An open letter to business leaders re COVID-19

To all it may concern:

Corporate Due Diligence and Investigation (CDDI) would like to make a call for companies to lobby their various governments (local/city/province/national) for a revised strategy with regard to the current COVID-19 crisis and lockdown approaches in Europe.

True, some may state that as a small, boutique risk intelligence firm we are swinging above our weight (and I will get to that/our credibility on this matter), but in short, lockdowns without an endgame in the COVID-19 pandemic will not work. Our recommendations (which are actually those of our sources) would consist of a triple-track approach that would incorporate brief hard lockdown period with aggressive testing and a “mask for all” strategy akin to those seen in better performing states in Asia.

We will delineate these recommendations below, but with regard to our sources/credibility in this matter:

CDDI began monitoring the crisis in January at the behest of two major clients. On Feb. 11, with the permission of clients, we released a short summary of findings/warning to partners and also publicly, noting that Chinese figures were under-stated, that the minimum RO was minimum 4 and likely well beyond, and that we could expect the epidemic to increase to exponential values. At that point, the number of officially infected came to ca. 40,000 with "only" 900 fatalities, yet (despite press reports and inactivity by the World Heath Organization [WHO]) the pandemic threat was clear. Still in February we followed up stating that fatality rates would fall in the 8-10 percent range when hospital systems were over-ridden by virus bursts, and that this was the probable actual percentage seen in China. [Ed. Note--both CEE Cheat Sheet & Crime Report readers and our regular clients will be well aware of our stance on this, beginning in early February, but casual readers may simply hit Facebook and check Corporate Due Diligence and Investigation (CDDI) and scroll back through posts to Feb. 11, as we began posting here in part as we did believe we were providing a public service, considering the widespread misinformation in the press.]

Unfortunately, our predictions proved correct.

Now obviously, we are not virologists. Again, we refer to our sources, many of whom still prefer not to or are barred from speaking publicly on this matter. We can only state that they are well-placed, often high-ranking and always insightful—and we can state that the proof is in the pudding, as the above predictions have unfortunately come to fruition.

With that in mind, their recommendations are as follows (and please note that this mirrors the approach taken by countries in Asia that have managed to “get a handle” the crisis):

·       A mask-for-all at all times approach to slow the spread of the virus while allowing societies to return to economic activities with some sense of normality. The “mask-does-not-inhibit-transmission” is quite frankly erroneous, not based on science and possible based on political-economic wishes or even mis-aligned lobbying. At any rate, this is a mistake. Masks do slow down/limit transmission. In short, masks work. Mask-production should be funded by governments and mask-distribution must go into effect.

·       Aggressive testing and tracking. At this point, many countries in Europe are failing in this matter, with an emphasis instead often being placed on economic stimuli, which is unlikely to bring successful results.

·       Hard lockdowns do in fact need to be put in place, but the time frame cannot be forever/indefinite. The virus will keep its own schedule, so understandably, it may be impossible to predict lockdown end dates. Likewise, “bursts,” such as what were first seen in China, Italy and Spain, and which are now being seen in the United States (specifically in New York City and in the state of Louisiana)—and which are highly likely to produce a series of “extended deadlines” or stop-start lockdown approaches. Unfortunately, the latter will severely damage all aspects of business from retail and short-term financing to greater investment projects to small business to the banking sector. This in turn will create a vicious cycle that cuts into government revenue when it is increasingly need (and in fact, in many countries serious shortfalls already existed). This vicious circle must be stopped.

·      Even if short-term economic stimuli are reduced, funds must be allocated to preparation of hospital beds/space in major cities, as well as to first-responders, to the creation of temporary hospitals and protective gear to hospital staff as well as to bolstering staff numbers.

Please note that CDDI sources do not believe that any of the above taken in singular will be effective. However, all have emphasized a mask-for-all policy, as this will slow the spread of the virus, ease public panic and allow economic activity to return so that hard lockdown policies can be limited instead of ambiguous and open-ended.

Unfortunately, at this time many governments appear to need a push in this direction, thus the call for businesses with economic muscle to use this muscle and push both local and national governments in the direction of the South Korean model (or increasingly the Czech model) in order to turn the tide.

Again, this message comes not only from CDDI, but at the behest of sources who prefer not to or cannot speak publicly at this time (many in the health provider industry have been effectively gagged by governments or employers). We do believe, as do our sources, which range from scientists to virologists to hospital directors, that this is a critical moment in the crisis. At present, the number of official infected world-wide is closing in on one million with a 5 percent fatality rate and a 19 percent rate of “closed cases or cases with an outcome.” Yes, statistics may currently be debated, but this is a very large sample size, is more than simply indicative, and the numbers will clearly grow.

In short, it is time to recalibrate. And if you as a business or business leader have the wherewithal, to lobby for the public good.

And finally, thank you for reading here and in The CEE Cheat Sheet & Crime Report. And take heart. We are all in this together.

Preston Smith