The Offset Wildwest

"It'll be fine - just get an offset"

I nearly caught myself saying this two days ago when I was flying to India to learn more about wind renewables with The Converging World . Luckily I realised the path I was about to go on and realised I needed to get honest with myself and start getting educated.

So what is an offset?

An offset is paying money for someone, somewhere to take carbon out of the air to make up for carbon you are putting into the atmosphere. These are sold as "carbon credits" on global trading markets or on websites.

What can an offset be made?

How offsets are done varies enormously. At one end of the spectrum it could include planting trees on otherwise barren land - a very good and positive example as growing trees directly takes carbon out of the air, reduces soil erosion, increases soil biodiversity and can even have a positive impact on local microclimates. Trees can also increase habitat, produce food and help restore aquifers. If a tree was a modern invention it would raise unicorn-levels of funding pretty quickly!

At the other of the spectrum an offset could be obtained by not cutting down rainforests. No joke, there are big companies that claim to make burning fossil fuels OK by not actively destroying rainforest. Not growing new rainforest, just choosing to not cut down the existing ones! That is like me saying I am animal lover because I didn't butally murder any puppies today. And by not murdering puppies in my town it is OK to go and kill a few in a neighbouring town - and I still get to be an animal-lover because of my prior puppy-murdering-self-restraint.

Somewhere in the middle is "Carbon avoidance" which is where the action in question doesn't directly reduce carbon emissions, but helps avoid carbon emissions elsehwere. What I am seeing in Tamil Nadu right now is exactly this - India has some of the dirtest electricity on the planet as it is mainly produced through burning low grade coal with minimal exhaust treatment. Their "grid emission factor" is circa 4x the UK - that means they put four times as much emissions into the atmosphere per unit of energy as the UK does. So when we put up wind turbines in India which have near-zero marginal emissions we are reducing the burning of coal and therefore the emissions associated with that.

Why are we always talking about carbon?

This is a question I recently asked my friend Simon Pyne as it seemed odd to only focus on one particular partical. Especially considering that carbon is essential for all life on earth. Simon explained that the reason is that carbon is a very good proxy indicator of what damage the action in question is doing. When we burn carbon we tend to also be doing other stuff which is not good for the planet.

Looking at carbon is a little bit like how we focus on calories in our food. With no calories we die, with too many we get fat. Calories, like carbon, are an imperfect and narrow measurement of health, but it is a very good starting point and certainly better than nothing. We need and like a number to measure stuff.

So what's wrong with offsets?

Looping back to my pleasant business-class, air-miles-fuelled BA flight yesterday from Heathrow to Chennai (circa 7tCO2) it is important to note that every second those turbofan engines were spinning we were emitting masses of carbon. I did the flight and the carbon is immediately in the atmosphere causing climate change, displacing other gasses and increasing air particulates.

So let's say I go and buy an offset when I land. Let's say it is a really good one that plants loads of native trees on otherwise barren land. Those trees are going to take a long to grow and it is the growth that takes carbon out of the air. I emitted the carbon on the day I bought the offsets, but the carbon may take 10+ year to be taken out of the atmosphere. That means nine years of my actions adding carbon to the atmosphere until eventually it is gone. In this time there is likely to be a lot of long-lasting damage.

Depending on what studies and media you read, you may believe that we simply dont have ten years. That being so, offsetting simply doesn't work.

And it gets worse: if people think that buying an offset gets rid of environmental damage they may increase their carbon-emitting because there is no percieved environmental cost. Some closely related resource theories are interesting to read such as Jevon's Paradox and Parinson's Law.

What about certified carbon offsets?

Right now there are a lot of carbon offset "certifications" and "authorities". I wont cite them in this article as I dont want this to be a shaming-piece, nor to get into a debate about the indvidual efficiacy of each body (there is already plenty of stuff online if you search it up).

None of these, and I mean NONE, have any statuatory obligations. None are governed by actual law. There also isnt a great deal of "custom and practice" which could form something of an ad-hoc regulation. They make their own rules. So at the moment anyone can create a "carbon certification body" - as long as the target audience accepts these as legimiate you are all good to go!

They are a bit like most trade bodies - they often do nothing other than give a thin veneer of credibility to their members who pay a few bucks to put the logo on their headed paper. Worst still, some trade bodies enable appalling trade practices and displace meaningful statuatory regulation - a good example of this is the Portman Group and Drink Aware in the UK which effectively self-regulate the advertising of alcohol with disastrous social consequences. That said, there are some excellent trade bodies such as NICEIC (electrical industry) and RIBA (architects) who ensure compliance with regulations, drive quality and whose membership truely is a mark of quality. But I digress.....

Global Offsets United (GOU) is a good example of an offsets provider - a great brand whose catchphrase is "Creating a zero carbon future". GOU identifies the most efficient global carbon-offsetting opportunities and deploys their crowdfunded resources to mitigate these emissions; thereby enabling them to sell their carbon credits to customers wanting to be more sustainable.

Their logo (below) is green and it has a leaf on it. It looks perfect to put on the bumber sticker of your diesel-guzzling van or on your headed paper.

Perfect, right!?!

Here is the logo

Global Offsets United is entirely fictituous. I used a free-logo generator to make it in under a minute and wrote the above copy off-the-cuff. But for many people this would look and feel legitimate; something that can be trusted; a license to do what you want guilt-free and take zero meaningful action nor adjust your behaviour in any way.

The punchline here is that there is nothing stopping anyone from setting up something like Global Offsets United. It's a lot like making cryptocurrency - an often-meaningless voucher that people are tricked into paying for despite it has no utility or underlying value; to then be sold on global "exchanges" that look and feel like a legimate place to do business.

The Real Issue

Offset certifications are vague and undefined standards. Your offsets are valid as long as your target audience thinks they are. OneCoin is a great case study. No one is really checking. Convincing many people your offsets are good is easy and the standard of scrutiny is very low or nonexistent. Global Offsets United (above) would keep a lot of people happy despite being entirely fake. Big companies are getting fooled too. For example Shell, Gucci and Disney have all been had by dodgy offsets - learn more in this excellent article.

So What To Do?

First off, stop thinking (as I did yesterday) that buying an offset or carbon credit is a catch-all solution. Offsets should only be used as last resort when everything else has been done

Step 1 - Start by reducing the carbon-emitting activity. Such as avoiding that flight, getting away from combustion engines, removing your gas supply.

Step 2 - Then you can look at doing the actions more efficiently. For example lowering the temperature of a building, being more logistically efficient, investing in energy-efficient tech

Step 3 - know where you are at with data. Find out what your emissions were before these two steps, then what they were after. As my buddy and mentor Dale Vince wisely told me "data settles arguments".

Those two steps might make a bigger difference than you think.

Now maybe buy some offsets - but which ones? I advise against our beloved "Global Offsets United" and suggest you look elsewhere. When we buy offsets we need to dig deep into the meaningful actions that qualify these offsets to exist.

Anyone who has worked with me knows that I focus on action and evidence a lot. Talk is cheap and there is a lot of blagging out there - so ask "what has this provider actually done that is meaningul" and then look at the data. Then scrutinise to see if there is any potential for mis-reporting, fraud, bribery or adverse unintended consequences. While the UK is generally a very straight-up and honest place, much of the world is not, so be critical and dont be afraid to ask the tough questions. As my very wise mother in law told me "People are always vague for a reason" so when you get a sniff of vagueness, that is your cue to ask more questions.

Greenwashing Allegation Risk

This is a risk for anyone doing anything they feel is environmentally progressive. Those who got rid of strays years back are already being ripped apart as "greenwashers". We are early days in this movement and as the world wakes up we will find that a lot of schemes and approaches are not as good as we thought. This is a contingent risk we need to eliminate.

The way to do this is through transparency and honesty. Whatever you do make sure you are honest and transparent about it. These are two virtues which drive authenticity and give a level of immunity to future scrutiny. For example instead of "we are the most sustainable company in our sector. Here is some numbers evidencing that" approach with something more like "We care a lot and are doing what we can. Here are the problems we saw and here is what we are doing to fix them." Then follow-up with indepth evidence, data, storytelling and other content that truthfully and honestly shares what you are doing. Be open to scrutiny, debate and even criticism.

Also, make sure you question the credentials of so-called experts. Actions matter, talk is cheap. Which leads me on to.....

What am I doing?

I am not at all perfect, or even good, when it comes to environmental impact. But I do whatever positive things and I can, as well as be honest with myself at all times. Here is the bad stuff I do:

• I flew out to india and back this week - but I hope this will enable me to do more positive environmental work
• I have started eating meat again, but only really good and sustainable stuff - because it is important to me to build muscle mass
• My construction work, while as efficient as possible, produces a lot of waste and uses a lot of virgin materials - but this usually results in efficient buildings.

But here is the good stuff my companies and I are doing

• I founded SolCell Renewables which is a mobile zero-carbon power station for events. It's pretty cool, check it out.
• I built Bristol's biggest off-grid power station at Skyline Park BS4 largely using upcycled batteries
• I bought an island where we plant trees and encourage people to benefit from the countryside for free. Check it out Warleigh Weir Project
• In all my proerties developments with Autonomous Investments I remove gas supplies and replace with Solar powered ASHPs where possible. This recently led to achieving an EPC of A3 on one of my industrial properties.
• PYTCH , one of my portfolio companies, is industry leading on sustainability, thanks to Jordan Tomkins , and will hopefully achieve its B Lab UK status very soon.I had fun with an epic upcycling project with PYTCHAir.

I wish you all fun in your decarbonising journeys. I am always happy to contribute to other people's actions and love public speaking - so let me know if I can help.