Oil commentary - 18 December 2017

Morning all and I hope everyone had a nice weekend. Brent closed on Friday down 0.08 to $63.23, WTi closed at $57.30 up 0.26 and Bitcoin closed at $17,647.06 up $1,107.70. Keep your eye on Bitcoin with the CME contract now active...Today's cracker - Why was Theresa May sacked as nativity manager? She couldn’t run a stable government. So one week until Christmas day and the market continues to trade sideways. Much to the joy of OPEC producers, Non-OPEC and US shale producers. It seems like the oil market is in the same world as Peppa Pig and her little mates. Everything seems rosy and nice and everyone is rolling on the floor laughing. But what's on the horizon for oil? Well this is the question. I read an interesting piece yesterday regarding the effect the OPEC/Non OPEC cuts have had: "When the deal was first agreed, we were all told that the three exempt nations, Libya, Iran and Nigeria would have no effect on the deal. To date, their production has increased by 729,000 barrels a day. The US Shale industry was only supposed to be able to start increasing production about now, in the fourth quarter of 2017. Instead, they started in October 2016, and soared 1.33 million barrels since" So OPEC/Non OPEC cuts of 2mn bbls has been wiped out and for once the IEA have actually written that they don't really see demanding picking up the pace they initially anticipated and 2018 will continue to show a surplus. One thing I have to doink my trilby to however is the compliance level OPEC have shown throughout this year - 120%. Amazing really. However can this level be sustained? Will the US continue to increase production even though the rig count dropped by 4 last week? Will I be able to continue to eat the same level of twiglets for the coming week? Stay tuned to find out...Good day and week to all.