One of the most admired figures in Pakistan, former Prime Minister Imran Khan.

Imran Khan was elected Prime Minister of Pakistan in 2018, promising to reform the government and improve the lives of ordinary citizens. He campaigned on an anti-corruption platform and his charismatic persona appealed to many voters looking for change.

However, Khan's tenure was cut short in April 2022 when he was ousted in a parliamentary vote of no confidence. Khan had lost support due to unfulfilled promises, economic struggles, and controversies surrounding his government.

After being removed from power, Khan alleged his ousting was the result of a conspiracy by opposition parties and foreign governments. He vowed to continue his political fight through street protests and called for early elections.

The Ongoing Cases

Khan now faces multiple legal cases related to alleged corruption during his time as Prime Minister. The outcomes of these cases, along with the political turbulence in Pakistan, have significant implications for Khan's future and the country as a whole.

Foreign Funding Case

This case alleges Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party received illegal foreign funding. The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) is investigating, with potential consequences ranging from disqualification to criminal charges.

Toshakhana Gifts Case

Khan is accused of receiving gifts from foreign dignitaries and selling them below market value, violating rules. The case is ongoing in an accountability court.

Land Cruiser Import Case

Khan is accused of approving the illegal import of a duty-free Land Cruiser gifted by the UAE. The case is ongoing in an Islamabad court.

Anti-Terrorism Act Case

Khan faces charges for allegedly threatening a judge and police officers during a public rally. The case is ongoing in an Islamabad court.

The Recent Verdicts

Khan has faced recent verdicts in two high-profile legal cases:

Cypher Case

On January 30, 2024, Khan was sentenced to 10 years in prison for sharing classified diplomatic information. This case, known as the Cypher case, relates to a memo Khan revealed in March 2022 that he claimed showed evidence of a foreign conspiracy to oust him from power.

The memo in question was an alleged secret diplomatic cable from Pakistan's ambassador to the United States describing interactions with US officials. The government accused Khan of unlawfully disclosing records of a National Security Council meeting where the memo was discussed, violating the Official Secrets Act.

After a speedy trial, Khan was convicted by an Islamabad district and sessions court judge and sentenced to 10 years imprisonment along with a fine. Khan immediately filed an appeal against the verdict. His lawyers argued the trial was conducted in haste and he was denied the right to a fair trial.

Election Commission Case

On February 2, 2024, Pakistan’s Election Commission disqualified Khan from holding public office for five years. This related to allegations Khan made false financial disclosures regarding gifts and assets as a lawmaker that he failed to declare.

The case centered around Khan’s failure to properly declare the proceeds from selling gifts received during his tenure as prime minister. These included expensive watches, bracelets, and other luxury items.

The Election Commission ruled that Khan committed corrupt practices by providing false statements and incorrect details in his nomination papers for the 2018 elections. This disqualified him under Pakistani election laws.

Khan swiftly challenged the disqualification in the Islamabad High Court, terming it illegal and vowing to fight it with full force. For now, the disqualification bars him from contesting the upcoming February 8th elections.

Election Commission Case

On February 2, 2024, Pakistan's Election Commission disqualified Khan from holding public office for five years. This related to allegations Khan made false financial disclosures regarding gifts and assets as a lawmaker that he failed to declare.?

The case centered around Khan's failure to properly declare the proceeds from selling gifts received during his tenure as prime minister. These included expensive watches, bracelets, and other luxury items.?

The Election Commission ruled that Khan committed corrupt practices by providing false statements and incorrect details in his nomination papers for the 2018 elections. This disqualified him under Pakistani election laws.

Khan swiftly challenged the disqualification in the Islamabad High Court, terming it illegal and vowing to fight it with full force. For now, the disqualification bars him from contesting the upcoming February 8th elections.

Impact on February 8th Elections

Khan's disqualification throws a curveball into the upcoming February 8th elections. However, he remains a popular figure, and his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party is still contesting the polls. The legal challenges surrounding Khan could influence voter sentiment in the following ways:

• Khan's absence from campaigning due to imprisonment may hinder PTI's ability to mobilize supporters. However, it could also galvanize sympathy votes from Khan's loyal base.
• Questions remain whether PTI can run an effective campaign without their charismatic leader Khan at the forefront. This presents an organizational challenge for the party.
• The narrative of Khan being a political victim targeted by the current government may resonate with many voters. This could translate into ballot-box support for PTI candidates.
• However, the disqualification specifically bars Khan from holding public office, raising uncertainty if he can officially remain PTI Chairman during the elections. This could negatively impact PTI's electoral prospects.
• Voter turnout amongst PTI supporters may be affected depending on the developments in Khan's legal cases around election time. Enthusiasm could be dampened if convictions seem imminent.

Overall, the unique situation with Khan's multiple legal troubles adds an element of unpredictability to the highly anticipated February 8th elections. The outcome remains difficult to forecast definitively. PTI appears likely to maintain significant support, but Khan's absence combined with disqualification impacts create uncertainty around PTI's electoral chances. The coming weeks will reveal how these unprecedented circumstances ultimately influence the Pakistani electorate.

Popularity Before Arrest?

High Point: Khan enjoyed immense popularity before his ousting in April 2022. His narrative of being an outsider fighting corruption resonated with many Pakistanis yearning for change. He enjoyed significant support, particularly among the youth and middle class.??

Challenges: However, his approval ratings had been declining due to unfulfilled promises, economic woes, and controversies surrounding his government.

Popularity After Arrest

Surge in Support: Khan's arrest in May 2023 triggered massive protests and outrage, reigniting his support base. His supporters perceived it as a politically motivated attack, solidifying their loyalty. Large crowds gathered in major cities across Pakistan to protest his imprisonment, chanting slogans of support and calling for his release. This outpouring indicated that his popularity had spiked in the aftermath of his arrest as many supporters rallied to his defense.??

Polarization: The arrest deepened the political divide in Pakistan. While it invigorated his core supporters, it further alienated his critics who viewed it as justified due to ongoing legal cases. The country became sharply polarized between pro-Khan and anti-Khan camps.

Recent Decline: The initial surge of support after the arrest has tapered off in recent weeks and months. Recent legal verdicts, particularly Khan's disqualification from holding public office in February 2024, have dampened some of the enthusiasm amongst his supporters. While he retains a loyal following, the crowds at recent protests have been smaller and more subdued. This suggests his popularity may have peaked after the arrest and has declined somewhat as his legal troubles continue to mount. However, polls continue to show he enjoys significant backing, especially among the youth.

Uncertain Future

Khan's disqualification from holding public office raises questions about the future of his political career and popularity.?

Impact of Disqualification

The disqualification prevents Khan from running in the upcoming February 8th elections or holding a parliamentary seat. This raises uncertainty about his party PTI's ability to mobilize voters without Khan at the forefront leading the election campaign. Khan's absence could dampen enthusiasm among some supporters.

However, Khan's disqualification could also galvanize his support base by cementing his image as a political martyr unfairly targeted by the establishment. His supporters may rally around him even more fiercely without him on the ballot. So the disqualification contains risks but also opportunities for mobilizing his base against the government.

Continued Uncertainty?

It remains difficult to definitively predict the future of Khan's popularity. The disqualification was a major blow, but developments in his ongoing legal cases, the outcome of the February 8th elections, and his ability to spin political narratives will significantly impact public perception.?

Khan retains a dedicated core support base, but expanding beyond that requires overcoming negative fallout from the disqualification. Much depends on PTI's electoral performance without him directly in the race. Overall, the future is uncertain but hinges greatly on the coming elections and legal cases.

Other Factors Influencing Khan's Popularity

Media Portrayal

The way Imran Khan is portrayed in the Pakistani news media plays a significant role in shaping public perception and opinion of him. Khan has accused much of the mainstream media of being biased against him and his party. His supporters share this sentiment and believe Khan is unfairly criticized while his achievements are downplayed or ignored. On the other hand, Khan's critics in the media contend that he is given too much favorable coverage by channels that back him. How Khan is represented across various media outlets - whether positively or negatively - influences how different segments of the population view him.

Economic Situation?

Pakistan's struggling economy is a crucial contextual factor impacting Khan's popularity. Voters facing high inflation, unemployment, poverty, and load shedding of electricity are more likely to vote against the incumbent parties. If Khan and his party can convince people that the current economic crisis is not their fault, it may shore up his popularity. However, if voters blame Khan's previous policies for their economic woes, it could further damage his political standing. The PTI's plan for dealing with Pakistan's economic challenges will be a decisive issue influencing Khan's support.

Conclusion

The political journey of Imran Khan has been one of hard-fought victories, surprising reversals, and ultimately, unresolved dilemmas. Amid the flux of public sentiment and legal entanglements, Khan remains one of Pakistan's most influential and polarizing figures.

His anti-corruption platform initially resonated strongly with many Pakistanis, leading to his election victory. However, challenges during his tenure as Prime Minister caused his support to decline. His arrest sparked outrage among his loyal base, who see him as a political martyr, while simultaneously deepening resentment from critics.?

The recent legal verdicts, particularly his disqualification from holding office, add another layer of uncertainty. It remains to be seen whether this will dampen his support or galvanize it further. Much depends on the outcome of the February 8th elections and his ongoing legal battles. His positioning as an outsider taking on the establishment continues to fuel his popularity among some segments. However, delivering results is key for converting popular sentiment into electoral success.??

Imran Khan's future political trajectory hangs in the balance. While he retains a devoted following, his standing has become increasingly polarized. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether he can regain momentum or will slide further from his peak of power. Regardless of the outcome, Khan's fluctuating fortunes demonstrate the pendulum swings of popularity in Pakistan's turbulent political landscape.