The odds of a Russian default just jumped

Happy Wednesday, readers.?Russia has been flirting with a default for several months now, but a new development may push the nation over the edge.?

Here we go.???

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1. The US is expected to fully block Russia's dollar bond payments,?Bloomberg reported Tuesday .?

The Treasury is expected to?let a key sanction waiver expire ?on May 25 — the exception that has allowed Russia to continue?paying investors ?and skirt default.

Once it expires, the?odds of Russia defaulting on its debt will surge .?

What's more, G7 and EU countries are weighing seizures?of Russian central bank assets for?Ukraine aid. ?

But the?Kremlin has rebuked the effort , calling it "illegal, blatant and of course requiring an appropriate response…It would be, in fact, outright theft."

In addition to facing a historic default, two top oil execs say Russia will likely be?shut out permanently ?from global energy markets. The shock of another war on European soil will be a wake up call for the continent, one executive said.?

"What has happened is so shocking,?that I think they will not be lulled into complacency around?acquiring energy from Russia ?in the future."

Still, amid war and sanctions,?smaller, under-the-radar companies ?have emerged since other major carriers have shunned Russian supplies. Among them is a little-known company?called Bellatrix. ?The company has transported nearly 3 million barrels of Russian oil in May alone.

In other news:

2. The chief market strategist at a $5 billion firm shared which stocks to buy that can tactically play the market.?These picks, she explained, can yield long-and short-term gains ahead of a 2023?recession .?See her list of 7 stocks.

3. These 10 COVID-beneficiary stocks are trading at a "meaningful discount."?They are well-positioned, Morgan Stanley said, to outperform long-term, even though investors are ditching pandemic darlings.?Here are the firm's top picks.?

4. Investors have "bolted the lifeboats to the Titanic," one top fund manager said.?Salem Abraham can't rule out the scenario where stocks drop 25% in one day.?These two risks are what have him most concerned.?

5. The world's two top currencies are on the verge of parity for the first time in 20 years.?An economist told Insider that it signals a lack of faith in the euro area economy.?See why he thinks parity could be reached within a month.?

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