In Odisha, TINA messes the State

In my home State, there is depressing news from Kalahandi that Dana Majhi had to carry the dead body of his wife for a distance of 10 kms because no vehicle was available to transport his wife's body.

While there may be many perspectives of this sad story which includes Government and Social apathy, one fact is clear, Odisha has been struggling to perform post 2009 after a slowdown in Global commodity prices. At the beginning of this year, I published a comprehensive piece on the mismanagement of the State, with emphasis on agriculture, education and industry. In March this year, the State Government announced that with a growth of about 6.16% the State would continue to underperform the rest of the country on account of the drought of 2015. What the State Government failed to explain was the inefficient investments it made in irrigation since 2000

One of the primary reasons for this lack of growth is what the State has done with its irrigation investments over the last 16 years. Until 2012, there was tremendous focus on large irrigation projects all of which had poor coverage, poor implementation and hence value for money. While States like MP focussed a lot of their effort on Minor irrigation projects and Groundwater. The results are obvious. Inspite of substantial investments, Odisha struggled on growth in irrigated area (This is a State that receives about 1500 mm of rainfall in an average year)

All these botch ups in agriculture meant that an already poor State now had double digit inflation in the poorest rural parts of the State. 

Sameness of Strategy and Lack of Opposition

The real issue is actually Political. Naveen Patnaik has been in power since 2000 and is likely to retain power in 2019 unless the Opposition comes up with a solid alternative. Essentially, the BJD playbook has remained the Same irrespective of the changing external circumstances (low commodity prices, monsoon issues, lack of funding liquidity etc). The emphasis has been on an inefficient social agenda based on handouts instead of efficient investments in agriculture, hugh quality of education and rapid industrialisation. While the handouts have legitimately helped many voters, the high degree of illiteracy, slow pace of investments and the dreadful pace of agriculture growth suggests that the BJD's priorities are driven by playing safe electoral politics instead of dramatically changing the face of a very talented and resourceful State. The POSCO fiasco is an example of a State Government that has played safe thereby forcing numerous citizens to seek opportunities outside the State

The Gap between the struggling Congress party and BJD is about 18% point while between BJP and BJD is about 26% points. Any of the challenger parties that wants to wrest power from the BJD will need to swing 5-10% points from each of BJD and the other rival to overcome the BJD. These kinds of huge swings are not common in State elections, particularly when the incumbent enjoys a huge lead and commands some respect amongst voters. 

Border Districts and ST Seats - Achilles Heel

In our previous analysis we found voting behaviour to be quite different in border districts of most States and in Odisha too we find that the border districts are most likely to be the cause of the BJD's defeat one day. 

While BJD wins a fair share of its seats from the border districts, the border districts are over represented amongst the vulnerable seats (defined as seats won with less than 10% gap versus competition)

This is particularly due to the large concentration of ST seats where the BJD struggles the most. While it wins a fair share of seats from ST constituencies, BJD ST constituencies are nearly twice likely to be more vulnerable that their other seats.

Still, swinging these 47 vulnerable seats alone would not be enough for two reasons. a. The BJD is still likely to be close to majority on its own and b. The vulnerable seats are likely to be split between the BJP and the Congress party pushing either or both of them to alliance talks with the BJD. 

The City Vulnerabilities

There are about 20 urban constituencies in Odisha, many of which are strongholds of the BJD. Still, given the overall slowdown in the economy and the lack of opportunities in the State, atleast 10 of these constituencies could be classified as vulnerable should there be a quality alternative to Naveen Patnaik. The loss of 10 of these seats will build huge momentum for the Party that gains most of the above 47 as well as these 10. For example, Should the Congress win 40 out of the these 57 seats, its net tally would be about 56, closer to majority. Similarly, should the BJP win 40 out of these 57 seats, its net tally would be 50, about 10 less than BJP and with substantial momentum and leverage. 

Destruction of the Third Party

In my view, none of the Challengers - Congress or BJP can win Odisha unless they decimate the Other. 14 out of the 16 Congress constituencies can be classified as vulnerable. 8 out of the 10 BJP constituencies can be classified as vulnerable. Should either of these parties make a good case as the primary rival against the BJD, another 5-10 seats could come from these vulnerable constituencies taking the overall tally to about 60-65 giving the parties a great chance to form the next Government. 

It is clear that the road to Bhubaneswar is arduous and the Congress and BJP will need to string a variety of elements - a charismatic leader who appeals to tribals and city folks alike, an alternate vision of Odisha that does a better job of harnessing the State's potential and motivated ground workers who can go head to head with BJD workers. Unless that happens, Odisha could go the Bengal way, another 5 years of BJD, another 5 years of underperformance.