Oil, Russia, China, Syria (Prozumerzen 01)

Prosumerzen 01: Power is not about knowledge but about understanding

Dears All,

Important Upgrades

Life: Corona virus : https://extranet.who.int/publicemergency

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1) Oil: at 8.49 am GMT+1

WTI derivate October 2020: 50.89$ +1.21%

Brent Derivate October 2020: 54.85$ +0.73%

? Note: Today we have that China reduces its demand ( minus 3 ML barrel/day) = additional available surplus = at this level of surplus there is not a political crisis in the region as well as in Lybia or Venezuela or Nigeria and Indonesia or Russia that can justify that the prices will rise.

The trend: both derivates from March to October have a small improving that meant stability on terms of revenue even if they are not enough for countries like Russia, Iran, Venezuela or the KSA with a de fact mono-product export. The UAE are the most advanced economy among the energy producers because the diversification programs are achieving a substantial positive impact. 

Inside the GCC:

- " The UAE banking sector can maintain its resilient performance with stable credit profiles this year, according to S&P Global Ratings. Provided it doesn’t have to bear the burden of any unexpected increase in geopolitical risk sor a major fall in oil prices." https://gulfnews.com/business/banking/geopolitics-can-be-a-headache-for-uae-banks-in-2020-1.69462997?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Business_20200203_PM

- The KSA is more problematic

And among the other players in the NEMA:

- Russia ... where is the money to fund actions in the region?

- Iran ... the same, is it?

- China ... due to the internal problems and, till the crisis last, having enough oil Beijing has not interest on be more involved, (please not forget that last week UAE lent 700 Ml$ to Pakistan ...)

- the USA are a net exporter since 2015 then when we talk about oil/gas Washington is the strongest player in the world because Washington does not need to import and the oil industry, (export), is only a % of the global USA economy ...

2) Syria

This also explains that till now Moscow is silent about what is going on between Syria and Turkey.

? Note: when President Erdogan reminds to Moscow to respect its engagement it is like when Premier Netanyahu did the same when Iran located near the Israeli border and launched missiles. In both cases Moscow was powerless with an allied.

3) China

Since June 2019 we tell that President Xi will "lose his face" because on 2021 will not able to achieve the 1st of the promised 4 Strategic Points.

Logically we told that using other reasons and not the corona virus but it is cleat that this crisis is a "political bonanza" for him because he will use to justify the on 2021 cannot achieve the promised goal.

We will see how this "alibi" will work.

Surely we have YET an internal political struggle.

? Note: today Beijing asks for help telling that was not able to face the crisis. To build-up an hospital in few days at the end of the day it IS NOT so impressive when the hospital lacks of drugs and medical instruments, is it? It is.

Then? China needs to import drugs and medical instruments with a middle added value that shows how is fragile its economy on geopolitical terms because not able to supply strategic assets

I wish a nice day!

that life drives non-life away