Online shopping will grow in 2022, says Adobe

Adobe has just released its annual online shopping forecast for the 2022 holiday season, covering the period from 1 November through 31 December. And the news is great: the company forecasts a 2.5% growth in online spending year-over-year in the US.

This increase means American shoppers will spend a whopping $209.7 billion online in just two months. Adobe's research takes into account the period starting in November when historically, families start their holiday shopping. However, something has changed this year and may alter this picture slightly. Amazon launched its second Prime Day of 2022 on 11 October, possibly already kicking off this year's shopping season.

Cyber Monday, on 28 November, will likely remain the biggest shopping day, with Adobe foreseeing a record $11.2 billion in spending (5.1% increase YoY). The question is if the traditional?Amazon?sale will impact Cyber Week, the most lucrative period for online shopping. With heavily discounted items, it is possible the sale may entice customers to start ticking off their end-of-the-year list.

“The shape of the holiday season will look different this year, with early discounting in October pulling up spend that would have occurred around Cyber Week,” said Patrick Brown, vice president of growth marketing and insights at Adobe. “Even though we expect to see single-digit growth online this season, it is notable that consumers have already spent over $590 billion online this year at 8.9% growth, highlighting the resiliency of e-commerce demand.”?($590 billion from Jan.?to Aug.?2022)

People are apprehensive about the economy. In the UK, for instance,?inflation hit double digits?for the first time since 1982. Understandably, people could be more cautious about their spending. However, the most important thing about these numbers is that they bring a positive perspective to the e-commerce future amid a global cost of living crisis.

For this reason, Adobe points out that significant discounts are expected, hitting a record high of 32% for some items, like computers. Although price reductions will impact margins and spending, they will also attract enough customers to maintain growth.