi Chaudhary say India’s growth prospects remain strong, with PMIs in the first two months of 2024 coming in stronger than the last quarter of 2023.

Click to view ?? https://grp.hsbc/61106kToji

Commodities Economics Comment

Do you like chocolate? Coffee? Olive oil? Then get ready for price hikes as finer foods get ‘super-squeezed’, say HSBC’s Paul Bloxham and Jamie Culling in their latest report.

Click to view ?? https://grp.hsbc/61100kTono

Are we back? Global PMI wrap up (February)

The global composite PMI rose to 52.1 in February with the manufacturing sector growing for the first time in 18 months. Suppliers’ delivery times improved slightly, but HSBC’s Maitreyi Das says we may yet see more of an impact from disruption in the Red Sea.

Click to view ?? https://grp.hsbc/61105k6uxx

Currency insights

Currency Outlook - Death by a thousand cuts

The broad US Dollar has softened as risk appetite remains buoyant and rate cut expectations have increased again, but it is questionable whether there is enough strength in global activity data to justify more pronounced weakness. Read more from Paul Mackel and the HSBC FX Research team on the US Dollar – plus a summary of our views on other global currencies.

Click to view ?? https://grp.hsbc/61100kvYXI

Under the Banyan Tree - A new era for the Japanese yen?

Herald van der Linde sits down with Global FX Strategist Xiaojin (Lenny) Jin to discuss how a seemingly minor move for the Japanese yen could have longer-term ripple effects for Asia’s FX and equity markets.

Listen to podcast ?? https://grp.hsbc/61105kZyEB ?

Fixed Income Views

The Major bond letter #46 - Big in Japan

Steven Major , HSBC’s Global Head of Fixed Income Research, explains why #bond yields show that the totality of the Bank of Japan decisions over the next two months are what matters.

Click to view ?? https://www.research.hsbc.com/C/1/1/320/vvfkpRN

Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG)

HSBC ESG Sentiment Survey #6: Our key findings

Our survey focuses on financial professionals working in roles related to ESG decision-making. The latest edition captures the views of 291 respondents from 280 institutions representing USD8.9trn in assets under management (AUM). So what’s on their mind?

Click to read Wai-Shin Chan 's take ?? https://www.business.hsbc.com/en-gb/insights/global-research/esg-sentiment-survey-our-key-findings

Spotlight: ESG Integrated 3.0

? Reducing value chain emissions and increasing energy efficiency is critical to reducing the future impact of climate change

?? Current Scope 3 emission disclosures and reduction targets in Asia are inadequate

?? More active stakeholder engagement will be required to accelerate emission reduction plans to meet climate change ambitions.

Click to read ?? https://grp.hsbc/61101kTobz

What is transition anyway? The meaning, the finance, and the complexities

In the world of ESG, the term transition often comes up, but there is little agreement over what it means – is it about energy, climate, or even finance? HSBC’s Wai-Shin Chan and James Rydge focus mostly on climate transition and explore issues around investment, financing and supply chains.

Click to read ?? https://grp.hsbc/61104Zk8WQ

Other recent content

The Macro Brief - The UK’s narrow margins

Simon Wells, Chief European Economist, assesses the state of the UK’s public finances following the March budget.

Listen to podcast ?? https://grp.hsbc/61100XL9Xu

Under the Banyan Tree - China's holiday spending by the numbers

Chief China Economist, Jing Liu , joins Herald van der Linde to discuss China's 2024 growth target and break down the jargon around it.

Listen to podcast ?? https://grp.hsbc/61103nljYB

ASEAN Perspectives - Red Sea, red flags?

Supply Chains will feature prominently at HSBC’s Global Investment Summit

Yun Liu , ASEAN Economist, looks at how ongoing Red Sea disruptions may pose risks to ASEAN economies.

Click to view ?? https://www.gbm.hsbc.com/insights/global-research/asean-perspectives-red-sea-red-flags

Plenty more to gain - Regional integration in Asia

Trade will be a major topic at HSBC’s Global Investment Summit.

Which begs the question: is international trade in retreat? Not in Asia, where intra-regional exports are set to grow to more than USD7 trillion by 2030, says HSBC’s Frederic Neumann . Read his article on why Asia has plenty to more gain.

Click to view ?? https://www.gbm.hsbc.com/en-gb/insights/global-research/regional-intergration-in-asia

And finally…before you leave do you know about our Talking Points newsletter? HSBC Research Talking Points is a monthly roundup of the best reports on our nine themes. To find out more view the latest and subscribe ??

Nine Themes Talking Points - AI rules and risks, hot chips, and China’s Year of the Dragon

In February’s edition David May , Global Head of Research, discusses a big focus on artificial intelligence (AI). In particular, new regulations, tested the performance of cutting-edge AI technology, explored how AI can help weather forecasting, and took a closer look at chipmakers, the brains behind AI.

Elsewhere, he explored China in the Year of the Dragon, as well as urbanisation across the Gulf, Scope 3 emissions, China e-commerce, global trade and green projects..

Want to keep your finger on the pulse in 2024? Subscribe to the newsletter!

Click to view?? https://www.dhirubhai.net/newsletters/hsbc-research-talking-points-7125829669546790912/

Issuer of report: HSBC Bank Plc