Are Only 25% of US Lawyers Now Litigators?

Is the legal profession shifting away from litigation, perhaps dramatically? Do we need to rethink legal education in light of changing practice patterns? Are only 25% of US lawyers now litigators? Is that percentage decreasing and at what rate? How can we find out?

I heard a while back that only a relatively small percentage of US lawyers are now lawyers. Since I rarely run into anyone who is a litigator anymore, I was inclined to believe that because that is what we do these days. “I don’t know anyone who likes X, therefore no one likes X” seems to be the argument I hear most commonly lately.

It seems like a simple question: “What percentage of US lawyers are litigators?”

Three recent experiences got me thinking further about this topic. I spoke to a group of about 150 Michigan lawyers and almost everyone in the room was a litigator and, yes, someone did assert that trial lawyers are the highest form of lawyers, as always happens in such a group. The second was a statistic Bridget Mary McCormack , CEO of the American Arbitration Association, used in her keynote at the recent SubTech conference that only 4% of cases that are filed now go to trial. The third was that I simply could not find again anything that confirmed my memory of seeing something that referred to a “relatively small percentage.”

For better or worse, that made me want to find out what the actual composition of the US legal profession might be. It seems like a simple question: “What percentage of US lawyers are litigators?”

This question, however, led me down a rabbit hole of research, highlighting both the scarcity of reliable data in our field and the potential of new technologies to fill these information gaps.

I have returned to share my findings with you.

My quest for answers began with a quick survey of various sources, including AI language models and traditional search results, all using the basic question I had. Here's what I found at the time I tried this (your results are likely to vary, of course):

• ChatGPT 4.0: 34%
• Top Google result: 27%
• Claude 3.5: 25-30% (citing “ABA stats”)
• My own calculation from other survey results: 19%
• Bing CoPilot: 0.52% (stated with surprising confidence)

I did a little more math. Lawyers who are afraid of math, bear with me a second. This should be painless.

Using the Olympic judging approach, I discarded the high and low numbers and averaged the remaining numbers.

I arrived at, drum roll please, an average in the 24-25% range. I’ve decided to keep it simple and round to 25%.

There you have it, the percentage of US lawyers who are litigators can be set at 25%. While I'll admit my confidence in this figure is limited, it provides a starting point for discussion. #confirmationbias, anyone? For the curious, transactional lawyers seem to outnumber litigators significantly.

This exercise raised several important questions, chief among them: Does this percentage suggest we need to revisit our approach to legal education, bar exam priorities, and our overall understanding of law practice?

The potential implications are significant. If only a quarter of lawyers are engaged in litigation, are we adequately preparing law students for the diverse realities of modern legal practice? Are we over-emphasizing courtroom and litigation skills at the expense of other crucial areas like negotiation, contract drafting, regulatory and policy work, or alternative dispute resolution?

Do we need to reevaluate our focus in legal education, ethics training, bar exams, and our general conception of the legal system?

Yes, what about that damn bar exam?

What's particularly striking – and somewhat ironic – is the difficulty in finding accurate, comprehensive data on the legal profession. For a field that prides itself on evidence-based decision-making, we seem to be operating with a surprising lack of solid numbers. This data scarcity extends beyond litigation percentages to various aspects of legal practice areas.

My experiment in using AI language models to gather this information was partly born out of necessity and partly out of curiosity. The hypothesis was that current LLMs might provide a useful averaging effect, potentially smoothing out definitional issues that lawyers often grapple with. That's why I used the very simple question, "What percentage of US lawyers are litigators?" While not a replacement for rigorous statistical analysis, this approach could offer a "good enough" starting point for discussions and further research. Thinking about this experiment will also give you some great insights into both how AI and humans work these days.

As we move forward, it's clear that we need more robust data collection and analysis within the legal profession. Even more important, despite the suggestions of some, that analysis should not be done by me.

Without accurate information, how can we make informed decisions about the future of legal education, professional development, and the allocation of resources within the justice system?

Moreover, the potential disconnect between legal education and actual practice raises ethical considerations. Are we adequately preparing new lawyers for the realities they'll face? Are we fostering the right skills and mindsets for success in today's legal landscape?

While my "25% litigator" rule of thumb might be far from definitive, it serves as a catalyst for important conversations. What are your thoughts? Do you have access to more accurate figures on practice areas? How do you think we can improve data collection and analysis in the legal field? Let's continue this crucial conversation and work towards a more informed, adaptable legal profession and start to question our assumptions and consider how we might evolve legal education and professional standards to better serve both lawyers and their clients in the 21st century.

My final verdict: the rule of thumb number that you will keep hearing me use until someone makes me stop because they have something more accurate than 25%, even though I suspect that the true percentage might be lower and diminishing over time. I'll let others track that answer down.

#litigators #25percent #uslawyers #lawpractice #legaleducation #data #statistics