Oil commentary - 30 March 2022

Morning all and welcome to Wednesday. Not much going on then? War in Europe. COVID locking down China. A gas crisis. A diesel crisis. Record inflation. Evergrande. Oh, and an OPEC+ meeting tomorrow. Yeah, nah, not much. Rolls eyes. Brent is trading this morning at $111.18 up 0.95 and WTi is trading at $105.20 up 0.96.?I think that's the first time in four weeks I have mentioned prices on this commentary, and it has started with a zero. I say that, by the time I am finished writing, we'll probably be up 5 bucks, or indeed down 5 bucks. Let's put a time stamp - 0952 UAE time.?OK? STAT TIME doo doo dahh dee dum da dummm - this from my friends at Eurasia Group, and why I retain my bullish horns, (actually off that, I don't like the term bullish right now, it implies I'm happy about high oil prices, and trust me, I'm not).?Allow me to rephrase *stands to attention and clears throat "The reason I believe prices will remain supported throughout the summer".?See? I can do profeshunal. So, from Eurasia "The German government on Friday approved legislation requiring Germany's privately-operated gas storage facilities to be full at the start of winter. German law now requires facilities to be 65% full by Aug. 1, 80% full by October, when the heating season and the gas season for utilities and traders starts, and 90% by November. Storage levels, currently at 25%, must be at least 40% in February 2023.". Clearly this will mean one thing - a gargantuan amount of buying so that when you go to put your fire on in the depths of October, you have enough fuel to do so. Last year (early Q4 let's say) the gas crisis really took hold of the market. Reading the papers, this was seen as a "massive surprise". I mean it wasn't a surprise. Caitlyn Jenner - that was a surprise. But the "gas crisis", nah, sorry, it was nothing more than poor energy management from most EU member states, in my view. I quote from an excellent Half Time Talk on the Gulf Intelligence last year where Martin Houston, VP of Tellurian Inc, said in JANUARY 2021 that "the market is getting tighter and tighter" and "that the 8 billion people on the planet need gas more than ever". Looking back now the interview is a stark reminder of how complacent Europe was to the "crisis". Back to the original points from Eurasia - this buying we will see from Europe of LNG is going to happen, this will keep the general energy complex supported in much the same way it did last year. Is $100 oil here to stay? Well, if it's "only" $100 come June then we will be lucky. Right, I’m out for a bit, commentary returns to a screen near you on the 11th April. Oh, before I go, at time of sending (1012), Brent is up 1.50, not 0.95.?I don't have eyes big enough to roll.?Be good, be kind, be safe.?Lates.