Olympic Glory and the factors behind it – Decoding Rise and Falls of Sporting Nations

Genesis

?1.??The Olympics has not only been an ultimate test of the sporting prowess of a person, but has also defined national pride and culture since 1896. The growth of a nation can be directly associated with its medal tally in Olympics. The pain and ecstasy of a player on the sporting field of the Olympics is felt by each citizen of a nation and gives them the resolve and motivation to work for the glory of the nation.

2.????????Despite the above, why do you think a small country like San Marino with a population of just 30000 has three Olympic medals whereas India, a nation of 1.25 billion people has to remain content with just seven (which incidentally is the highest in its 100 years) medals? Is it the physical strength of the people, training infrastructure of a country or the culture of the populace as a whole? Why is China, which has similar geographical location and physical population characteristics, almost number one in medals tally?? Is the amount of money and effort spent on sports directly proportional to the medals won in Olympics? What are the ingredients which make a ‘sporting nation’?

?3.??This paper aims to analyse the above aspects based on data and analysis since the inception of Olympics. It also formulated a model which takes into various aspects which go into development of an athlete which has both tangible and intangible factors. The model is based on regression and analytics and forecasts the medal tally of India in the next few Olympics. Going by the current trends predicted by this model, India will be able to enhance its medal tally to 17 in the 2032 Brisbane Olympics.

?Factors affecting Sporting Prowess of a nation

?4.??A country doesn’t win medals by fluke or just on sheer capabilities of a player. It takes years of effort to build an athlete and prepare him for the Olympics. However, there are certain factors which influence a nation’s medal tally in Olympics which include organized support by its public and private sector and also private efforts by its individuals. These factors can be both tangible and intangible and can be categorised as under:-

?Tangible Factors

??????I.????????Total Population

?????II.????????Population characteristics – built, height, weight

???III.????????Gross GDP

???IV.????????Per Capita Income

????V.????????Per capita expenditure on sports

???VI.????????Per capita time on physical activity

??VII.????????Per capita time spent on organized sports

?VIII.????????Institutional Support

?IX.????????Private sector involvement

Intangible Factors

??????I.????????National Sporting Culture

????II.????????Willingness to win at international stage

?Economic Power

?5.??The last century has proved that a country’s sporting performance, barring certain exceptions over the long run, is directly proportional to its economic prowess. Affluence helps to divert a portion of the wealth towards leisure activities which also includes sports. A nation struggling to feed its poor can hardly afford to spend too much money on sporting activities. The same is applicable to both private industry and individuals. History has been testimony to this effect. The long-term performance of major sporting nations has been consistent with their rise in economies and national incomes.

Population Characteristics

?6.??Although the physical build of a person does make a difference to his/her performance in sports, however we can never characterize nations based on this criterion only. There are wide variations in size and build of persons within a nation. USA does have citizens who are 5 feet tall and India also has men who are above 7 feet. In the Olympics, you just need a handful of players to win medals. Even if we assume that 1% of Indian men are above 6 feet height, that should be enough to get enough talent for any sporting event which has direct correlation with height. Same is the case with other physical characteristics. There will never be a dearth of talent in a nation like India. Only problem is recognizing and nurturing it.

?7.??Other than just physical build, basic intelligence also makes a difference in sports like shooting, archery, chess etc. There are so many events in the Olympic games that any nation can choose a few niche disciplines for itself and focus its major efforts towards them. India has done well by focusing its efforts in wrestling, archery and shooting and barring Tokyo Olympics, Indian players have been doing well in these disciplines. China is a shining example of this policy wherein they focused more on gymnastics and have been winning the majority of medals in it.

National Culture

8.?The amount of effort a nation puts in sports is directly proportional to the culture which is ingrained in its population. Some nations have a very healthy culture in which most office goers either walk or cycle to the office not just to preserve the environment, but also to remain physically fit. A recent survey about the habits of people brought out that almost 60% of people in developed nations did at least one physical exercise per day to stay healthy. The same number was reduced to 20-25% for developing nations. One can always see people running on streets of upmarket New York even in the middle of the night or in the afternoon which is almost non-existent in India.

?9.??Sporting culture is also built during school time. In India, most schools have just one period for sports which is also taken away to cover up other subjects. There are no major incentives for sporting students to pursue their sports as it doesn’t fetch them any additional marks or an assured job. There are certain exceptions but the majority of parents prefer their kids to get a job via studies rather than via sports.

Institutional Support

10.?No country can progress in sports unless it is well supported by its public and private institutions. The government has a major role to play in it. One has seen many MPs and MLAs visiting homes of players and taking credit for their successes but the reality is that most of them are never interested in uplifting the sports culture of their constituencies. The percentage of MPLAD funds being spent on sports is almost negligible.

?11.?The government has to step in to lead the way. The expenditure on sports and health should have a similar percentage of a nation’s GDP. If its people are healthy, its expenses on health will automatically reduce. Hence any amount spent on sports and healthy living is savings on expenses on illnesses. Government also has to set up fields of excellence where sporting talent is nurtured from school level and brought up to a finishing stage.

?12.?The semi-government autonomous agencies can also play a huge role here. The growth and upliftment of cricket in India can be wholly attributed to management by BCCI which is an autonomous body. We can have similar bodies for other sports and events. The states can also play their part here. Sponsorship of India hockey teams by Odisha is a shining example of how dedication by just one state can bring glory to the nation.

?13.?In addition to this, the expenditure by the private sector has been a major contributor to upliftment of sports in India. Firms like Tatas & JSW have been sponsoring many athletes including India’s gold medal winner, Neeraj Chopra for their foreign training. If companies can spend just 1% of their CSR funds on athletics and sports, the nation can benefit hugely.

14. ??Other government institutions like the Armed forces have immensely contributed to the rise of the nation in sports. Many successful Olympians like Col Rahtore, Neeraj Chopra, Satish have been products of Indian Army and missions like Mission Olympics of Indian Army have revived the sporting culture of the nation. Army has a policy of selecting and training budding athletes on sports quota which not only provide facilities to underprivileged athletes to come up but also gives them a secured job when they are not financially stable. The story of legend Milkha Singh’s training and journey in the army is well known to all.

?Predictive Model

15.?This paper has taken into view all the above factors and given them a weightage which has been proved by statistical data over a period of time. These factors are put into regression which gives a model which can be used to predict a country’s overall sporting prowess and can be extended to estimate medals in Olympics.

16.?Any independent agency can undertake a survey to fill up the comparative data above and extrapolate that for performance in sports. We have taken up cases of major Olympic powers till date predicting their medal tally in future. It is assumed that India can win at least 17 medals in the 2032 Olympics if efforts being put in now continue. However, if there are major changes to sports policy at national level and additional infrastructure is developed, the tally can go up further We estimate that the medal tally in new two Olympics will be as under: -

??(the calculations in this model are based on current data and trends; the same will vary is additional efforts or resources are devoted by a nation. Model is not being shared due to copyright issues)?

?Conclusion

17.?India has come a long way from reliance on just a few games like hockey to many other sporting disciplines to win medals in Olympics. Organising Commonwealth games was a good effort to build national pride in sports. ?We still have a long way to go before we reach our destiny. Efforts being put now need to be enhanced to reach the desired levels. Olympics will continue to define the destiny of the nations and hence India must do its best to top the table in Olympics and claim its rightful place in the world order.

Author – Col Ajay Dogra is a former UN diplomat and trainer who is currently pursuing executive MBA from ISB Hyderabad. Views are based on personal research.