Open elections in Venezuela?

The Venezuelan opposition recently announced an internal electoral agenda that includes holding a?primary on 22 October of this year to elect a single candidate?for?the 2024 presidential elections. However, it remains to be seen whether the 2024 elections will be free of the now traditional Chavista fraud.?Since 2013, electoral processes in Venezuela have been widely manipulated by Chavismo.

The novelty at this time is that the government is holding a roundtable discussion with the opposition in Mexico, where there is an offer – agreed with US authorities – to recognize a?total amnesty for the current hierarchs if a democratic transition is carried out. In other words, what is on the table is the possibility for Chavismo to take advantage of the 2024 elections to peacefully leave power, ensuring?total impunity for all its crimes.?That would be the "necessary cost" in exchange for free elections.

However, Venezuela is not only experiencing an economic and social tragedy, but also an?almost complete lack of leadership: according to a recent survey published by the consulting firm Datincorp,?70% of the population is disappointed with politics and politicians in general.?Likewise, the regime of Nicolás Maduro has a 69% disapproval rating. All in all, and given the situation of the country, these percentages seem reasonably good, in fact, given the circumstances, any percentage below 99% would be good.

The fact is that, according to this same survey, in February of this year, 48% of Venezuelans preferred the next president to be an independent leader, with no ties to the established political parties. Thus,?former national congresswoman María Corina Machado and comedian Benjamín Rausseo lead the voter approval ratings for the next primaries.

These two profiles surpass traditional players such as Manuel Rosales, an opposition candidate who ran against Chávez in 2006, Henrique Capriles, an opposition candidate who ran against Chávez in 2012, or the former president of the National Assembly, Juan Guaidó. Machado, who held a seat as independent deputy between 2011 and 2014, a period in which she confronted Hugo Chávez by focusing on the widespread expropriations promoted by that government. After being expelled from the Assembly by Diosdado Cabello after having accepted the position of "alternate ambassador" of Panama to the OAS, she did not hold any public office in the country.

Venezuelan comedian: One of the most promising candidates?

Although he is one of the most famous Venezuelan comedians in the country, in recent years Benjamin Rausseo has been working to show a more conventional image. For instance, he finished his law degree and later, in 2021, he completed a master's degree in Criminal Sciences and Criminology.

This character presented a formal candidacy in the 2006 elections, although he did it in a tone of political satire, which explains why he ended up dropping out a few weeks after starting his unusual campaign. Will he now present himself as Venezuela’s answer to Ukrainian Zelenskiy? It would certainly be an international coup.

Finally, regarding the expectations of Venezuelans, Datincorp reported that?45% of citizens prefer an electoral solution, "even if it is imperfect",?while?23% prefer a government of national unity between Chavistas and opponents.?Only?19% believe that a radical and military confrontation is the best solution.?It remains to be seen how events within the opposition will unfold. Depending on who triumphs in the primaries, we will be able to better see what landscape 2024 may bring. We will be watching.

By the way, as a side note,?believe it or not, 28% of Venezuelans still trust Nicolás Maduro, while?almost 25% approve of his administration and between 15% and 21% would vote for him again depending?on the circumstances. Incredible but true.