Oil commentary - 19 September 2023

Morning all, TUESDAY. Brent is trading this morning at $94.96 up 0.53 and WTi is up 0.93 at $92.41. Just as a side, ICE Gasoil futures are trading at $959.25 per mt, which is down $47 per metric ton, or $6 per barrel, quite the drop when crude is up nearly $5 per barrel on the week. Or to translate that into trader talk, apparently “cracks getting sold off mate”. Interesting, and one to keep an eye on. Right then, Brent nearly at $95, Bitcoin (bothered, am I bothered?) at $27,000, Arsenal in the top 4, and the end of summer (supposedly, until I stepped outside last night and my white shirt quickly turned in to a teabag with the humidity) in the Middle East is upon us. Nothing to see here, move on. Hmm. I just want to bring things back to something I mentioned last week about the IEA which I thought was fairly brutal and for which I made an apology in advance but LOOK OUT! Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said yesterday at a congress in Canada "They have moved from being a forecaster and assessor of the market to one practicing political advocacy," Prince Abdulaziz said. Oh Canadaaaaaa! Gulp. I ask you this though, how does the market view these agencies now? They absolutely have a role to play, and their reports are thoroughly detailed and very good, have they not always been on the cusp of advocating politics and views thereof? It’s an interesting one and as events like COP-28 and UN General Assemblies (if anyone attends them anymore) will certainly have a much louder voice in a world that is continuing to fight climate change and with it, what the production and use of fossil fuels mean for a world that want to be zero carbon in a few decades. Blimey, that almost sounded sensible. What else is going on? Well, my colleagues have written some rather splendid articles about what could happen to the gasoil complex over the coming months, if you want to find out more then pls reach out to your friendly neighbourhood Kplerian, but I will leave you with this teaser from my colleague Andon – “…..Either way, pretty constructive outlook for gasoil this winter”. Shameless plug - doesn’t careeeeeeeeee. Good day.