October Surprise?

I’ll start off by admitting that this October Committed to Growth newsletter really isn’t one and would probably be better described as a series of half thoughts or jumping off points for future editions. The reason for this is that I can’t shake the feeling that October 2024 hasn’t really been that surprising but rather seems like my usual topics: jobs, financials, and markets are just hanging out there in suspension… it’s almost like we’re waiting on the results of a highly contested presidential election or something?!

In any event, and regardless of the outcome in early November, I figure there's no harm in sharing three topics that are on my mind even if they're not completely fleshed out.?

First, remote vs. in-office work. By 2023 I truly thought this debate had been settled and that the majority of the US workplaces had adopted the hybrid schedule with 5-days a week in-office and 100% remote being within a standard deviation from the norm. Walmart and Amazon’s recent full RTO announcements, however, shattered that consensus and reignited the debate around the relationship between physical presence and productivity. Though some publications and thought leaders have called RTO inevitable, I think we might be at the beginning of a more layered dialogue around remote work where managerial structures, workflows, and results are more important considerations than disease transmission.?

Second, I think we’re all still trying to understand the true nature of our current interest rate and inflationary context. Both are obviously going down (whoot!) but the timeline and implications on the marketplace remains unclear. What I do know, however, was that 2022 was palpably frothy while 2023 and 2024 were proportionately choppy. All the major economic indicators seem to be pointing to a soft landing and a more positive, growth oriented business cycle ahead. As I’m sick of drinking champagne just because I like the taste, I personally can’t wait.?

Third, the job market is improving but I’ll refrain from claiming that it’s piping hot. If you yourself, friends, or family are of working age, chances are that you have experienced some degree of unemployment, underemployment, or job insecurity in the last eighteen months. Recent JOLTS reports, unemployment numbers, and hiring activity indicate that this is changing but I think it’s still too early to draw any full conclusions. That said, I’ve been outwardly cautious on the topic for much of 2024 so I am pleased to be shifting to a more bullish tone and am confident 2025 will be a strong year.?

So, that’s where my heads at, suspended and eagerly waiting for the post election future to get underway. I think we can handle a more nuanced approach to remote work and all deserve an improved economy and job market. I’m going to vote on November 5th and then, unsurprisingly, just go back to work.

Thanks for reading and please feel free to reach out if you'd care to discuss any of this further, explore new opportunities, or hire with the Illyrian Group .

Corbin

312.544.9237 | [email protected]

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