Oilytics Charts of the Week: Week 16

Chart 1:

The Dollar Index was set for its 5th weekly loss which is the longest stretch of weekly losses since 2020. Dollar spec length positioning has changed dramatically from inflows to outflows which continues to boost the oil markets and flat price levels as risk on environment sets hold despite the banking crisis only seen over a month ago. (Source: CFTC)

Chart 2:

Chinese refinery runs surged in March to a record high to 14.9MMBD. Ramp up of new private refineries continues to contribute to this jump in numbers. With more new capacity coming online, we should see numbers breaching above 15MMBD very soon and will continue to keep Chinese crude imports elevated. (Source: NBS China)

Chart 3:

China and India continue to report strong refinery runs as they benefit from cheap Russian crude and strong local domestic demand. Combined runs breached above 20MMBD (+1.3MMBD y/y) for the first time ever mainly due to China’s March runs hitting a record high. (Source: PPAC and NBS China)

Chart 4:

Chinese exports of the main refined products took a tumble m/m and does not reflect the rising refinery runs which hit a record high in March. Despite exports being higher y/y they remain 40-50% lower from 2018-20 levels. (Source: China Customs)

Chart 5:

Brent flat price and curve have come off significantly since the surprise OPEC cuts seen earlier this month. However, unlike pre-OPEC cuts, the whole curve remains in backwardation (for now) and spreads are higher as OPEC attempts to tighten the market in 2H. (Source: ICE)