OPEC New Faces, New Games, and New Pains 欧佩克：新人辈出，新使命，新挑战
Dr. Quincy Chen
Managing Director for PetroOverseas Group; Co-founder of Sinostan Consortium & Thinkingtank；Founder of AUDO. 天行健，洲际亚元铸金瓯
World geopolitical orders are changing, global geo-economic landscapes are changing, human beings energy supply and consumption are changing, OPEC is changing too, with new faces, new games, and new pains.
OPEC leader Saudi Arabia just appointed a new oil minister, replacing Ali al-Naimi who served more than 20 years in the position with Saudi Aramco chairman Kalid al-Falih. OPEC Secretary General and OPEC Research Division Director, among others, are being changed too, and so for the OPEC June Summit, there will be more new faces of OPEC governors and envoys from those 13 OPEC member countries. OPEC members may soon expand from 13 to 20 or more than two dozens.
OPEC is not dead or dying as some competitors wished, but is vibrant with new games. Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman is leading the $2T megafund vision 2030, going far beyond oil, beyond OPEC traditional definition and mission. Therefore we Sinostan Thinkingtank foresee three new definitions and missions of OPEC, as the title picture indicated. And recently we just explained some of them in the previous posts.
What will be the OPEC new game contents in more details ? They are much more complicated than IPO in the well established international stock exchange market. We foresee these ten items of OPEC new game contents as:
1) a unified geo-economic bank;
2) a unified Free Trade Agreement;
3) a unified currency representing regional economy;
4) a unified energy oriented investment fund and bond;
5) a unified overseas strategic reserve center network;
6) gradually shift petroleum as the main feedstock for petrochemical and chemical plants;
7) convert instant renewable energy to persistent energy
8) sponsor planet energy exploration and production, such as the Moon Helium-3 capturing and transporting back to the Earth as new energy;
9) different from those out-of-ammo central bank QE and stagnant economies, innovate OPEC-led energy economic momentum to stimulate world and regional economic growth;
10) last but not the least, collaborate with other geo-economic organizations to bring peace and prosperity to the Middle East.
No pain, no gain. If OPEC members cannot restrain their sometime overstretched individual interest or forgive their historical rival conflicts, they even cannot reach the symbolic oil output freeze agreement, nor can then accomplish any of the new game contents as listed in the above.
OPEC member countries should prepare their national securities, state fiscal budgets, social mentality and other aspects so as to face these challenges and pains:
A) low oil price ($30/bbl to $60/bbl) as NORM for quite a long time period;
B) geopolitical pressure from outside;
C) regional extremists terror attacks;
D) Financial wars from foreign exchange capital hedging to cyber hacking;
E) Corruption and money laundry;
......
Finally we wish the upcoming OPEC June Summit very successful with new agenda including some of the new game contents listed in the above.
Managing Director for PetroOverseas Group; Co-founder of Sinostan Consortium & Thinkingtank；Founder of AUDO. 天行健，洲际亚元铸金瓯
8 年New norm: current $50/bbl is kind of equivalent to $80/bbl in 2014. So if oil price goes up to $60/bbl -- $65/bbl in 2017, then it will be equivalent to $100/bbl in 2014. Exception: If OPEC starts some active moves in oil output freezing or even cutting, then no need to wait for year 2017, the oil price may go higher than $65/bbl in the second half of 2016.
Managing Director for PetroOverseas Group; Co-founder of Sinostan Consortium & Thinkingtank；Founder of AUDO. 天行健，洲际亚元铸金瓯
8 年五十而立，钻杆林立。油价五十五，钻机王老五（很抢手）。
Managing Director for PetroOverseas Group; Co-founder of Sinostan Consortium & Thinkingtank；Founder of AUDO. 天行健，洲际亚元铸金瓯
8 年In commenting the article "Oil Prices' Rebound Leaves Investors Guessing What's Next", we added, 五十而立，六十而乐，七十如醉。八十如梦，九十疯癫，OPEC 改革油价翻番上百。Let me try to translate the above Chinese comments as : Nothing is impossible in oil price for the second half of 2016: $50/bbl is standing firmly now; then all are happy if price goes up to $60/bbl; if price goes up to $70/bbl, quite some will be drunk in the bar or even in the office; then if price goes on to $80/bbl, most would hit their heads am I in dream? When oil price hit $90/bbl, there will be naked marathon everywhere; But if OPEC takes active move in oil output freezing or even cutting, then $100/bbl or double the $50/bbl, will be within the reach.
Managing Director for PetroOverseas Group; Co-founder of Sinostan Consortium & Thinkingtank；Founder of AUDO. 天行健，洲际亚元铸金瓯
8 年If OPEC takes positive moves for economic reform in the second half of 2016, oil price will rise more, and the year 2016 OPEC net export revenue would be higher than $405 million, that is, no less than that of year 2015.
Managing Director for PetroOverseas Group; Co-founder of Sinostan Consortium & Thinkingtank；Founder of AUDO. 天行健，洲际亚元铸金瓯
8 年Regarding the article " OPEC Claims Oil will reach $65 ", we commented as : That claim could be too conservative if GCC or OPEC takes comprehensive moves in economic reforms including some oil output freezing or cutting.$80/bbl and higher would be possible.