Oh, what fun it is to rank

The Christmas celebration is getting earlier and earlier every year. Despite the plethora of stats in the rest of this article, I have no data to support that claim. But between the neighbors' lights (which went up before Halloween this year), the trees and inflatables in Costco (also before Halloween), and the start of the usual triggers like the Starbucks cups and salvation army bell ringers, suffice it to say we are firmly in the Christmas season.

Grumble as we may, though, the reality is…it's our own fault. All of the premature Christmas cheer is driven by consumers. According to a recent NRF study , 45% of consumers start their holiday shopping before November. Which really means they're in the holiday mindset Halloween has even hit, let alone waiting for the Thanksgiving dinner to be cleared from the table. For brands, that means you too need to be in the holiday mindset early and start connecting with consumers now.?

Why? Well not only is average spend per consumer expected to increase 4% this year to over $900 , but according to Nielsen 90% of purchase decisions are made from a consumer's initial consideration set. Forget Santa's list - if you're not on your consumer's nice list, you're going to end up with a whole bunch of coal in your bottom line.

I know what you're thinking. "But Greg, we already spend a ton on holiday advertising, pushing our holiday promotions." And to some extent, that will work. Sixty-eight percent of holiday shoppers are motivated by price and value , and nearly a third (30%) will only make holiday purchases with a promotion or discount.

But I think only focusing on your bottom-funnel performance initiatives misses a larger opportunity to establish your brand as a partner to the holiday experience. While consumers are definitely motivated by price and promotions, 69% are worried about making the wrong purchase when it comes to holiday gift giving.

That gives brands a tremendous opening to do more than simply offer consumers a 20% off coupon. It's an opportunity to provide more meaningful value, to provide peace of mind and assurance and expertise that not only drives people to buy your product, but to feel good about it as well. And guess what? When consumers feel confident about a purchase they're six times more likely to buy from that brand again, and 18 times more likely to recommend that brand to others.

So where does a brand start? By understanding where you are on a consumer's holiday shopping list. Are you even in the realm of consideration, or are you fighting for that 10% sliver of consumers willing to depart from their initial list? And if you are fortunate enough to be on the list, where exactly do you fall relative to the other choices consumers have (i.e. your competitors)??

At Nativo Inc , we measure that with something we call Brand Rank. We use a simple, single-question survey where we ask consumers which brand/product they're most likely to consider from a range of options. For brands, it helps them understand where they rank with consumers compared to their competitors.? By leveraging consideration, we're able to capture a lot of what matters in the 'middle' - from familiarity to favorability, relevance to value-alignment, consideration encapsulates lot of what's necessary to move a consumer from being aware of a brand to purchasing it.?

So using that technology, we decided to run a bunch of baseline studies to understand how consumers are thinking about various holiday purchases. Rather than ask overall consideration questions, we asked consumers about their consideration set when they're buying for themselves, for their coworkers, and for a loved one. The assumption was that consumers preferences would shift based on the gift giving occasion, given the likely shift in priorities around things like price, value, brand image, quality, etc. So let's take a look and see if we were right.

Season’s Sweetings: Unwrapping Holiday Chocolate trends

According to a study by Lindt (ok ok, there's mayyyybe some bias here), more than 50% of consumers plan on buying chocolate during the holiday season. And I personally keep a bar of sea salt chocolate on my desk at all times, so naturally I wanted to see how consumers' perception of chocolate brands differs based on their buying occasion.

At the outset, we see that Hersey's absolutely crushes the competition when it comes to self indulgence in chocolate: nearly half of consumers select Hersey as their top considered chocolate. And that makes sense - it's cheap, readily available at the checkout counter in numerous stores to cash-in on that impulse buy, and it's reliable - you know what you're going to get.?

What we see, however, is that lead over the competition quickly starts to degrade as you move to gifting for coworkers (where perhaps you don't want to seem cheap) and especially loved ones (Hershey's doesn't exactly scream luxurious). Now, Hersey's is only the top choice cholate for a third of consumers looking to buy a gift for a loved one, as the other brands are starting to surge.

What's a brand to do with these results? Let's take a look at some practical suggestions for both Hersey's and the competitor brands.

For Hersey's

1. Focus on extending the lead further. Having 50% of consumers pick you as their top choice is great, but also means half of consumers are reaching for something else to satisfy their chocolate cravings. Double down on the reliable, readily-available-everywhere experience of breaking off those rectangular bars and sinking your teeth in
2. Position Hersey's as an integral part of the holiday experience A series of testimonials featuring family traditions that integrate Hersey's (e.g. tree-shaped Reese's, chopped up Heresy's bars for the chips in Santa's cookies) A holiday gift guide where Hersey's is the must-have accessory - like a s'mores kit for a Solo stove, hot cocoa supplies for a new set of mugs, or popcorn and candy for a movie night in front of the new flat screen TV. Establish Heresy's as the focal point of experiential gifts - a family huddling around home-made fondue using Hersey's chocolate, while snowflakes float down outside through the window?

For the other brands:

1. Give people permission to indulge and treat themselves with the gift of an elevated chocolate experience, especially during the stress of the holidays Combine that with the love of promotions by offering a BOGO - one for a friend and one for you, because you deserve it too
2. Establish your brand as THE go-to chocolate gift for the holidays A playful holiday gifting guide for co-workers - '5 gifts for your coworker that they won't hate' An interactive article: 'what kind of chocolate are you' experience

Opening Pandora's Box: The Season’s most-liked Jewelry

Another staple of holiday gifting is jewelry. For this one I decided to look at a subset of the results for respondents with a household income of $100,000 or more.?

With jewelry we see a slightly different journey for the top brands. Pandora starts out at a strong number one position, as the top choice for 40% of consumers. Unlike Hersey's with chocolate, that lead increases when it comes to coworkers, and then falls off pretty substantially when it comes to buying jewelry for loved ones.

So what's happening here? Pandora jewelry seems to be a bit of a polarizing figure in the market. People absolutely love the personalized, collecting nature of a charm bracelet, or they wouldn't be caught dead wearing one. We see that split in each of the buying occasions and the shifts in brand rank. When buying for oneself, the market is split on personalized charm and more elevated, classic jewelry options like Kay and Cartier. Those more sophisticated brands become far less appropriate when buying for a coworker, and then come swinging back at the top of the consideration for loved ones, where again the buyer is likely dealing with a recipient who has a very strong opinion on Pandora one way or another.

I will say, Pandora has done a tremendous job trying to break down resistance and find more people to charm. From Disney partnerships to remaking the in-store experience, Pandora saw 15% growth in sales in Q2 and is certainly striking a chord with a large swath of the population. What else could Pandora, and the other brands, be doing in reaction to these rankings?

For Pandora, I think they need to lean into the dual benefit of a personalized gift that works for anyone and everyone on your list, while continuing to improve their brand image. Some specific ideas include:

1. A practical gift guide featuring different items and charm combinations to check everyone off your list
2. An interactive quiz to find the right items based on the intended recipient - whether that's yourself or otherwise
3. Highly visual messaging that elevates the brand positioning - shifting the perception to a quality, elegant piece with personalized charm(s) (pun intended)

For the other brands, I would suggest the opposite approach: really leaning into that concern about buying the wrong gift, and positioning their brand as the no-brainer that the recipient is sure to love. Specifically:

1. Fear-inducing pieces reminding people to 'not just buy anything,' and instead make sure you're getting a timeless piece s/he will love forever
2. A sophisticated gift guide for that special someone, highlighting a variety of options at different price points - both that compete with brands like Pandora, and that separate the brand as a more luxurious option

Prime Picks: Consumers' Gift Card Preferences?

When all else fails, or in the event you realize you forgot to get your mother in law a gift as you're en route to Christmas dinner (I couldn't possibly be speaking from experience here), there's the age old, sacred tradition of giving someone a gift card. In fact, 40% of holiday shoppers plan on buying gift cards this year. So let's take a look at what they're buying.?

At the outset, we see that people seem to be leaning far more toward the flexible 'let them pick what they want' value of gift cards rather than specific stores or restaurants. That motivating is amplified as consumers shift from their personal preference for Amazon gift cards to the truly universally flexible prepaid Mastercard/Visa card.

For Amazon, my suggestion would be to lean into the ease. I'm personally one of those people who buys digital amazon gift cards when I'm given prepaid cards. I find the prepaid cars a pain to use elsewhere, and with two kids and basically daily Amazon deliveries, it's the easiest way for me to take advantage of the gift, especially since I don't have to worry about trying to spend the exact amount at a place, or end up $7.16 left over that I'm never going to use.?

For the prepaid card providers, I'd suggest a slightly different route. Tap into the truly flexible power of prepaid cards and the ability to use them anywhere. This could look like:

• 5 great experiences to gift this Christmas, enabled by prepaid cards (e.g. a boys golf trip, a spa date with friends, drinks on a rooftop, a pottery class, etc.).?
• A playful piece dissuading consumers from 'gifting the basics' that people inevitably buy with Amazon gift cards, and enabling the recipient to treat themself

Similar to these suggestions, and some of the ideas for Hersey's, the rest of the gift card options - the restaurants and stores and such, would do well to position their value as the gift of an experience:

1. Date night for a sibling and their spouse where you'll also volunteer to watch the kids that night. Doubles down on the value of the gift card, by providing ease of use literally (paying for the dinner) and in enabling the experience in the first place.
2. Ideas for local experiences (museums, shows, etc.) to make new memories with our loved ones
3. A funny side-by-side piece comparing a teen's reaction to opening a pack of socks to enjoying a night out watching their favorite basketball team live?

Now Dasher! Now Dancer! On Donder, and Giftin'

As the holiday season heats up, it’s clear that gift-giving is as much about the experience as it is about the item itself. From Hershey’s chocolate bringing families together around the fire to the simplicity of gift cards granting ultimate flexibility, brands have a unique opportunity to be a memorable part of every holiday moment. And that opportunity starts now (or really, probably started a few weeks ago). So whether you're marketing indulgent treats, timeless jewelry, or the promise of endless possibilities in a prepaid card, consider how your brand can transcend being just a gift, and elevate the holiday experience for gifter and recipient alike. This year, it’s not just about what’s wrapped under the tree—it’s about creating memories that last well beyond the season.