Oil commentary - 1 March 2021

Morning all and I hope everyone had a good weekend. Brent is trading this morning at $65.67 up 1.24 and WTi is trading up 1.17 at $62.66. Socrates once famously said "The secret of happiness, you see, is not found in seeking more, but in developing the capacity to enjoy less". I like that, and I think it sums up the last year quite nicely.  I say nicely in the loosest of sense of course. I know I keep referring back to "this time last year" but it has been such an extraordinary twelve months that I fear if we don't roll back the clocks then a massive sense of perspective will be lost. This time last year Brent was trading at $51.90. So, we're a good 25% higher year on year. Now, about eleven months ago (12th April to be exact) I wrote a few pages on the upcoming OPEC meeting and its absolute importance. OPEC are due to meet in three days’ time (I will be writing a similar piece so keep your eyes out for that) and I would argue that the meeting is just as important as the historical production cuts they announced last April. Let's bear in mind that on the 9th March 2020 Brent suffered its worst day in history as a much ill-timed dispute between Russia and Saudi Arabia yielded a drop of $10.91 per bbl in one day. Let's also bear in mind that on the 20th April WTi had its worst day as the US crude system ran out of room and WTi traded down to NEGATIVE $37.63 per barrel. I still find that difficult to digest now to be honest. Who plays the lead role in "WTi: The movie"? Idris Elba gets my vote with Steve Carrell the wally trader who was on the wrong side of that trade. Who doesn't want to watch that? Anywayyy, back to the OPEC meeting. All eyes are on what happens, my guess is we see production come back but Saudi cushion any shock news. But if you really want to know my opinion, then you'll have to read it when it’s published Wednesday. Oooooohhh excited? Yeah, nah, thought so. Good day, and week to all.