How will the new State of Endemic look like?
Khalizan Halid
Codegen Technologies Sdn Bhd 执行董事（所有表达的观点完全是我的，除了我复制的）。 谈论 #covid 19，#金融科技，#马来西亚，#经济学和战略思维
How will the new State of Endemic look like?
In the CILT International talk about supply chains 3 months ago , I called for international industry and national leaders to develop and agree on a set of possible scenarios to define the global journey from a pandemic to an endemic state of COVID.
The purpose of having such commonly agreed possible scenarios (eg enumerated and documented Scenario 1.1a, Scenario 1.1b, etc) is to orchestrate preparations and responses globally against this virus that knows no borders. Industry participants representing various supply chains, logistics, medical, legal, finance, data should have continual dialogues that refine our path through these uncharted waters.
That was before Omicron.
---
The facts:
1. South Africa had found that 2 doses of Pfizer - arguably amongst the most effective of the vaccines - is only 23% effective against Omicron. That is, in other words, 77% IN-effective.
2. In a small study involving 40 patients, Israel found that, after 5-6 months post-vaccine, the vaccine is found to be ineffective against Omicron.
3. Israel also found that booster shots increase immunity, but still lower than the effectiveness against previous strains, including the Delta. In comparison, after having the booster dose, a patient's immunity is 4 times less effective against Omicron compared to Delta.
4. It is assumed, however, that the infections will be less severe than the other variants.
5. In response, Israel's Prime Minister has warned the nation of a possible lockdown if the Omicron is not curbed.
Different nations, different responses. Different preparations, different readiness. Different acceptance of possible realities
The virus knows no borders. Supply chains span across borders..
---
The Big Question:
We shall assume that Omicron infections will be less lethal than previous strains.
Q1. Great number of infections (Omicron is 5 times more contagious than the Delta and 300 times more contagious than the Beta) will produce new variants, some of which may combine the Omicron's higher infectability and Delta's higher lethality.
领英推荐
Q2. What do we do?
It will be good if there is continuous discussions about this, involving people from various professions and industries, considering the global, national, diplomatic, legal, finance, logistics impact on supply chains and economies.
---
Considerations:?
1. Many nations will not be able to survive any more lockdowns. But what if the infection rates rise again? While the serious cases may be small in percentage, with a large number of infections, the serious cases will still be large in absolute numbers. Are hospital facilities being prepared for the increase while lockdowns are not expected to be imposed?
2. Without lockdowns, infections will be high. Shall the sick be hospitalised and at what stage? Shall normal wards be converted into ICUs if the decision is to cater only for those who are sick at the advanced stages?
3. It may be too heavy a burden for us to even think about right now, but postponing considerations of breeding a more lethal variant with high infectivity may result in countries, especially those less endowed with strong economies, playing a forced hand before the end of 2022 (given the past track record of emerging variants). While closing economies may not be an option for many, what should they do to prepare for that future variant? Hasten the rate digitalization with uncommon urgency?
Omicron's low lethality is a breath of reprieve, which may be temporary. Its high infectivity is a clear warning of the Sword Of Damocles hanging over our heads.
This breath of reprieve allows mankind and nations to make preparations. The duration of reprieve is anybody's guess, but everybody can make a good guess already
It should not be frittered away to waste..
---
Conclusion:
How will the new State of Endemic look like?
Can we develop scenarios now, or cross the river when we reach the bridge?
?
?
?