ODDO BHF Experts’ Insights
This month, Bruno Cavalier examines the major challenges facing Europe in the European elections in June. Greater integration in the financial sphere could improve capital allocation and encourage investment, particularly in key areas such as defense, technology and the energy transition.
Laurent DENIZE examines the consequences that the Trump-Biden choice could have for Europe, looking at four areas of action: trade policy, fiscal policy, climate and security. He analyses the potential impact on European markets in macroeconomic, asset allocation and sectoral terms.
Finally, Antoine Chacun explains the decisive role of metallurgy in industrial transition and the policy that Europe should follow. A move away from fossil fuels can only be achieved with massive electrification, and therefore huge investment in metals.
We hope you enjoy this insightful read!
Europe at the polls: what’s at stake for the future?
By Bruno Cavalier, Chief Economist, ODDO BHF
As it happens every five years, EU (European Union) citizens are called to elect the members of the European Parliament, on 6-9 June. The Parliament shares legislative powers with the EU Council (it votes on laws and the budget) and has powers of scrutiny over the Commission. At the first election of this kind, in 1979, the EU, which was then called the European Economic Community, consisted of just nine countries. This election was a democratic innovation with an average turnout of 62%.
US election - What to expect from Trump Season 2
By Laurent Denize, Co-Chief Investment Officer, ODDO BHF
Even if the protagonists are already known, the rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump will once again captivate the world until 5 November. The two candidates are neck-and-neck in the opinion polls and there is no clear favorite now. In geopolitical terms, such as support for Ukraine or the future of NATO, a second Trump presidency could have some consequences. Although recent history suggests that geopolitical noise typically had little lasting impact on markets, at least in the developed world, as policy and the business cycle prevail, the specter of Trump Season 2 could have a greater impact on investor sentiment in the coming months.
Metallurgy, the main tool of the industrial transition
By Antoine Chacun, managing director, ODDO BHF Metals
“In the next 30 years, we will have extracted as much [metals] as since the start of humanity!” – Philippe Varin in his report on Securing the Supply of Mineral Raw Materials.
At several decisive moments in our history, metallurgy has played a critical role in developing human civilizations, including during the Bronze Age (-3000/-1200 BC) and the Iron Age (-1200/-550 BC). However, its role has been somewhat overlooked since we entered the fossil fuel era, powered by coal in the 19th century and, even more so, by oil and gas in the 20th and 21st centuries.
PRIVATE EQUITY 101 [German]
In our new video webserie about Private equity, Marc Tavakolian analyses in 10 episodes the basics of Private Equity, from what is Private Equity, to risk and benefit of Private Equity, until the impact of ELTIF on the democratization of the Private Equity sector.
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