Odds are Rising for a 'Double Dip'

Are we headed for a double dip recession?

Roger Ferguson, CEO of money manager TIAA, says the odds "have gone up."

“The overall economy is roughly 3% or so smaller now than it was at the end of last year, and certainly many sectors are still struggling," Ferguson says. "And even though the unemployment rate has come down, we still have 10 million Americans unemployed and we are worried about long term unemployed." He believes Congress needs to act quickly on a second round of stimulus to prevent a second downturn.

Ferguson was this week's guest on Fortune's Leadership Next podcast. He's stepping down from his job running the $1.2 trillion asset manager in March, but he's been widely mentioned as a potential pick in the administration of President-elect Joe Biden. While he wasn't part of the first round draft, I'm still putting my money on him. He's a seasoned operator with a steady temperament. If nothing else comes up before then, he could become the first African-American Chair of the Federal Reserve Board when Jerome Powell's term expires early in 2022.

Ellen McGirt and I asked Ferguson about how the pandemic has affected American society. His answer:

“This series of crises that we’ve seen…a health crisis, an economic crisis, and a racial justice crisis…have all highlighted the deep inequities that exist across many dimensions. To me the most telling statistic is that African Americans make up approximately 13% of the population but approximately 23% of those who have died from COVID-19.”

He's an advocate of building back the economy with social goals more clearly in target. For too long, he says, too many companies have prioritized short-term profit over long-term sustainability and stakeholder value. “No long-term strategy is viable if it is not consistent with the best kinds of environmental and social governance behaviors,” he said.

You can listen to the full interview on Apple or Spotify. And check out the whole season of Leadership Next interviews here.