Oil commentary - 11 February 2022

Morning all and welcome to Friday.?Brent is trading down 0.57 this morning at $90.84 and WTi is trading down 0.40 at $89.48. Brent continues to cling on to $90 oil in the same vein as I cling on to Champions League hopes.?It has all seemed a bit frantic in February, hasn't it??In the oil markets I mean. But when you look at it, it's been fairly boring, we started February trading at $89.62 and we are currently trading just 1.22 over that, however if you read the headlines and listen to the general rhetoric about energy supply then you would be forgiven for thinking that the four horsemen are warming up in the background.?On that note - STAT TIME. I need some kind of jingle there. STAT TIME. doo doo da da da dum.?That'll do.?What do these things have in common? Ozzie Osborne bites the head off a bat on stage. Prince William is born. The Falkland War. Colin Wilson rides a surfboard for 294 miles.?Got it??Not Colin, there's seemingly no catching him. No, all of those events took place in 1982. The last time US inflation was at the highs that were reported yesterday.?It seems like a very long time ago that Jerome Powell was referring to inflation as "transitory".?Well, Powelly, look at this from the research guys at Emirates NBD "While higher energy costs were still a major contributor to this high inflation figure (1.7pp), inflation appears to be coming more entrenched as core inflation rose to 6.0%, from 5.5% in December. Prices were 0.6% higher than in December both on the core and headline measures.".?Hmm, not transitory then. These figures were digested by the oil markets in the most schizophrenic nature possible and the rest of yesterday’s afternoon post inflation numbers was filled with yeah, nahs and mine yours.?Volatility yesterday was, quite frankly, pretty bloomin frightening - STAT TIME doo dah, oh forget it.?At 530 UAE time Brent was trading at $92.48. At 6pm it was $90.89. 630pm $92.40. The at the close it was $91.41.?Quite how any trader can take a view on this market right now is very difficult to opine on.?With such volatility a lot of participants may just sit this out and wait for the next cue - where does that come from??Arguably geopolitical tensions are keeping things supported right now, but if things are diplomatically resolved then is that the cue for a sell off??Hmmm.?Let's see what happens.?Have a great weekend.