Oil commentary - 7 October 2024

Morning all. Monday. Another week, and you know what? Welcome to it. Let’s have a look at all things oily, shall we? Brent is trading this morning at $77.73, down 0.32, and WTI is trading down 0.22 at $74.16.

You know, lately I’ve found myself saying things that make me feel every bit the mid-40s that I am. Things like, when referring to new clothes, “Yeah, but I bet it washes well.” Or, when I’m driving, “Ooh, I must remember to check the offside rear tyre pressure.” And my personal favourite: “I wonder if I can sneak in a cheeky ten minutes before I go and meet the lads.”

But recently, with everything happening across the world, I find myself becoming almost stoic. Today is no exception: “Fate leads the willing and drags along the reluctant.” Blimey, Stan, really? Yes, really. Oil prices this morning are in pause mode. The quote conveys a sense that events will unfold whether we’re prepared or not—much like the market, waiting for the next headline in what is, frankly, a very tense situation. Or, in a week where Brent and WTI prices both rose over 8%, some may refer to the pause in prices as "profit-taking." I take your stoicism, Stanley, and raise you: “making a bit of money, bruv.” Fair play—I speak both languages there.

But the question everyone will be asking is: “Did Tottenham really choke like that yesterday?” Not that, but I couldn’t resist bringing it up (sorry, not sorry). NO, the real question everyone will be asking is: “What next for oil markets?” And that is a very fair question.

Last week, we saw a flurry of activity near Kharg Island offshore Iran, where several tankers were evacuated from the area—seen as a preparatory move for a possible counterattack on Iranian oil facilities. Indeed, Biden was quoted on this, and the market reacted accordingly. But if this does transpire, where does the oil market go from here?

I’m not going to comment further on that for fear of sensationalism, but with activity increasing all the time in Israel, Gaza, and Lebanon, it seems only a matter of time before the next tragic headline emerges.

Commentary returns next Monday. In the meantime, I wish everyone a safe and good week.