Oil falls as the market contemplates rising OPEC output

Highlights

The prospect of fiscal stimulus measures in China boosted sentiment. Oil markets came under pressure on fears of rising supplies.

Prices and commentary accurate as of 07:00 Sydney/05:00 Singapore/17:00(-1d) New York/22:00(-1d) London.

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Ahead Today

• Public holiday: Canada.
• Dockworkers at US East Coast and Gulf ports are poised to strike at day’s end if a new contract is not agreed
• LME Week (thru 4 Oct)
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• UK GDP.
• Listen to today's 5in5 with ANZ podcast for more on the global economy and markets

Market Commentary

Base metals recorded their biggest weekly gain since early May, as optimism over the economic backdrop improved. The LME Index gained 5.3% after China stepped up efforts to boost economic growth. China’s Politburo promised measures to help “stop the decline” in the real estate market. This followed a raft of monetary policy measures announced earlier in the week by the PBoC. Risk sentiment was also supported by data which showed the US economy bounced back from the pandemic in a stronger position than previously estimated.

The prospect of fiscal stimulus measures helped push iron ore futures back above USD100/t. The ongoing weakness in the property sector has significantly curtailed growth in steel and iron ore demand this year. Efforts to reduce inventory of unsold property will significantly shorten the time to when new construction activity will emerge.

Gold reached another record high last week after the Fed pivoted to easing monetary policy with a 50bp cut. The prospect of another 75bp this year has boosted investor demand for the precious metal. However, it gave back some of those gains late in the week after inflation data provided little evidence that the Fed needs to keep cutting aggressively. Investor demand is being supported by heightened geopolitical tension driving demand for haven assets.

Crude oil as fears mounted of rising OPEC supply. The Financial Times reported that Saudi Arabia is considering going ahead with its planned production hikes in December. The OPEC+ alliance’s efforts to stabilise the oil market have supported oil prices, but prices have come under pressure recently amid the uncertain economic outlook. Even so, we think OPEC may test the market in the short term. Despite prices being well below the average fiscal breakeven level, Saudi Arabia could withstand lower prices in the short term by increasing debt and utilising its vast foreign currency reserves. We expect OPEC will keep to its plan to start phasing out its members’ voluntary production cuts from December. We discuss this in detail in today's edition of #5in5withANZ podcast. Brent crude reversed some losses on Friday after Israel said its military struck Hezbollah’s main headquarters in southern Beirut. It was later confirmed that Israel killed Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in a strike on Beirut. The recent escalation of attacks in the Middle East is increasing the likelihood of Iran being directly dragged into the conflict, putting a significant risk around supply disruptions at the OPEC producer. Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Helene is threatening to disrupt the oil & gas industry in the south of the US.?

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Chart of the Day

The fiscal breakeven oil price for Saudi Arabi and OPEC continues to rise, despite the recent production cuts.

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5in5 with ANZ Podcast

https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/?cid=em:in:pcst:idms2045

https://open.spotify.com/show/3cxHGsGxh9Nh6hNxwMI4jX?si=eb91cf006f1d4faf