The Oligarchic Drift: What a Trump Victory Could Mean for American Democracy

As the 2024 election approaches, political discourse in America grows more contentious by the day. One question looming large is whether a second Trump presidency would push the United States toward oligarchy—where a small, wealthy elite wields disproportionate influence over political and economic life. Comparisons to Russia under Vladimir Putin are inevitable, and they offer a stark warning about what happens when political power becomes enmeshed with business elites, stifling democracy and concentrating wealth in the hands of a few.

The American Dream, Oligarchic Reality?

For decades, political scientists have debated whether the United States has already developed oligarchic tendencies. The growing wealth gap, corporate influence in politics, and declining social mobility have all fueled fears that democracy is at risk. In a landmark 2014 study by Princeton and Northwestern University scholars, America was identified as an "oligarchy in practice," with the interests of the economic elite significantly outweighing the will of the majority when it comes to policy decisions.

The return of Donald Trump to the White House could exacerbate this drift. Throughout his first term, Trump favored policies that disproportionately benefited the wealthiest Americans, such as tax cuts for corporations and the affluent. Critics argued that his administration’s economic policies widened the gap between the rich and poor, a trend that could continue or even accelerate if he wins in 2024.

Moreover, Trump’s adversarial stance toward established democratic norms—denying election results, undermining trust in institutions, and appointing loyalists to key positions—raises concerns about what happens when a populist leader allies with the country's richest and most powerful.

A Mirror Image: Russia’s Oligarchy

Russia’s experience under Putin provides a chilling case study of how this scenario might play out. When Putin first came to power in 2000, he leveraged his relationships with the country's most powerful oligarchs—figures who had accumulated vast wealth during Russia's chaotic transition from communism to capitalism. Rather than dismantling their influence, Putin consolidated it. Today, oligarchs such as Roman Abramovich and Alisher Usmanov wield significant control over entire sectors of Russia’s economy, from energy to media. In exchange for their loyalty, Putin ensures their wealth and influence remain untouched, while those who dissent, like former oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky, face imprisonment or exile.

One key to Putin's success in building a lasting oligarchic system has been his ability to weaken democratic institutions while maintaining an illusion of legitimacy. Elections are held, but opposition candidates are routinely marginalized or harassed, and the media—mostly controlled by Kremlin-friendly oligarchs—helps shape public opinion in Putin’s favor. This fa?ade of democracy hides a system where economic power and political power are inextricably linked, and dissent is repressed.

Trump's Playbook and the Path to Oligarchy

A Trump victory in 2024 could set America on a similar course. During his presidency, Trump made clear his admiration for authoritarian leaders like Putin, praising their strength and often downplaying their human rights abuses. His attempts to discredit the media, judiciary, and other democratic checks suggest a willingness to weaken the pillars of American democracy to consolidate personal power.

Trump also fostered close relationships with billionaires and corporate magnates. Figures like Steve Wynn, the casino mogul, and Peter Thiel, the Silicon Valley billionaire, were key backers of Trump’s political agenda. Through appointments like Secretary of Education Betsy DeVos, a billionaire philanthropist with extensive political connections, and cabinet members drawn from the corporate elite, Trump signaled a preference for governing through alliances with America’s wealthy class.

If Trump were to return to power, these relationships could solidify into a more permanent oligarchic structure. His platform, which includes dismantling federal regulations on business, attacking public institutions, and expanding tax cuts, would likely continue to empower the ultra-wealthy, widening the already gaping inequality that characterizes much of American life today.

From Democratic Norms to Authoritarianism

In Russia, the consolidation of political and economic power has led to the erosion of democratic norms. A similar process could unfold in the United States. In his first term, Trump pushed the boundaries of presidential power—firing inspectors general, pressuring the Justice Department to pursue political opponents, and resisting congressional oversight. Another Trump term could see these trends deepen. He has repeatedly expressed disdain for constitutional limits, and his allies in Congress have supported his efforts to increase executive power. A combination of unchecked presidential authority and a ruling class of billionaires with vested interests in deregulation could erode democratic safeguards that keep oligarchic tendencies in check.

America’s saving grace could be its strong institutions and active civil society. But those institutions—independent courts, a free press, and the separation of powers—are only as strong as the leaders who uphold them and the public’s trust in them. In Russia, Putin’s skillful manipulation of elections, courts, and media created an environment where meaningful opposition became virtually impossible. Trump’s rhetoric and actions suggest that he could push the United States further down this path, undermining the institutions that protect democracy.

Lessons from Russia: A Warning for the U.S.

The rise of an oligarchic state in Russia, where a small elite controls both the economy and political system, is a cautionary tale for the United States. Russia shows how quickly the wealth of a few can become the backbone of political power, and how democracy can be undermined in the name of nationalism and “strength.”

As Americans head into the 2024 election, the stakes could not be higher. A Trump victory may not immediately turn the U.S. into an oligarchy, but the continued erosion of democratic norms, combined with economic policies that favor the ultra-rich, could deepen oligarchic trends already present. In an era of global populism, the danger lies not just in authoritarianism, but in the marriage of wealth and political power—a combination that has hollowed out democracies before, and could do so again.

If there is one lesson to be learned from Russia, it is this: the road to oligarchy is not built overnight, but step by step, as leaders erode institutions and consolidate wealth in the hands of a few. America’s future as a democratic republic may hinge on whether it can resist this drift.