Oil & gas rush and doubling down on climate litigation as trade wars loom
Offshore Energy Today
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The past two weeks bear the mark of brewing global instability, growing tariff threats, and a myriad of other plays and events, including new oil and gas discoveries, acquisitions, and various energy project updates. The energy market has found itself in the midst of trade wars that are lurking around the corner, but cutting off the oil juice may not be a feasible business course of action for Canada, despite the growing calls to take such a step as a pre-emptive strike or in retaliation, if the U.S. imposes the tariffs President Donald Trump announced before deciding to put such plans on ice for a month.
While Canada could still use the black gold card to pile the pressure on Trump to make him give up on imposing tariffs, forcing the U.S. President's hand may also backfire, as he may decide to call the country's bluff and go ahead with a 25% tariff on Canadian products and a 10% tariff on energy resource products. This would put Canadian businesses under strain, as economic challenges would continue to mount. In acknowledgment of this, Canada and its provinces are contemplating some previously rejected moves, such as building more oil and gas pipelines in Quebec which had not been keen on such proposals before, to diversify its exports.
Some believe diversification is long overdue to end the reliance on the U.S. and build closer ties with other nations, like the ones in Asia. No one knows with certainty what may be in store. However, if tariffs are implemented, they will probably lead to costs of around $86 billion annually, affecting multiple industries, including crude oil and natural gas. The motivation behind Trump's tariff threat was to bring Canada under the control of the U.S. and integrate it into 'the land of the free and the home of the brave.'
In response to Trump's tariff threats, Premier David Eby revealed counter-measures to stand up for British Colombia’s workers and businesses, directing the BC Liquor Distribution Branch to stop buying American liquor from red states, and remove the top-selling 'red-state' brands from the shelves of public liquor stores; and the B.C. government and Crown corporations to buy Canadian goods and services first.
To mitigate the impact on B.C., Premier Eby confirmed that private-sector projects worth $20 billion were being assessed to get them approved as quickly as possible, by issuing their permits faster to create 6,000 jobs in remote and rural communities. The list of projects to be fast-tracked is said to entail the Haisla Nation’s Cedar LNG, Enbridge’s T-North gas pipelines, and NEBC Connector pipelines for condensate and natural gas liquids.
"We won’t back down or be bullied into becoming another state. Our province is unified and resolute. We'll never stop standing up for B.C. and Canada,” underlined Premier Eby.
B.C.'s preliminary assessment of 25% tariffs showed that the province could see a cumulative loss of $69 billion in economic activity between 2025 and 2028, alongside more than 120,000 jobs. In addition, 25% tariffs on Canadian mineral exports are estimated to have the potential to cost American companies over $11 billion with "a profound effect" on the U.S. defense industry, energy production, and manufacturing.
The B.C. government has come up with a three-point approach to fight back against the tariffs with tough counter-actions and outreach to American decision-makers; strengthen the economy by expediting projects and supporting industry and workers; and diversify trade markets for products to make British Columbia less reliant on U.S. markets and customers.
Canada is perceived to be America's key supplier, providing 60% of crude oil imports, 85% of electricity imports, and more than 99% of natural gas imports contributing to energy security and affordability for U.S. consumers and businesses.
While Canada's electricity exports power nearly 6 million U.S. homes, Canadian uranium imported into the United States to be used for nuclear power generates enough electricity to power 18 million American homes.
"The U.S. administration’s decision to impose tariffs will have devastating consequences for the American economy and people. Tariffs will upend production at U.S. auto assembly plants and oil refineries, raise costs for American consumers—at gas pumps and grocery stores—and put American prosperity at risk," underscored the Canadian government.
According to Wood Mackenzie's 'How would Trump tariffs affect North American oil markets?' report, the U.S. tariffs of 10% and 25% on Canadian and Mexican oil products, respectively, would set in motion a significant shift in crude flows in North America as higher prices would push a portion of U.S. imports into overseas markets, with higher ensuing prices ultimately affecting demand in the U.S. with a softer impact than a more disruptive 25% tariff on Canadian oil.
Dylan White, Principal Analyst for North American Crude Markets at Wood Mackenzie, elaborated: “A wide range of scenarios are still at play, as the implementation of tariffs has been delayed by a month. The uncertainty surrounding US policy is likely to continue; ongoing talks could lead to a lifting of tariffs or could spiral into steeper penalties on oil imports. As the tariffs currently stand, the North American market will see several impacts.”
Should a 25% tariff scenario on Mexican oil be put into play, Wood Mackenzie expects Mexico exports to largely shift away from America to other outlets in Europe and Asia, potentially impacting around 600 kb/d of imports from Mexico into the U.S. Such a blow could be softened by the shutdown of the Lyondell Houston refinery and the start-up of Pemex's Dos Bocas refinery.
White noted: “Backfill options for heavy barrels in the US crude slate, especially in the US West Coast and US Gulf Coast, would need to come from waterborne imports via Latin American and Middle East countries. Iraq, in particular, flexes the largest alternate pool of heavy crude exports. However, these imports are generally cost disadvantaged compared to nearby Canadian and Mexican heavy supply.
“Steeper tariffs on Mexico would likely shift Mayan imports away from the US, with subsequently tighter heavy balances leading to slightly higher relative heavy prices in the US Gulf Coast. Beyond that, we expect the higher tariff costs will get backed into wider crude differentials in Mexico and Canada.”
Moreover, Wood Mackenzie expects Canadian crude would continue largely being consumed in the U.S. mid-continent and Gulf Coast even if a 10% tariff scenario on Canadian oil comes to pass; thus, the firm does not expect such a tariff would be substantial enough to shift Canadian barrels away from the U.S. Gulf Coast and into Asia.
White pointed out: “Refineries in the Midcon are landlocked and have limited access to alternate sources of heavy crude and are therefore dependent on Canadian supply. However, Canadian outlets to non-US destinations become advantaged. The Trans Mountain Pipeline (including TMX) provides access to the Pacific Basin and would likely facilitate increased shipments of Canadian crude to Asia, and away from the US West Coast, in a tariff scenario.”
After U.S. President Trump’s threatened imposition of tariffs, Climate Action Network Canada outlined: "Oil interests and their political mouthpieces have been quick to capitalize on this crisis with calls to fast-track BC’s Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) exports to Asia and even resurrect long-dead pipelines like Energy East or Northern Gateway. While this industry plays the 'Made in Canada' patriotism card when it benefits them, the reality is that Canada’s oil and gas industry is largely US-owned.
"These projects are backed by billionaires and Wall Street investment firms who are close allies of and donors to Trump, eager to embrace Canada as the 51st state and prioritize the interests of their majority-US financiers and shareholders. We call on our leaders not to fall into the trap of obeying tyranny in advance or to let U.S.-owned fossil fuel corporations exploit this crisis. Canadian governments must respond in a way that upholds our values, protects workers and those most at risk, and makes our country more resilient for years to come."
Based on Wood Mackenzie's analysis, tariffs would drive oil demand 50,000 b/d lower in the U.S. by 2026, partially due to modestly higher refined product prices, but the relief from domestic producers is unlikely, as the firm forecasts measured U.S. Lower 48 production growth in the years to come, driven by oil majors in the Permian, as producers remain cash disciplined. In line with this, the company emphasizes that drilling investment in recent years has shown little reactivity to changes in crude prices.
Aside from Canada and Mexico, the U.S. President also disclosed additional 10% tariffs on Chinese goods, which served to add fuel to the America-China trade war fire, as the Asian country took swift action, announcing an additional 15% tariff on U.S. coal and LNG, alongside 10% more on American crude imports.
Meanwhile, after Trump set his 'drill, baby, drill' agenda in motion and put a freeze on offshore wind leasing, many renewable energy developers expressed dissatisfaction with such a move. One of the more recent calls to begin with offshore wind leasing area awards in Norway as soon as possible, which came from Hans Petter Ovrevik, Deep Wind Offshore's CCO, modifies Trump's rallying cry for oil and gas boom to adopt it for offshore wind leasing purposes, changing the chant to 'lease, baby, lease!'
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? Equinor has prolonged the contract for Odfjell Drilling 's Deepsea Atlantic semi-submersible rig until the end of Q2 2027, adding around $148 million to the offshore drilling player's backlog.
? Valaris Limited has confirmed that its Valaris 144 rig is on the move and sailing toward Angola to begin its new drilling job after wrapping up a project at the Kiewit Shipyard in Corpus Christi, Texas.
? Since Saipem 's Saipem 10000 drilling has arrived, エニ is preparing to drill two wells at the Zohr field offshore Egypt.
? TotalEnergies has hired Stena Drilling 's Stena DrillMAX drillship for managed pressure drilling of one exploration well at TotalEnergies' prospect offshore Suriname. This deal can be extended to include up to three more wells.
? V?r Energi received a drilling permit for the wellbore 7/1-4 S in the Norwegian North Sea, which was set to be drilled using COSL Drilling Europe AS ' COSL Pioneer semi-submersible drilling rig.
? Salunda and Intellilift teamed up to install a solution to optimize the safety of critical equipment and personnel on four drilling rigs offshore Guyana.
? Noble Corporation plans to permanently put out of drilling work two cold-stacked drillships to optimize its costs and fleet.
? エニ has prolonged Well-Safe Solutions ' decommissioning assignment for subsea and platform wells across projects in the Dutch North Sea.
? With a court order now in, a legal battle over an alleged contract breach is close to the finish line. To this end, Seadrill was ordered to pay multimillion-dollar compensation to SFL Corporation Ltd. as the owner of a semi-submersible rig, hired under the contract that led to the dispute between the duo. Should either company hand in an appeal, the court fight will continue.
? Once drilling was out of the way with drillships owned by Noble Corporation and Seadrill , respectively, LLOG Exploration began development studies for two hydrocarbon-bearing wells in its three-well exploration/appraisal campaign in the U.S. #Gulf of Mexico, to be renamed the Gulf of America.
? Noble Corporation has secured a new drilling gig with 壳牌 in the Americas.
? Transocean 's semisubmersible rig is almost done with preparations for its drilling assignment in the Black Sea, which will be undertaken on a gas project in Romania.
? Upon striking black gold again in Namibia’s Orange Basin, TotalEnergies has turned to drill its next well in the African country with Northern Ocean Ltd. (NOL) and managed by Odfjell Drilling .
? BW Energy has kicked off drilling activities at the last well in its current program at an oil field offshore Gabon with Borr Drilling 's Norve jack-up rig.
? Three Noble Corporation 's drillships and one owned by Stena Drilling have kick-started drilling activities at the Stabroek block offshore Guyana, allowing ExxonMobil to keep looking for more oil and gas resources on South America’s North Atlantic coast.
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? 康菲石油公司 has taken over the operator role from PETRONAS at the Kebabangan Cluster production sharing contract (KBBC PSC).
? ANP - Agência Nacional do Petróleo, Gás Natural e Biocombustíveis has approved the unification of the Berbig?o and Sururu fields, forming part of concession BM-S-11A offshore Brazil, enabling the production of the two fields to be reported as a single unit.
? Based on TotalEnergies ' latest update, the Tyra redevelopment project in the Danish sector of the North Sea is slated to achieve plateau production in February 2025.
? Sunda Energy Plc has embarked on an environmental baseline survey to prep for drilling activities at an appraisal well located on a gas field off the coast of Timor-Leste.
? DeepTech and Petroleum Marine Services have put into production mode the third and final well which is part of Phase 10 of the West Delta Deep Marine (WDDM) gas field development project offshore Egypt.
? 哈里伯顿 has secured a three-year assignment with Petrobras to provide integrated drilling services for development and exploration wells across several offshore fields in Brazil.
? Petrobras has attributed the ramp-up in its proven reserves of oil, condensate, and natural gas to the progress in the development of the Atapu and Sépia fields, and the performance of assets in the pre-salt Santos Basin off the coast of Brazil.
? Thanks to the asset swap deal, SBM Offshore got its hands on a stake in the FPSO Espirito Santo, which is deployed offshore Brazil, enabling MISC Group to secure an interest in FPSO Kikeh working off the coast of Malaysia.
? Vaalco Energy has confirmed a timeline for the departure of an FPSO, operated by Canadian Natural Resources (CNRL), from a deepwater oil field offshore Africa to undergo a revamp in the UAE, enabling the extension of the hydrocarbon production from the field, possibly beyond 2038.
? 贝克休斯 has secured a long-term contract with ExxonMobil Guyana , a subsidiary of the U.S.-based ExxonMobil for specialty chemicals and related services to be provided for the U.S. oil major’s FPSOs Errea Wittu and Jaguar, which will be deployed at the Uaru and Whiptail offshore greenfield developments in Guyana’s prolific Stabroek block.
? SeaBird Exploration and Energy Drilling have set the wheels in motion to merge into a combined diversified offshore oil & gas services company
? 雪佛龙 is convinced that Hess Corporation will win the ongoing arbitration proceedings with its remaining Stabroek block partners, ExxonMobil Guyana and China National Offshore Oil Corp. , initiated over the sale of interests in assets offshore Guyana. As a result, the oil major has taken the required steps to ensure it can enclose Hess’ upstream assets into its portfolio after the arbitration ends, which is now anticipated within three months following the hearing in May 2025.
? Guyana’s gas-to-energy project, which is getting a $51.2 billion boost, is designed to advance the infrastructure build-out required to allow for natural gas to be transported from ExxonMobil 's offshore oil field in the waters of the Stabroek block to an integrated natural gas liquid (NGL) plant and a 300 MW combined cycle power plant at Wales on the West Bank of Demerara.
? Saipem 's assignment concerning the upgrade of offshore platforms and facilities at a natural gas project offshore Libya in North Africa will be supported by ABL Group .
? V?r Energi 's agreement for subsea production systems delivery with OneSubsea , a joint venture consisting of 斯伦贝谢 , Aker Solutions , and Subsea7 , is anticipated to fast-track subsea tie-back developments, curbing the time required for the project by up to one year.
? 壳牌 's new FPSO has restarted production from the Penguins oil and gas field in the North Sea that was turned off in 2021.
? 贝克休斯 has won a job offshore Nigeria to supply its integrated digital production optimization solution for offshore operations, which is said to assist operators in revering "?????? ???????????????? ???? ?????????????? ???????? ?????????? ?????????????????? ???????????? ????????????????.”
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? Staatsolie Maatschappij Suriname N.V has embarked on a quest to secure the funds required to cover its part of the development costs for the first-ever offshore #oil field development in Suriname, which is operated by TotalEnergies .
? 雪佛龙 will get a new partner at its gas field offshore Israel, as Union Energy has opted to sell its stake to State Oil Company of the Republic of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) .
? McDermott International, Ltd has finished earlier than expected all its tasks related to offshore installation and commissioning of a project offshore Malaysia.
? Karoon Energy is negotiating the acquisition of an FPSO deployed on its project offshore Brazil with the unit’s current owner and operator, Altera&Ocyan (A&O). This vessel will not be in production mode for a month, enabling a faulty gas lift valve to be replaced next quarter.
? TotalEnergies has opted to postpone a final investment decision for its giant oil discovery in the Orange Basin offshore Namibia until next year. The French giant has set its cap on drilling two prospects in the African country this year.
? Aker BP ASA has drilled another well in the Norwegian North Sea with one of Odfjell Drilling 's rigs but it turned out to be dry.
? bp has found more oil and gas with a Valaris Limited -owned rig in the northern Mediterranean within the Egyptian Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).
? Hartshead Resources NL has amended the gas offtake route for natural gas development in the UK North Sea and submitted a revised concept select report addendum (CSRA) to the North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA) on its behalf as its joint venture (JV) partners did not back the submission.
? China National Offshore Oil Corp. has commenced production at its oilfield project in Bohai Bay which is said to represent "?? ?????? ?????????? ?????? ?????? ?????????????? ???? ?????? ?????????????????????? ???? ???????????????? ???????? ???????? ?????????????????????? ???????????? ???????? ?????? ?????? ?????? ???????????????????? ???? ???????? ???? ?????? ???????????????????????? ???? ?????? ?????????? ???????? ????????. ???? ???????????????? ?????? ??????????????’?? ???????????? ???????????? ???????????????? ?????? ??????-???????????? ??????????????????????," according to Yan Hongtao, CNOOC’s President.
? Karoon Energy is anticipating to be ready around April 2025 to decide whether it will move forward with the next stage of development, which represents the entry into front-end engineering design (FEED), for an oil field discovery in the Santos Basin offshore Brazil.
? 雪佛龙 has expanded its footprint in Namibia’s offshore oil and gas ecosystem by getting its hands on a new license, where it will assume the mantle of operator at two blocks in the African country.
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? One of the updates on the LNG projects came from Patrick Pouyanné, TotalEnergies ' Chief Executive Officer, who revealed that the U.S. Export-Import bank was weeks away from giving the go-ahead for $4.7 billion in financing to enable the financing of its Mozambique LNG .
After the firm's CEO stated Venture Global LNG was turned down as an LNG supplier, the latter said in response: “We have always had great respect for Total, but we are disappointed to see them sound like just another foreign incumbent threatened by growing US LNG supply. It’s not a ‘trick’, it’s innovation. Venture Global has now proven twice that our unique 18+ factory-built train configuration can bring US LNG to the market both years faster and at a lower cost."
? ADNOC Gas and JERA Co., Inc. have signed a three-year LNG supply deal, which brings the former $450 million, thanks to natural gas sourced from the UAE giant’s Das Island liquefaction facility, with a production capacity of around 6 million tonnes per annum (mtpa).
? ARGENT LNG has penned a heads of agreement (HOA) with the government of Bangladesh for the sale of LNG from the proposed export facility in Port Fourchon, Louisiana.
? Svitzer has signed a contract with Oman LNG, a joint venture company between the Government of the Sultanate of Oman and seven global energy players, to provide towage services at a liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal near the town of Sur, Oman.
? Venture Global LNG has ordered 贝克休斯 ' equipment for its LNG projects in the United States and inked a multi-year services frame agreement for its LNG terminal in Louisiana.
? NNPC Limited has held a groundbreaking ceremony for five mini LNG plants in Ajaokuta, Nigeria’s Kogi State, with a combined capacity of 97 million standard cubic feet of gas per day (mmscf/d).
? 贝克休斯 has been picked to provide liquefaction solutions, power generation equipment, and gas compression systems for ARGENT LNG , with a capacity of approximately 24 million mtpa of LNG.
? EemsEnergyTerminal, a subsidiary of Vopak and Gasunie , has embarked on a mission to make up its mind about remaining in the LNG business after 2027 with the launch of an open season for the storage and regasification of LNG in Eemshaven after 2027.
? GTT (Gaztransport & Technigaz) has got a new tank design assignment for an LNG carrier with Samsung Heavy Industries (SHI).
? GTT also joined forces with COSCO Shipping LNG Investment and COSCO Shipping Heavy Industry to explore joint development of LNG and ethane carriers, alongside FLNG units and crude carriers.
? Harvest Alaska, Marathon Petroleum Corporation , and Chugach Electric Association have taken action to allow an existing LNG terminal in Nikiski on Alaska’s Kenai Peninsula to change ownership and be redeveloped to unlock new gas flows, keeping looming supply shortages in check.
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? With the launch of a public consultation process, Energistyrelsen is seeking public comments for the environmental impact report on the Greensand Future CO2 storage project in the North Sea.
? MODEC and Toyo Engineering Corporation have won an approval in principle (AiP) from 美国船级社 for a blue ammonia floating production storage and offloading unit design with onboard carbon capture technology.
? Aize has received a four-year contract to handle the expansion of its software across bp 's facilities globally, building upon technical and operational delivery in the North Sea, Caspian Sea, and West Africa.
? Following a court ruling, the development of 壳牌 's Jackdaw and Equinor and Ithaca Energy 's Rosebank projects, which are said to be among the largest undeveloped oil and gas fields offshore the UK, has suffered another setback due to no assessment being provided for Scope 3 emissions, which is now perceived to be a requirement to get an approval from the government. The companies still have a chance to submit this and get new approval from the government but the environmental groups remain set against these projects, so which side will win in the end is not yet clear.
? Velesto Energy Berhad sees technological advancement, supportive policy regulations, and integration of greener and cleaner power innovations as a bedrock of an equitable energy transition age. As a result, the rig owner has set its cap on growth and expansion by dipping its toes into robotics and eyeing potential deepwater plays through lease agreements.
Megat Zariman Abdul Rahim, President of Velesto Energy, emphasized: "???????? ?????? ???????? ??????????????????, ???????????????? ???? ????????-???????????? ???? ???????????? ?????? ???????? ?????? ?????????????? ???????????? ??????????????????, ???????? ???? ?????????? ????????????????, ???????????????????? ???????? ?????????????????? ???? ?????? ?????????? ???????????????? ???????? ?????? ???????????????? ???????????? ???????????????????? ?????????????? (????????). ???????? ???????????? ???????? ????????????????’?? ???????????? ???? ?????????????? ?????? ???????????? ?????????????? ???? ?????????? ?????????? ???????????????????????? ???????????? ???? ?????? ?????? ?????? ?????? ???????????? ???? ????????????????.
"?????????????? ???? ????????-???????????????????? ???? ???? ???????? ???? ???????? ????????????, ???????????????????????? ?????????????????? ?????? ?????????????????????????? ???????? ?????????????? ???????????????????? ???????????????????????? (??.??., ???????????????????? ???????????????? ????????????????????, ???????????????? ???????????????????? ??????????????????), ?????? ?????????????????? ?????? ???????????????? ???????????? ?????? ???????????? ???? ?????????????? ?????? ???????????????? ???????????? ??????????????????."
Velesto’s President, who also discussed ways to enable low-carbon and greener rigs and automated operations in the offshore drilling arena, highlighted that gas will remain in high demand in the foreseeable future, as it is expected to be the energy transition’s crown jewel. He confirmed plans to launch a robotics arm in the first quarter of 2025.
While painting a picture of the possibility of enabling zero-emission rigs, Rahim underlined the importance of taking advantage of greener alternatives to diesel, such as green methanol, to power offshore rigs and marrying carbon capture technologies and renewables to put in place decarbonization tools for a net-zero journey that will enable an equitable energy transition.
Such an approach is likely to allow Asia to strike a balance in its energy mix by 2050 between fossil fuels and renewables, which require a step up in the technological advancement game to bolster affordability.
? NNPC Limited and its joint venture partner, FIRST Exploration & Petroleum Development Company (First E&P) achieved a new milestone in efforts to curb routine flaring of associated gas from two shallow-water oil and gas fields offshore Nigeria.
? EnEarth, an Energean subsidiary, runs the Prinos CO2 Storage project, said to be the first of its kind in Southeastern Europe and East Mediterranean, which is perceived to be an integral part of the Mediterranean CCS Strategic Plan developed by France, Italy, and Greece, aiming to create the first industrial/commercial-scale CO2 storage hub in the Southeast Mediterranean.
“???? ?????? ?????????? ???? ???? ?????????????? ?? ?????????????? ???????? ???? ?????????????? ????????????, ?????? ??????????-?????????????? ?????????????????????????? ???????????? ?????? ?????? ???? ?????????? ?????????? ?????????????????????????????? ??????????, ???????????????? ?? ?????? ?????????? ???????????????????? ???????????????????? ?????? ???? ???????????????? ????????????, ???????? ???????? ?????????????? ?????????????? ?????? ?????????? ??????????????. ???????????? ????2 ???????? ?????????? ?????? ?????????? ???? ???????????? ???? ???????? ?? ?????????????? ???????? ???? ?????? ?????????? ???????????? ???? ????????????,” highlighted Nikolas R., EnEarth Head of Carbon Storage.
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Senior Editor at Offshore Energy Today, now known as Offshore Energy's Fossil Energy market
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Aposentado na Adecco
2 周Boa tarde eu sou guindasteiro offshore tenho bastante experiência já trabalhei fora do Brasil tenho passaporte estou disponível no momento se vcs tiverem precisando de um guindasteiro offshore cm bastante experiência já acharam basta mindar uma oportunidade pra mim poder mostrar meu profissionalismo no guindaste
E&Iconstruction Manager ??? VAtanaphalsal construction co.,ltd.
2 周Thanks so much. Sk.
Pneumatic tanker driver. Custom Commodities at Custom Commodities Inc
2 周OPEC does what they want to do. An they don't care what everyone else wants them to do. I remember the gas line in 78 79.. I Remember the gas prices escalating. .78cpg, .89cpg..99cpg. That was top dollar for a gallon of gas then.. I know, all this could blow up in our face too.