No One Cares About The Climate Consensus. Geopolitics, Cake & Secrets. What Politicians Think of Spies. Economics Lessons From Rock. Plus more! #221

Grüezi!?I’m Adrian Monck – welcome!

1??? Climate Change: 97% of Scientists Agree. No One Cares.

What doesn’t work when you’re warning about global warming.

Forgive the local news. This is a few hours drive from where I live.

So how do we make people want to do something?

One of the most consistent talking points on global warming is the scientific consensus. Scientists overwhelmingly believe climate change is happening.

But a study across 27 countries has shown that telling people this seemingly iron-clad fact barely moves the needle on public opinion and fails to drive action.

Researchers found:

• Telling people “97% of scientists agree on human-caused climate change” only slightly increased belief in climate change and worry about its impacts.
• The messaging had no direct effect on support for climate action.
• Even adding information about scientists viewing climate change as a crisis didn’t improve results.

What does this mean? Well, we need to rethink our approach to climate communication. Scientific consensus is important, but it’s clearly not enough to achieve meaningful change.

Moving forward:

• Show how climate affects people’s lives and neighbourhoods
• Use community values and group identity to encourage action

We are long overdue a paradigm shift in how we communicate climate change. We need strategies that don’t just inform but inspire and mobilise.

What are your thoughts on effective climate communication?

??The Alps have a new kind of tourism – see glaciers before they go forever.

2???Geopolitical Chess: Lessons from US-China Diplomacy

Sometimes it takes chocolate cake and quiet conversation.

The FT has a deep dive on the ‘secret’ diplomatic channel between the US and China. These kinds of pieces always come with a warning. This channel is so ‘secret’ it is now in a global newspaper.

And the sources? Usually loose-lipped diplomats looking to reboot their reputations. In this case – National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan.

But the story offers a rare glimpse into current international relations. My takeaways?

1. Power of Quiet: The “backchannel” –?in Vienna’s Hotel Sacher, famous for chocolate cake – allowed for frank discussions away from the public eye. It demonstrates –?yet again – the value of creating space for genuine dialogue out of the spotlight in tense relationships.
2. Dangers of Superficial Analysis: US officials labelling Chinese officials as “paranoid” risks crass over-simplification. In geopolitics, as in chess, it’s worth assuming your opponent might be making moves for a position later in the game.
3. Balancing Competition and Cooperation: The US attempt to frame the relationship as “competition that doesn’t preclude cooperation” is a reminder that the world looks different depending where you stand. Your rules-based order is someone else’s rigged deck.
4. Insistence on Persistence: Both sides saw value in sticking with this –?Sullivan’s in China this week. In complex relationships, consistent dialogue – even when difficult – beats the alternatives.
5. The Calculation Behind Public Statements: ‘Insider’ accounts typically have multiple audiences – political bosses, the public, the other negotiating party and then the rest of us.

Journalism – of course – loves people over policy.

If you were a very cynical person – like one or two FT readers – you might interpret such ‘deep dive’ stories like this:

Don’t fall prey to cynicism!

??Want to go deeper? Read ‘How the US’s hardening China?policy is seen in Beijing.’

3?? Intelligence Services And Over-Rationalising Advice

Putting The Personal Back Into Geopolitics

To put that FT piece in a different perspective, read Ben Wallace, a junior Army officer turned Conservative politician who spent four years as Britain’s defence minister.

His editorial makes the case for the importance of political judgment in geopolitics.

• Misread Motives: The UK’s security establishment failed to grasp Putin’s real motives – driven by revenge, legacy, and a romanticised version of Russian history, rather than by logic or the desire to modernise Russia.
• Failure to Anticipate Aggression: Burned by the Iraq War, the intelligence services sanitised and depersonalised their briefings. This often removed the “human factor” and led to their failure to anticipate Russian aggression.
• Overlooking the Obvious: Key public statements made by Putin, clearly signalling his intentions, were missed or dismissed by “Russia experts.”
• Need for Political Insight: Politicians need to rely not just on intelligence but also on their own judgment and ability to understand the motives and psychology of their adversaries.

When you read between the lines, what Wallace tells us is that democratic oversight offers an alternative way for administrative grievances to get aired.

Frustrated by cautious higher ups? Find a way to get your message to a minister. Wallace almost admits it:

“Often the middle ranking intelligence officer who has lived and breathed the enemy for 20 years is kept so far in the background that ministers don’t get the instinct or judgment they really need.”

Wallace ends by pointing out that Britain is a Russian target. It’s an easier proxy for the US – weaker economically and diplomatically, its politics and social media porous and corruptible.

Will his warning be taken seriously now he’s out of office?

??Ironically, Britain’s media also provides an outlet for alternative views.

4?? The Geopolitics of Germanium and Gallium

Tom Lehrer sang about them. Now they’re starring in global trade wars.

The semiconductor industry is the arena where geopolitical tensions go to slog it out.

Two obscure materials – germanium and gallium – are the unlikely stars of this edition of global tech confrontation.

Why these materials matter:

• Germanium: Essential for fibre-optic systems, infrared optics, and solar cells.
• Gallium: Crucial for LEDs, 5G networks, and radar systems.
• Both? Vital in producing advanced semiconductors.

The context.

• US-China tech rivalry: Ongoing tensions have led to restrictions on advanced chip sales to China.
• China’s retaliation: China has curbed exports of both. It controls 98% of global gallium production and produces 60% of the world’s germanium.

The dilemma?

Western nations and companies are now scrambling to secure supplies and develop alternatives, but this comes with significant risks and costs:

1. Alternative Materials: The US DoD is funding research into substitutes, but what if these expensive efforts become unnecessary?
2. E-Waste Recovery: Companies are investing in recycling technologies, but can these compete if traditional supply routes reopen?
3. Supply Chain Diversification: Many firms are re-shoring or diversifying suppliers at great expense.

Investing heavily in alternatives risks wasting resources if China lifts restrictions. Inaction could leave companies vulnerable to future supply disruptions.

This is how geopolitical competition ends up making everyone worse off.

??Not everyone thinks we should worry about export bans.

5?? A Must-Read for the Future of Business!

Pick up a copy of the “The New Nature of Business”

My friend and former colleague Peter Vanham has teamed up with André Hoffmann Hoffmann to produce a manifesto for a more considered capitalism: The New Nature of Business: The Path to Prosperity and Sustainability.

This book is for anyone invested in the future of business.

Andre has spent a lifetime in boardrooms. Outside, he has an impressive track record as an environmentalist. His insights on how to unite those two strands together combine with Peter’s talents as a business thinker who has travelled the world seeking out stories of positive change.

In a world where balancing profit and sustainability is more crucial than ever, the pair provide a compelling blueprint for how companies can thrive by embracing a new, more holistic approach.

They challenge the outdated notion that business success must come at the expense of our environment and society. Instead, they offer a model for “sustainable prosperity,” illustrated by case studies from industry leaders like Roche, IKEA, and Schneider Electric.

The book doesn’t just theorise—it provides actionable strategies for aligning business practices with the needs of society and the planet. Highly recommended!

??Here’s where you can get yourself a copy.

6?? Sustainability Could Give Africa’s Its Next 3 Million Jobs

Step forward renewables…

??You can read the full report here.

7?? Economic Lessons From Rock Stars

Without specialisation, there’s no rock n’ roll.

As Oasis re-unite, Liam Gallagher remains one of Britain’s national treasures:

• How’s your relationship with Paul McCartney since you called him “too nice”?
• “I’ve met him a few times – he’s been absolutely a dream. The last time was at the Royal Albert Hall...
• He goes, ‘Why are you always in a rush? Sit down, sit down.’
• I sit down and he goes, ‘Do you like margaritas?’
• I said, ‘Yeah, but I had something before I come out, I don’t eat at this time of night.’
• He said, ‘They’re f**kin’ drinks...’
• I thought he was offering me a pizza.

??The Oasis reunion may also be profitable enough for Liam to stop making his own tea.

If you enjoy this newsletter – please recommend it!

Best

Adrian