Only Time Will Tell

Across millennia diverse civilisations have come and gone. Usually the only record of their existence are the relics and ruins we find buried deep in the earth or enmeshed within the darkest jungle vines. It would be rash indeed to assume that our civilisation has qualities so unique that would allow us to buck this trend. Eventually our society will be forgotten. And as long as conditions on Earth continue to support carbon-based life, new societies and civilisations will take its place.

The time taken for an entire civilisation to rise and fall is typically centuries, although there have been exceptions to this rule. The Chinese Qin dynasty, for example, was extremely short-lived. But during its brief existence, it laid the groundwork for an extensive imperial administration that would expand and reform under the Han Dynasty that followed it.

A few civilisations collapse in spectacular fashion - others slip into oblivion. All of which raises two important questions. How could something so momentous as an empire or a civilisation vanish almost without trace? Do similar circumstances lead to their downfall?

The source of civilisational failure is probably best understood from within the context of how each is able to prosper in the first place. Four characteristics are of particular note:

1.    Benign environmental conditions and access to natural resources that guarantee abundant food, and provide water for growing crops, for example, are crucial.

2.    Certain socio-economic factors - including a stable population, good governance, centralised institutions, a respected legal system, a diverse and versatile work-force, and adequate financial resources, are keys to societal stability.

3.    The social cohesion arising from shared values, the tolerance of diversity, and an appreciation of philosophy, language, history and the arts, all combine to create an identity and purpose that is almost impossible to rupture.

4.    Finally, the ability of the society’s leaders to adapt to contextual change adds much-needed cultural and intellectual resilience. This is particularly critical where solutions to the most intractable problems facing the society are discovered and implemented, rather than shelved or considered too difficult to resolve.

Obviously, any catastrophic event, such as genocide or plague, can rapidly wipe out an entire population. The Maya, for example, were decimated by the warfare and disease introduced by their Spanish invaders – a collapse expedited by the abrupt imposition of alien systems of faith and governance. This pattern can be seen repeated over and over dating back even to the earliest known civilisation of Sumer in Mesopotamia.

Natural disasters, too, can precipitate civilisational collapse, particularly in circumstances where the food supply is disrupted, or water is in short supply. Scientists believe a severe drought decimated the Khmer empire in Cambodia between the 9th and 14th centuries.

The causes of other collapses – while more subtle – are no less potent in terms of the end result. In spite of mounting evidence, a potential collapse only becomes apparent when many entangled factors are already causing life-critical systems to fail. Omens indicating one or more existential problems typically remain invisible to the general populace, while those with the power to change the society’s trajectory ignore such signs, or dismiss them as transient aberrations.

Ironically, system failures are often embraced openly by the most influential members in the society as justification for their own dithering. Loath to change those things to which they attribute their success, and suspicious of voices raised against this ethos, they remain blind to the actual consequences. Primed to replace fact with fiction - to state that black is white if necessary - their ideology cannot permit a change of mind or a new course to be set. At this stage, the civilisation is already playing out an end-game. Too late to avert a catastrophe, disorder and eventual collapse is now inevitable.

These behaviours were clearly evident in the final days of the Holy Roman Empire, which disintegrated from a fusion of external attrition and inner decay.

Edward Gibbon noted that the economic viability of Rome relied on successive conquests and slavery. This cycle was unsustainable in the long run. Barbarian raids on distant towns eroded the capacity of the Roman army to protect the outlying borders. Fewer conquests were undertaken. But this meant fewer cheaper slaves. As a result, production, including the building of new infrastructure, slowed almost to a standstill. Roads, aqueducts and bridges were all left in a state of disrepair, while fields were left untilled. In spite of this, military spending rose steeply, becoming a constant drain on government coffers.

Oppressive taxation, too, fuelled inflation - debasing the economy to such an extent that everyday goods could only be bought by the wealthy. Meanwhile urban overcrowding, disease, debauchery, and violent crime became rife, while bandits made travel unsafe. As for entertainment, sporting games, circuses and gladiatorial combats were increasingly used to distract citizens from the inability of the Empire to care for them.

There is no doubt that the ensuing social disruption and instability also led to a decline in morals and civic virtue. Trust in authority evaporated as political corruption gained hold. Succession was already shambolic when, in 192 AD, the emperor Commodus was killed, strangled in his bath by his wrestling partner Narcissus. Following that event, the elite’s practice of installing and removing emperors at will, or selling the throne to the highest bidder, became routine. During the next 100 years, Rome had 37 different emperors, 25 of whom were assassinated.

Looking beyond the collapse of the Western Roman empire, it seems a variety of factors, from pressure on public services, religious unrest and social tensions, to overly ambitious military goals, paranoia among the establishment, intellectual hubris, increasing use of propaganda and entertainment as a distraction from the realities of life, and escalating gaps between the rich and the poor, can all play an imperceptible role in the collapse of a civilisation. If enough of them fail at the same time cohesion begins to unravel. Eventually collapse is assured. The remnants morph into a distinctively new form, which rises like a phoenix out of the ashes of the old empire.

Moscow, Beijing and Washington do not remotely resemble ancient Rome. It is probably hasty to make direct comparisons between the collapse of the Roman empire and today’s superpowers. But some similarities are so compelling. Monitoring events over the past half century I am convinced that both Russia and the US are being subverted from within by attempts to recreate what are perceived to be past glories. Both Trump and Putin are nothing more than modern incarnations of a line of ruthless imperators whose abilities are all too human. Xi Jinping might also fit into this category, were it not for the fact that China has not yet reached a point where any downside, from self-serving leadership, is greater than the ongoing economic and social benefits flowing to the populace from previous reforms.

I am not the only person to be making similar comments. Clues abound. Observations of this nature are commonplace. But what real lessons can be applied to the predicament in which we now find ourselves - particularly concerning wealth and power, and how these are misused and abused? Before we attempt such an analysis it is worthwhile pointing to the major shifts that are occurring in our environment globally that makes life so distinct for us all today.

A World in Flux

Five patterns have become critical in comprehending the overarching trajectory of what I refer to as the contemporary human project:

1.    New technologies have changed how, and how frequently, we communicate and interact. They have ensured we are more intimately interconnected, and consequently more dependent upon each other, than at any other time in history. We are on track to see myriad instant global transactions become routine. But this means it is no longer possible to ignore what is going on in other parts of the world. We cannot hide on remote or inaccessible islands, build walls expecting these to insulate us from those with different attitudes or values, or shield ourselves from barbarians who intend us harm. Sooner or later distant events impact us. Yet the idea of a global community-of-mind is still very much a new one, understood to have existed in pre-literate societies, but hardly relevant for more enlightened times. A radical mindshift will be needed if we are to embrace our species as the primary unit through which a more conscious coevolution is attempted.

2.    Meanwhile economic stratification - the condition within any society where those who trade their labour for a wage and those who become wealthy through their ownership of assets are separated by a social gap – is widening into a chasm. The fact that a small number of individuals can own half the wealth produced by a population of well over seven billion people is not only obscenely unfair, it is also vulnerable to all kinds of problems. As the convergence of robotics and nanotechnology removes the need for human design, human decision-making, and human labour, conventional workforces will shrink, creating even more social problems, unless a renewed purpose and ethos for humankind is forthcoming and wealth is distributed more equitably.

3.    Those things that divide us matter far less than the things that unite us. We are all planetary citizens after all - principally and exclusively members of a single human family. Anything else is fiction. Genetically speaking we are 99 per cent identical. Yet we are still socialised and taught to believe that the slightest dissimilarity is a cause to be fearful, and that cultural or religious variances in particular fully justify contempt, outrage, and even conflict, on the largest and most vicious scale we can muster. We are taught that competition is more important than cooperation and that scarcity is more real than abundance - which is why we still insist on designing our institutions to reflect those erroneous beliefs. But it does not end there. Today various forms of social media induct us into a psychological malady whereby our increasingly brittle egos must be shielded from the slightest attempt to confront different points of view. These are the outcomes of design flaws in our worldview. They will persist until we have the collective courage to embrace a more empathic humanity - a more compassionate civilisation.

4.    The most dominant narrative of our time, assumed and implicitly transmitted in all forms of media, portrays life as one constant linear improvement. The product of a model reifying a mix of mostly Western cosmology, scientific realism, Cartesian logic, and the basic pillars of capitalist trade, this is sold under the label of progress, thus conveying the convenient idea of continuous socio-economic advancement. However, one specific biological constraint is failing to keep pace with the exponential increase in technological change. Our brains evolve at a glacial pace - much as they always have of course. Computers accomplish simple tasks far more rapidly, while robots can calculate faster, and make millions of decisions in real time, far more accurately, than any human being. Indeed, some scientists have hypothesised a singularity in the not-too-distant future, where the universal application of artificial superintelligence will trigger runaway technological growth, resulting in unfathomable changes to human civilisation. The truth is our capacity to analyse problems and provide solutions to the many diverse issues we have inadvertently created as an integral part of enriching our lives, is now totally outpaced by the tools we are inventing to aid further development. Even now, machine learning is so rapid and pervasive, that we are willingly delegating huge numbers of critical decisions to robots – from self-driving cars to killer drones. If humans are to retain control over this new artificial species, the best alternative might be to evolve some form of symbiotic partnering between robots and humans.

5.    Finally, the natural environment is changing - in large part due to a rapid rise in human fertility, and thence numbers, easy access to cheap manufactures, industrial processes like inbuilt obsolescence (which encourages our addiction to purchase new stuff while constantly creating so much waste) and an extravagant use of fossil fuel as energy for production and transportation. Over the past half century, at least, we have come to expect a quality of life that is sustainable, constantly improving, and can be enjoyed by the next generation. Industrial production in both manufactures and agricultural yield enabled that dream to persist without challenge. But now we have an environmental emergency on our hands and it is possible that our grandchilden will inherit a world less stable and considerably less affluent than the one we have created. Fossil fuels that powered the industrial revolution are to blame for rising temperatures. Fertilisers allowed us to generate crop yields previously unimaginable, but are now poisoning the soil. Fungicides that inhibit the growth of weeds are destroying hub species in the food chain. Plastics that brought so much convenience are now a serious threat to the environment and especially marine life. And so on…

It requires little imagination to identify the links between these five patterns and the four contextual conditions needed for any civilisation to endure. Nor does it need a Ph.D. in behavioural science to comprehend that we are consistently breaching all four of these conditions. For example:

1.    Although the Earth’s climate has warmed and cooled throughout history, the rapid heating we are witnessing today is almost totally caused by human activity. Sea levels are rising. The oceans are more acidic. Glaciers and permafrost are melting. Extreme droughts and floods are more frequent. Vulnerable species are moving to more hospitable regions or dying out. Crops are withering. Entire ecosystems are changing as heat waves become more common in more places around the world.

2.    Socio-economic stability is wavering as the dominant neo-liberal model falters. The trust previously accorded venerable institutions - including the rule of law and the democratic process - are crumbling before our eyes. The future of the workforce is in doubt as artificially intelligent robots usurp all manner of jobs. In the meantime many problems are consigned to the “too hard” basket due to the complexity, expense, and sheer political inconvenience entailed in implementing long-term systemic remedies.

3.    Fissures are opening up in society that threaten economic stability and cohesion. Aggravated even more by the fears and anxieties generated by terrorism, political baseness and incompetence, the predatory nature of many institutions, corporate greed, violent crime, and media propaganda, there is nowhere left to turn. As our confidence shrinks, and doubts turn to despair, record numbers of people attempt to solve their worst dilemmas by retreating into the caves of isolationism, taking their own lives, or atoning for their bewilderment by attacking others.

4.    Leaders are in an untenable situation. Unable to see a way out of the crises facing humanity, baffled by what seems by any ordinary measure to be so unlikely, and even less able to implement real structural change to a world-system urgently in need of reform, they blindly continue to do what they have always done. And as the present drags them by the throat into prisons of their own invention they frantically patch up the present as best they can, playing political games, all the while hoping that the emergencies facing us will fade before their incompetence is evident to everyone.

The Western Roman Empire

Clearly there are many positives to do with our current existence that I am not citing here. As Charles Dickens wrote in his novel, A Tale of Two Cities:

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of light, it was the season of darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, and we had nothing before us.

In such a richly diverse world my work is not to dwell on the present, nor to celebrate the immense joy of love and life, of friendships and of nature. My mission is to point out that which is failing the majority of humankind in the hope that we can turn things around. To that end I want to explore in greater detail those factors, identified by Edward Gibbon in his History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, and to compare these with what we are witnessing today in the world’s great superpowers.

In the late fourth century, the Western Roman Empire crumbled after a nearly 500-year run as the world’s greatest superpower. While we might blame this collapse on any number of different factors, ranging from military failures to crippling taxation, just four issues emerge as the most plausible explanations for Rome’s decline and disintegration. These factors also happen to align with almost every other documented civilisational collapse.

It should be noted that I am relatively unconcerned about the Earth. Although I cherish my home, and revel in the diversity of nature, it is simply one planet, in one universe, among many trillions of such systems. It will probably endure long after Homo sapiens have gone. Nor am I anti-American. By mostly referring to the US as the exemplar for my analysis I am simply acknowledging the status of the US in today’s world. What unfolds there will most likely become the prototype for the implosion of our current paradigm and world-system. In so many respects, the US today could be our canary in the coal mine.

1. A Decline in Morals and Values

In ancient Rome the decline in morals, especially among the wealthy upper classes, had a corrosive impact on the empire as a whole. Immoral and promiscuous sexual behaviour, including adultery, bestiality and orgies contributed to this, as did religious festivals, such as Bacchanalia, where sacrifices and lewd songs were practised to amuse the mob.

Brothels and forced prostitution thrived. Betting on gladiatorial combats and chariot races was widespread. There was also massive consumption of alcohol as the drive for personal pleasure became intense to the point of obsession.

According to the Gallup organisation, the perceived state of moral values has been in decline in the US for at least the past 20 years. Naturally not all Americans are necessarily thinking about moral values in terms of promiscuity, gambling, drunkenness or adultery. Indeed, most cite the lack of respect or tolerance for others, along with poor parenting, as among their most serious problems.

Conservatives clearly believe moral degradation is a problem though. Newt Gingrich was convinced about this when he stated a country that has been driving God out of public life should not be surprised at all the problems we have. Certainly fewer people are attending church, and out-of-wedlock births have increased, but these are global trends. Other than that it is difficult to find any evidence of a serious moral decline. The crime rate has fallen dramatically, the abortion rate has declined, divorce is the lowest it has been in decades, and teenage pregnancies are at their lowest in 40 years.

So it seems the debate over morality in America has less to do with moral outcomes and much more to do with prejudices regarding how society should look based on memories of how things used to be. While many conservatives believe America is in a moral slump, liberals might actually agree - though for very different reasons. People on the left tend to be more upset by the perceived greed of the ultra wealthy, a growing intolerance to non-white Americans, and the acceptance of torture and warfare as foreign-policy tools. 

In the end, the debate over morality more closely resembles a bifurcation in which there are two distinct monologues. But this might be a problem in itself.

2. Social Cohesion

Any society relies on common values and a shared sense of identity to guarantee unity and social stability. Patriotism, for example, acts as the glue through which both domestic and foreign policies remain tolerable for all citizens. This cohesion is now fraying and the fault lines can be traced as far back as the late seventies.

This is an important point for many observers leap to blame Donald Trump for the current divisions across the US. Newt Gingrich, it must be remembered, came to Congress as a rabid conservative Republican with the singular ambition to tear it all down and build his own and his party's power out of the rubble.

For almost half a century the US had been a relatively egalitarian, secure, middle-class democracy with frameworks in place that supported the aspirations of ordinary people. This unwritten contract governing the American dream was simple: work hard, obey the law, care for your family, and you will be rewarded, not just with a decent life, but with the prospect of a better one for your children.

For sure this promise came with a series of riders that disregarded large numbers of Americans - blacks and other minorities, women, veterans, gay couples. But the nation had sufficient tools to correct its own flaws. And it used them. So while the US had its fair share of injustices and inequities, it also had the powers of self-correction. Then the late seventies saw fundamental changes that were to rupture the surface of social unity. The flattening of average wages, deindustrialisation, the financialisation of the economy, income inequality, the growth of information technology, the flood of money into Washington, and the rise of the political right, all had their origins at this time. Almost overnight the US became more entrepreneurial and less bureaucratic, more individualistic but less communitarian, more free but less equal, more tolerant but less fair.

These same patterns continue to this day. The country has transformed from a largely Christian, white-majority nation, into an ever-more multicultural melting pot. But now the social structures embedded within the Constitution have became prey to the excesses of individuals and the greed of Wall Street.

Trump the rip-off merchant has seized on these divisions to protect his own interests. It is harder to say whether this will hasten the decline of US influence around the world before other related factors topple the empire.

3. Political Corruption

One such factor that could do just that is political corruption. It is no longer a secret that many representatives are in the pockets of major corporations. Most effort in Washington centres around short-term political gain. Meanwhile taxpayers are ripped off, the country plunges deeper into debt, and the middle class, so long a driving force of US prosperity, is crushed. No matter. There is no conscience nor principled leadership any more. There are no patrician politicians whose careers are inspired by the ideal of public service. Right across the Western world, politics has descended into fraud. No government serves the public interest today and this universal failure feeds uncertainty.

Democracy vanished from Washington years ago. In its place, constant mudslinging and ideological bullying grinds rational decision making, fairness, and compassion, as well as the longer-term security and well-being of citizens, into the dust of the Capitol. Corporate donations buy policy outcomes, while the will of the people goes unheeded. Meanwhile members of Congress and Senators alike, assume they are entitled to profit from their sinecure, later trading on a life in politics to join a rarefied class of the global super-rich.

Nor is the carnival of corruption in Washington totally about money. While Donald Trump comes across as an incoherent, uninformed oddball, and is almost certainly psychotic, the Machiavellian plot by an unethical American establishment to destroy a president chosen by the people, and not by ruling interest groups, must eventually reveal the extent of corruption in US politics and the corporate media. 

This, of course, is totally consistent with the scene in Rome centuries ago. The Praetorian Guard - the emperor’s personal bodyguards - assassinated and installed new rulers at will, at one stage even auctioning the position off to the highest bidder. This decay also extended to the Senate, which failed to temper the excesses of the emperors due to its own widespread corruption and incompetence. As the situation worsened, civic pride waned and many Roman citizens lost trust in their leadership.

Is it any wonder then, that today, increasing numbers of Americans believe the game is rigged against them? Unfortunately, once the social contract is shredded, only fools still play by the rules.

4. The Economy

Recent figures released by the US Census Bureau reveal that one in six citizens now live in poverty - the highest number ever reported by that organisation. While a large majority of Roman citizens failed to share in the incredible prosperity of Rome, the same is now true of the US.

Many of the country’s domestic problems, in education, health care and housing, for example, can be attributed to a lack of spending in these areas relative to defense. If we take into account the recent allocation to the Pentagon of $52 billion, intended to boost the Navy, add tens of thousands of soldiers and Marines, accelerate an already hugely costly nuclear weapons build-up, and build a Reaganesque Star Wars missile defense system, the combined defense budget of $824.6 billion is more than that of the next nine nations combined.

Apart from the paranoia generated by the attacks on the World Trade Centre in 2011, the root cause of overspending on defense seems to be related to the idea of exceptionalism. Like the lingering memorial of 09/11, the sense of being more virtuous, more advanced, smarter, more charitable, more liberated - and possibly more misjudged - than others, is imperiously ingrained within the American psyche. Part of this mentality is a presumption that the United States, surrounded by potential foes, must have the capability to intervene almost anywhere in the world at short notice. Perhaps even more than that, it implies a haughty belief that the US should be able to buy anybody, bully those it cannot buy, and kill those that cannot be bullied – all the while living in total impunity because it is, after all, the leader of the free world.

Although this policy has been a disaster for US security - as evidenced by the after-effects of successive interventions from Korea and Vietnam to Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya - there is still an unwavering belief that spending more money on defense ensures a safer nation, in spite of how the money is spent or how much is wasted.

There is absolutely no doubt these levels of defense spending are cutting into welfare and other domestic programs such as infrastructure. The latest round of proposed domestic cuts will not only cause widespread suffering, but will continue to undermine security as well. Over 50 years ago President Eisenhower noted the foundation of a strong and safe America should be a vibrant economy, and a healthy, well-educated, and politically engaged citizenry. Donald Trump’s domestic budget plans are destined to undermine each one of these pillars of a secure society.

Unfortunately, the entire US economy is built around war. Even to maintain current living standards and preserve its international status, the US needs a war every 4 years. Without that basic requirement economic growth begins to slow, social unrest increases, and survival becomes problematic.

This is similar to the situation that developed in Rome where constant wars, border protection, and significant overspending, lightened imperial coffers, while oppressive taxation and inflation widened the gap between the rich and poor. At its zenith, the Roman Empire stretched from the Atlantic Ocean all the way to the Euphrates. Such grandeur probably contributed to its downfall. With such a vast territory to govern, the empire struggled to marshal enough troops and resources to defend its frontiers from local rebellions and outside attacks. By the second century the Emperor Hadrian was forced to build his famous wall in Britain just to keep the enemy at bay. As more and more funds were funnelled into the military upkeep of the empire, technological advancement slowed and Rome’s civil infrastructure fell into disrepair.

Conclusions

Just ten years ago David Walker, comptroller general of the US, claimed that America was afflicted by precisely those problems that were responsible for the collapse of the Roman empire: declining moral values and political civility at home, a brash and overstretched military in foreign lands, and fiscal imprudence in Washington. Today I would have to add political corruption as well as cultural overstretch. The world is fed up with America and its bullying behaviour.

I personally believe climate change will impact the US far more than presently imagined. With so much carbon dioxide locked into the atmosphere and methane starting to erupt through the permafrost, benign environmental conditions are a thing of the past. People everywhere are also likely to become more disobedient if trust in political institutions frays much further and the economy experiences a slump.

Social cohesion is a huge problem, and although some confidence seems to be returning of late, America’s sense of identity is still fragile. In the years following the Second World War the US became an extraordinary cauldron of artistic and intellectual endeavour. That vitality has gone. Only a growing cultural malaise remains.

And then there is leadership – or rather the lack of it. Constantly surprised by complexity and unable to resolve the many issues facing the country, Washington’s politicians are far too complacent and condescending. Nowhere is this smugness more evident than in the constant barbs thrown at Russia and, more recently, China and North Korea. Such overt threats are particularly foolish given US military inferiority. That is right. Most of the world assumes the US has total military supremacy over every other country. But that is simply not the case. Russia is far superior to the US in terms of quality, training and deployment. Besides, are we really expected to believe that the only constraint keeping the US from using their overwhelming military advantage is that the leadership in Washington does not believe in the brutal, unconstrained, use of force?  

The truth is US armed forces were never the invincible military power the US propaganda machine, including Hollywood, would have us believe. And while the US undoubtedly has an advantage in the sheer numbers of weapons, advanced technologies, and reach, all that power is nullified if the enemy refuses to play the American style of war.

Washington’s excessive confidence in US invulnerability, and the brazenness that follows, is delusional. It is the reason many other nations around the world react so negatively towards the US and why it is losing friends. The recent political upheaval and divisions afflicting the US seems to be getting worse by the day and invites the question whether America, like its ancient predecessor, is headed for a fall - particularly as the internecine fighting and organisational chaos at the heart of the US presidency today seems to precisely mirror the disloyalty, distrusted intrigue that plagued the Roman emperors.

Yet it would be premature to assume the US will share Rome’s fate. America is still a fairly adolescent, if insecure, nation. Obviously a comparison between the United States and the Roman Empire is attractive for philosophers like myself. After all these two states were the most powerful empires of their time - while the US modelled many of its institutions, and much of its thinking, after Rome.

Although our attention is currently focused on political strife, significant shifts in America’s identity and power will most likely come from entirely different sources. The future world of total computerisation, life-extending medical advances, deep space exploration, and the inevitable impacts of climate breakdown, will transform the US in ways the Roman Empire never experienced. While the Romans certainly deployed advanced technologies of the day, their lives were not overturned because up to 80 per cent of the jobs were suddenly taken by robots - something likely to happen in the US over the next two decades.

How technology changes America, Russia, China and other political entities around the world will not be clear until the singularity actually hits with its full potential. Perhaps the battle being waged against globalism by President Trump and his ideologues, which has a strong anti-intellectual and anti-technology component, will prove to be a last-ditch effort to fight back against a war that is already lost. Only time will tell.