Only Tesla & China would benefit from populist anti-EV measures, Xiaomi's supercar & EU tariffs - MOBILITY BRIEF_ ??????? - July 22nd

?? Opinion: Populist measures against EVs will only benefit Tesla & China

EVs are once against being weaponised in political campaigns by conservatives/far-right parties who uses it to depict “elites” as disconnected from the “people”. But as Trump vows to “scrap the electric vehicle mandate on day one”, Musk is handing him out a $45M donation per month. Why then does Musk support him?

Ever since the COVID pandemic hit the world and his take over of Twitter (now X), Musk has engaged into a culture war, radically throwing his progressive views and ‘effective altruism’ aspirations out the window, towards a more regressive view of the world, supporting gun rights, aggressively rejecting immigration and embracing populist views (borderline conspiracy theorist) close to Trump’s own opinion, and amplifying them through his cult-like guru status on his own social network.

A communication style change rather than a deep-seated opinion shift, in the vein of Sam Bankman-Fried, as the ‘effective altruism’ philosophy has proven to be more a way to hide cynical and selfish agendas behind a curtain of willingness for common good and progress.

“If somebody comes and makes a better electric car than Tesla, and it’s so much better than ours that we can’t sell our cars and we go bankrupt, I still think that’s a good thing for the world.” Elon Musk, 60 Minutes (CBS), 2018

But Musk’s support for Trump here seems to be more of a strategy rather than an existential threat for Tesla’s main business. It is first and foremost the belief that its legacy competitors are way more exposed to a switch on the EV political agenda than Tesla is, as the Biden administration supposed “neglect” towards Tesla actually proved in the end. While GM, Ford or Stellantis have all been fed with public subsidies to help them switch towards EV, their EV sales remained underwhelming, forcing them to readjust their production and even reconsidering their EV transition roadmap. Removing legal obligations for carmakers and subsidies for final consumers would leave legacy carmakers even less enthusiastic for EVs, leaving the door wide open for Tesla to succeed. Far away from the spirit of Musk’s quote in 2018.

“Take away the subsidies. It will only help Tesla.” Elon Musk, X, July 16th 2024

Legacy carmakers are indeed too high on petrol to succeed on EVs, putting them on the back burner of their roadmap, and focusing on premium vehicles rather than affordable models, with GM even stopping production of America’s most affordable one (the Bolt) without announcing any date for its successor. And the disease is not just an US-only topic. The same observation actually prevails in Europe, as right-wing and far-right parties are pushing the EU to postpone the 2035 ICE ban, loosen the Green Deal and give more room for e-fuels, opening the door for the same kind of “wait-and-see” attitude by the local stakeholders.

But whether it’s for local politicians or Tesla: may they all be careful with the backfire. Because the main outcome of this political dithering may actually be Chinese carmakers taking the biggest piece of the pie, leaving ICE-focused local carmakers on the edge as they would be able to enter the markets more easily, bypassing the recent tariffs measures (eg. BYD new plants in Mexico and Turkey) and being on par in terms of subsidies with the locally produced ones, while benefitting from their constant pace of innovation due to their sole focus on electric vehicles. In China, EV models being cheaper than ICE models isn’t a fairy tale, and has driven the share of electrified vehicles in new cars sales to be twice the size of the one in the US and European markets. Trump isn’t even hiding it, as he already calls for Chinese manufacturers to come produce in the US.

On top of it, if Tesla seems to consider itself immune to the problem with its Supercharger, disparate EV charging infrastructures remains a strong problem for EV adoption (whether it’s a justified argument or not, it counts in the purchase decision) in both the US and Europe: public administration remains a decisive stakeholder in this domain.

So be careful what you wish for: an agenda against EVs is obviously an agenda against the people, reserving EVs for the wealthy (car owners & shareholders) while preventing the mass from switch towards a sustainable mobility for both the environment (they would be the first affected by climate change) and their own wallet (they already are the first affected).

?? This Week In The Mobility World

???Appointments (& resignations)

• Take a bow Gilles Le Borgne! Renault’s CTO is announcing his retirement effective immediately, as Alpine’s CEO Philippe Krief is appointed new CTO. A grand career from Gilles Le Borgne, who joined Renault in 2020 after 30 years in PSA Group (now Stellantis) where he pioneered the concept of modular and multi-energy vehicle platform. He will remain special advisor to Renault Group’s CEO Luca de Meo. His successor, Philippe Krief, previously engineering chief at Ferrari, will also remain CEO of Alpine in the meanwhile.
• The Information reports that Mei Cai, who led the “team that produced the next-generation battery powering GM’s EVs” has resigned from General Motors, a few months after Kurt Kelty joined the company from Tesla, to be the new VP of battery.
• Tesla is back on a hiring spree, months after its firing spree. 800 hires are expected in a wide array of domains, from AI to service jobs.

???Micromobility News

• VanMoof customers whose order haven’t been filled nor reimbursed due to the company’s bankruptcy are being offered a €1000 discount from the new ownership structure to acquire VanMoof’s latest bike. Sweet, but fool me once…
• Infinite Machine opened the orders for the 2nd batch of 250 units of its P1 smart and electric moped featuring a radical design (perfect blend between a Polestar and a Cybertruck) and a range of ADAS. It’s $10k for the moped, its charger, its “high-performance [removable] battery”, and its delivery, planned for next spring.

???Factories/Manufacturing Updates

• Valeo is looking to sell two French factories (L'Isle-d'Abeau and La Suze) and an R&D center (La Verrière) due to a struggling transition to EV and a decline in European car production, potentially impacting 1k jobs.
• MG is considering building its first European EV factory in Galicia, Spain, to avoid tariffs on Chinese imports and better serve the European market. The decision is expected by September 2024 with a target production start in late 2027, despite considering locations with lower labor costs.

???Tech Updates

• Also battling with software issues, Volvo is forced to delay the release of many software features of its new EX90. Automotive News has listed those features, who will be delivered later through an OTA update: “the EX90's lidar system; two advanced driver assistance (ADAS) programs that improve safety at intersections; the SUV's ability to access an iPhone via Siri voice commands; the ability to transfer excess energy from the vehicle to the home; and the removal of a requirement to run the car's core system in the background even when parked, which drains the battery by 3 percent every 24 hours.”. But it’s still worrisome to see no ETA for this software update, especially when software issues have also been the cause for the 2 years release delay of the same model.
• Volkswagen engineers are now working at Xpeng's headquarters in Guangzhou, China, to co-develop EVs. This deep partnership, following a $700M investment by Volkswagen for a 4.99% stake in Xpeng, goes beyond financial ties. They're collaborating on technology and platforms to build competitive EVs for the Chinese market, specifically targeting the mid-size car segment with two Volkswagen-branded models based on Xpeng's G9 platform. This partnership reflects a broader trend of global collaboration in the EV industry. Similar ones include Leapmotor's €1.5B investment from Stellantis for a 20% stake, creating Leapmotor International to launch European sales in September. Additionally, CHERY teamed up with JLR to build EVs using Chery's platform and the licensed Freelander brand.

?? EV Updates

• The European Commission is considering a tariff break for Volkswagen and BMW producing EVs in China, compared to some Chinese competitors. This aims to avoid penalizing European manufacturers reliant on China-made EVs. Currently, tariffs on these vehicles vary, with SAIC facing the highest at 47.6%, followed by Geely (29.9%) and BYD (27.4%). All other manufacturers fall under the 47.6% bracket. The proposal involves classifying BMW and Volkswagen as "cooperative enterprises," reducing their tariff rate to 30.8%. This applies to the BMW electric Mini and Volkswagen Cupra Tavascan, initially hit with higher tariffs due to an oversight. This decision could significantly impact the competitiveness of EV manufacturers in Europe but it's still unclear if other European brands like Dacia (Spring model) or Tesla (Model 3 produced in China) will receive similar treatment.

• Stellantis and Mercedes-Benz are reportedly eager to follow Rio Tinto’s $2.5B lithium mining project in Serbia, by establishing locally lithium processing and battery manufacturing. Would the Government allow Rio Tinto to resume its project (it was previously blocked following massive demonstrations), the mine would open in 2028.
• In line with current shift of European carmakers towards LFP batteries, British start-up Integrals Power is opening its first LFP-cathode powder factory in Milton Keynes, with plans to scale up by 50x its production output in the next years.
• A new carmaker confirming it is slowing down its EV planning to introduce more hybrids in its range: Ford Europe, who recently launched its new Capri, said its all-electric plans for 2030 were “too ambitious”. “I think customers have voted, and they told us that was too ambitious” said Ford’s Model E COO Marin Gjaja, as reported by Autocar, a week after launching another SUV starting above €45k. Was it really a vote, or did they stuffed the ballot box?
• To add to the current trend of legacy carmakers chickening out of their EV bold plans, GM refused to confirm its previously established goal of 1M EV production output by 2025, blaming again the customer after having discontinued the cheapest EV model on the American market.
• Electrek reports an interesting patent from Tesla, who would solve the degradation of cheap and environment friendly manganese batteries.
• German eVTOL maker Lilium struck a major deal with Saudia for up to 100 electric flying taxis, marking a big step for the industry. These egg-shaped jets aim to replace noisy helicopters for short trips, with the Middle East emerging as a hotbed for eVTOL innovation.

?? EV Charging Infrastructure Updates

• TotalEnergies joins forces with Scottish energy company SSE to create Source, a new charging operator for UK and Ireland, with ambitious plans for “3000 high power charge points (150+kW) grouped in 300 EV hubs targeting 20% market share” within the next 5 years.
• New milestone for NIO in Europe, with the launch of its 50th European battery swap station in Oslo last Tuesday, in the same country where NIO opened its first one. Its battery swap network is now up and running in 5 countries (Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Germany and Netherlands).

???New Car Reveals

• Calling all China tech fans and car enthusiasts! The Xiaomi SU7 is coming to Paris for the CHUANMEN exhibition from July 23rd to 26th and July 29th to 30th. Entry is free, but be aware: this isn't a sign that the SU7 is launching in Europe yet.
• Talking about Xiaomi, have you seen the SU7 Ultra prototype? This high-performance machine features a powerful new engine exceeding 1,500 horsepower, launching the car from 0 to 100 km/h in a mere 1.97 seconds and reaching over 350 km/h. Xiaomi isn't just about raw power; they're testing the prototype at the iconic Nürburgring to compete with established automakers. While a 2025 production model is planned with a more affordable body, the SU7 Ultra Prototype's design evokes a sense of "déjà vu." Despite this, the car's battery promises high discharge power and impressive regenerative braking capabilities, with a projected charging rate of 520 kW. Xiaomi's foray into the high-performance electric car market is a bold move!

• Honda is teasing its future SUV for North America, the 2026 Honda Passport. The new model is expected for early 2025.

?? Marketing & Retail Updates

• Hello beautiful! Rivian restored an abandoned gas station near the Yosemite National Park in California, to make its first “Charging Outpost”, a new refreshing concept of charging station featuring a unique design blending with the local architecture. 24h access to charging, a lounge area to rest, coffee, water refill, a snack bar, educational games and Rivian merchandise. Is willing to visit this Rivian station a good reason to travel to the Yosemite National Park?

???Investment/Financial/Legal Updates

• Renault Group is racing ahead with a 1.9% sales increase in the first half of the year, selling 1,154,700 vehicles. In Europe, sales surged 6.7%, cementing Renault's third-place finish. The Renault brand saw an 8.2% boost, with standout growth in Spain, Italy, and the UK. Their E-Tech hybrids sped up sales by 45%, and Dacia’s sales climbed 4%. Alpine broke records with a 47.7% rise in registrations. Globally, Renault is accelerating in Turkey, Brazil, and Morocco, launching new models and ambitious plans. Renaulution has its benefits!

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