Tracing is not enough - A non-commercial, non-government, open-source application is needed to restart the economy

The old “Normal” is gone and will never be back - using technology to win the Coronavirus and other viruses.  

TL;DR To restart the economy and be able to defend against future virus attacks. Regions and countries need an application that does 2 things: A. Show Green/Yellow/Red health status of an individual on the spot, B. Trace proximity to other people in past weeks.

An application like that will allow businesses such as airlines, restaurants, hotels, sport stadiums, conference centers, office buildings etc. to reopen and operate in a reasonable way. Furthermore, the global economy will be better prepared for the next virus and for mutations of COVID-19.

Without such a solution, that includes both current health status and ability to back trace possible contaminations, the economic damage will be huge even if a treatment or a vaccine are found. 

We should Not let governments develop and manage such an app. It should be a global, non-commercial, open-source community effort so privacy and freedom are kept while protecting public health and the global and local economies. 

This is a not-for-profit effort, done for the greater good. We are building an international team of volunteers to help save the world. Developers and architects that would like to contribute to the effort are invited to contact me at [email protected].

Please feel free to share: https://tinyurl.com/restarteconomy

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Updates:

I would like to thank the many that wrote me directly. Please find a list of answers to common questions below:

• What about Apple's and Google's initiative? - Google and Apple are developing Bluetooth based tracing infrastructure. It is a great solution that this application will use to solve the tracing problem.
• What about privacy? - it should be clear that user data is kept on the device. Tracing data is secured and kept on the device. Health results will also be saved locally on the device (and not sent to the servers). Health policy will be set by each country's health authorities, downloaded to the device and then compared locally with the health tests of the user to determine status.
• How will different countries use it? - The idea is to provide an open source solution that can be used as is, or taken by any country or region as basis for their local adjustments.
• Successful implementation depends on wide adoption, how will that happen? - Adoption will come because owners/operators of restaurants, office buildings, stadiums, airlines, etc. would like a way that will allow them to open and keep the customers safe. Knowing that you can enjoy your favorite restaurant without worrying about the health status of people around you is key.
• Isn't Tracing enough? - There are 3 issues with tracing only solutions. a) Low adoption (e.g. in Singapore, Israel etc.) due to privacy issues and because of limited value to the user as individual. Low adoption renders the solution useless . b) Privacy issues, esp. with GPS based applications. c) Solves only half of the problem, telling someone they may have been exposed after it happened is good for public health but users would rather get a warning in advance.
• Isn't social distancing enough? - Social distancing is important, but is not enough in places like restaurants, airplanes etc. for 2 reasons, a) running at half capacity or lower (to enable distancing) is not profitable for many businesses (think about what your favorite restaurant will look like if you have to keep people 2m/6ft apart). b) it does not solve any problem, ie. if there is a sick customer, waiters or flight attendants will spread the virus to all other customers.
• What about hacking? - Any application should be secured properly on the design and implementation level. Personal data will be kept on the device in an encrypted way. Health status will be presented as an encrypted, used-once, QR code, ie a user will not be able to fake the health status and a hacker will not be able to steal/decrypt personal medical data from the device.
• Should Blockchain be used? - Blockchain comes to mind as a solution because it is essentially a distributed, secured database. After consulting Prof. Eli Ben- Sasson co-founder of Starkware and Zcash it is clear that in this case there is no real need to use Blockchain, also currently blockchain (and its different implementations) cannot handle the volume that this application will require.
• What if instant Corona testing device is available? - There are several companies working on testing devices that will detect the Coronavirus in 1 min. just by breathing into the device (like breathalyzer). This is great. For practical use, it is probably better to test a person once or twice a day in an official testing station, record the result in the application and then allow them to enter quickly different places as their health status is updated, then to have each and every store, restaurant, office building, flight etc. test again and again each and every customer.
• How will it work in practice? - Using the application to record health status, users will be able to get a test once every day/week etc. (the frequency depends on the decision of the health authorities). Testing can take place in test kiosks at airports, malls, "drive-by" test stations etc. the results will be updated locally in the application and the user will be able to enter shops, work place, airports etc. without getting tested over and over again.
• What about mutations of COVID-19 or other, future viruses? - In the future there will be other viruses (or mutations of COVID-19), with other symptoms, different detection methods etc. Using this application society and the economy will be ready! (just like Taiwan was), preventing the disastrous outcome will be easier and much faster than it was with COVID-19.
• The proposed solution require a lot of tests to work: True, but a lot of tests will be needed anyway to get back to normal, and less tests be needed if an app can save the latest test results. Besides, after a spike in demand for test materials, it seems like now there are enough tests.

From the News

• Airline passengers undergo Covid-19 Blood Tests before boarding (CNN Apr. 16, 2020): Great initiative, but obviously very limited (think about connecting flights, international travel etc.). An application that has your health status updated after a blood test is a better way of protecting the health of air travellers https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/emirates-passengers-blood-test-covid-19/index.html
• China Doles Out Shopping Vouchers to Coax Shoppers Back to Shops (The Guardian Apr. 21, 2020): As expected, the Chinese reopened malls and restaurants but no-one is coming. People can only enjoy a restaurant, the cinema etc. if they feel safe. The Health status in the application will provide just that. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/21/china-doles-out-shopping-vouchers-to-coax-shoppers-back-to-shops-coronavirus
• IATA Head Says Social Distancing Will End Cheap Travel (Simple Flying Apr. 22, 2020). Social distancing can kill low margin businesses (and may not be that effective anyway in a closed airplane). Again, health status is the solution. IATA Head Says Social Distancing Will End Cheap Travel https://simpleflying.com/iata-social-distancing-cheap/
• Ryanair boss says airline won't fly with 'idiotic' social distancing rules (The Guardian Apr. 22, 2020). Social distancing will kill low margin businesses like some airlines , restaurants etc. by not allowing them to operate near full capacity. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/22/ryanair-boss-says-airline-wont-fly-with-idiotic-social-distancing-rules
• "MD of the health ministry: if you want to open malls you need to track customers" (TheMarker Apr 23, 2020): The managing director of the health ministry in Israel: we cannot open malls without an application to track customers https://www.themarker.com/coronavirus/1.8793390

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It should be said clearly, we cannot go back to Normal, the old “normal” simply does not exist anymore.

To protect people, global economy, and the world order as we know it, there will be a new “normal”. The new normal will take into account the current COVID-19 situation, as well as safety measures against future virus attacks. Technology plays a key role in enabling the new norm, as detailed below. 

In 2001, shortly before 9.11, Moshe Bar and I started Qlusters, an open-source cloud management platform (long before it was called “cloud”). 

Before the attack, one could easily board a plane with a knife like a Leatherman super tool on the belt without a problem. The terror attack changed all that over night. Coming from Israel we were used to security guards and checks at entrances to shopping malls, restaurants and many other public places, it became part of the norm after many suicide bombers attacks took place at the end of the 90s. After 9.11 airport screening in the US became very tight almost overnight, a new normal was set and obviously there is no turning back. 

When bad things happen on such a large scale, we do not go back to normal. We define a new normal that has built-in defenses against whatever happened so it does not happen again.

Just like with security checks, that were not lifted or relaxed when the terror risk was reduced. Obviously, the economic impact of the Coronavirus is far greater than that of any terror attack, ie. to deal with it we need measures to match.

Think about going to your favorite restaurant, let's assume they can cut down the number of visitors to allow social distancing and still stay in business. The waiters are like Corona spreading agents, will they replace gloves after each time to bring or take something from a table? that will probably not work. Will you feel comfortable in this situation? knowing the waiter may have just collected contaminated dishes from one of the other table before coming to you.

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The question is what is needed for places that host lots of people like sport stadiums, hotels, office buildings, airports, restaurants etc. to function again in a reasonable way.

2 things are needed:

1. Green/Yellow/Red instant health status - A way to know someone is safe, i.e. healthy, before entering a place with lots of people.
2. Back Tracing - Once someone is identified as a potential health risk, eg. a positive carrier of a virus - a way to find and notify all the people that might have been infected.

Both parts are important, tracing along is not enough, as there is little personal comfort in finding out after the fact that you were exposed to a deadly virus (although it helps society that you isolate yourself afterwards).

Google and Apple are cooperating to solve the tracing problem (see here https://techcrunch.com/2020/04/10/apple-and-google-are-launching-a-joint-covid-19-tracing-tool/and :

https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/29/test-and-trace-with-apple-and-google/). 

Basically they will enable the smartphones we all carry to record all bluetooth identifiers around them in an anonymous way. This will provide an easy way to find and update all those who were in touch with a virus carrier over the past n days (14 in the case of COVID-19).

China and Taiwan have launched a government run and controlled application that solves the health status part (see here: https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-china-health-software-color-coded-how-it-works-2020-4 and

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/01/business/china-coronavirus-surveillance.html). 

In other words, healthy people, eg. those who recovered from the virus, or those who were recently tested negative, are marked Green or Bright Green in the app. While positive carriers, patients, or people that are considered at risk of being carriers are marked Red or Yellow. 

The good news is the health status system is working! Taiwan managed to contain the virus right away, despite being very close to China, because they were prepared and developed the system after the SARS outbreak. China is able to go back to work thanks to the app, for example, one can only enter a train station or the subway if their status is green.

The bad news is in China, if the government decides that you are “yellow” or “red” your app reflects that and there is nothing you can do about it. You will not be able to use public transportation and there are probably other limitations. It is also safe to assume that there is no real transparency re. why you are identified as yellow or red, and what is the criteria behind it. 

While the solution is good in principal, it is bad for Western democracies. 

The purpose of this initiative is to develop an open-source application based on the Apple and Google API that will keep our privacy and freedom while protecting public health and the global and local economies. 

Google and Apple did a good job providing infrastructure for tracing while protecting the user’s privacy (although when you think about it they and others like the cellular operators, already have the information even today). 

Uploading medical data to the app. will be done with user consent only. Also the medical data itself will not be exposed but rather will only be used to determine the user health status. 

The other motivation is to be able to use the same app across borders and between countries that trust each others’ medical systems, e.g. the US and Canada. 

Furthermore, a quick, non-commercial, development of such application by the open-source community, and wide adoption by businesses like sport stadiums, office buildings, restaurants, hotels, airports and other places with lots of people, will hopefully create a defacto standard that will reduce the risk of governments imposing their applications (like they do in China and Taiwan). 

There are 3 major issues with a government controlled application:

1. Privacy concerns 
2. Low adoption due to privacy concerns 
3. Does not work in other countries. 

Since wide adoption is crucial for such an application to work well in-country and across countries, a non-government, non-commercial, open-source application that people can trust is a far better solution.  

How will it work? 

1. Pending user consent, certified medical centers, test facilities etc. will be able to update the user’s relevant medical exam results, eg. tested negative for COVID-19, or had no temperature etc.
2. The results will update the users’ app and will be saved locally in an encrypted way.
3. The parameters required to specify if a patient is Yellow or Red will be specified by an official national medical institute, e.g. the CDC.
4. Positive users will be able to anonymously update all other users they might have exposed (user controlled, or by default).
5. Places like restaurants, airports, stadiums, malls, office buildings, airports, supermarkets, hotels etc. will ask visitors to present “Green status” in order to enter. 
6. Other people in those places will know that the people around them are all “Green” and will be able to enjoy the venue without fear.
7. What if someone does not want to use the application? That is totally fine! Say you do not want to pass the security check at the airport, or you do not want to go through the metal detector at a stadium? You simply do not enter. The same is true here, if you would like to enter a restaurant that uses the application, you will need to show your status, so the people who are already dining inside feel safe knowing that only "Green" people sit next to them.

It is important to keep in mind that a solution like that is needed regardless of COVID-19. The world has to prepare for the next virus attack. Just imagine how things would look like if a future virus hurts kids (God forbid), rather than old and mostly sick people. Imagine the level of panic, the damage to the economy etc. 

This application is essential to help restart the economy, but also, and as important, to make sure we are prepared before the next attack.

This is a not-for-profit effort, done for the greater good. We are building an international super stars team of volunteers to build the application and the required infrastructure. Open-source developers, architects, full stack, server, front-end, Android and iOS that are willing and able to contribute to the effort are invited to contact me directly at [email protected] or via Linkedin at https://www.dhirubhai.net/in/ofer97/

I will greatly appreciate it if you can share and help get the word out https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/old-normal-gone-never-back-restarting-economy-future-ofer-shoshan

Thank you,

Ofer

Ofer Shoshan. 

https://www.dhirubhai.net/in/ofer97/

[email protected]

I would like to thank Marten Mickos, Moshe Bar, Tomer Ben-Kiki, Prof. Eli Ben-Sasson, Micol Debash, Meirav Gal and Dr. Adam Roiter for their insights, feedback and corrections. I am the only one to blame for any remaining issues or errors. 

#Coronavirus, #COVID-19, #Savingtheeconomy